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Measuring a Roller Coaster

Measuring a Roller Coaster »

Source: Measuring a Roller Coaster : Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap

Volume/Issue: 2004/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2004

ISBN: 9781451847802

Keywords: output gap, inflation forecasting, unemployment, unemployment rate, forecasting, statistics, rate of unemployment, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods...

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Source: Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 October 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616351298.086

ISBN: 9781616351298

Keywords: Economic recovery, Energy prices, Commodity prices, Economic forecasting, Economic conditions, Spillovers, South Sudan, Regional Economic Outlook, Foreign direct investment, Monetary policy

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and eco...

Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output1

Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output1 »

Source: Estimating Sri Lanka's Potential Output

Volume/Issue: 2014/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , John Nelmes , Roshan Perera , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 March 2014

ISBN: 9781484333938

Keywords: Output Gap, Multivariate Filter, inflation, unemployment rate, equilibrium unemployment, equilibrium unemployment rate, Time-Series Models, Forecasting and Other Model Applications,

In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka's potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusiv...

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve? »

Source: Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?

Volume/Issue: 2016/126

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stefan Laseen , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 July 2016

ISBN: 9781498348645

Keywords: Phillips curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Financial Frictions, Conditional Forecast, Regime Switching and Bayesian Estimation.

Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models...

Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area

Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area »

Source: Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area

Volume/Issue: 2016/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Huidan Lin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2016

ISBN: 9781513586175

Keywords: Potential growth, Deleveraging, Downside scenario, debt, investment, unemployment, inflation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications,, Europe, Euro Area

This paper discusses the risks of stagnation over the medium term in the euro area. It examines the consequences of longer-term growth trends that predate the crisis and the progress made in addressing the crisis l...

What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U.S. Data? Decomposing the Labor Wedge

What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U.S. Data? Decomposing the Labor Wedge »

Source: What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U.S. Data? Decomposing the Labor Wedge

Volume/Issue: 2017/201

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dmitry Plotnikov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 September 2017

ISBN: 9781484318584

Keywords: Unemployment, United States, Western Hemisphere, Business cycles, labor wedge, Forecasting and Simulation, Demand and Supply, Energy and the Macroeconomy

I carry out a business cycle accounting exercise (Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan, 2007) on the U.S. data measured in wage units (Farmer (2010)) for the entire postwar period. In contrast to a conventional approach, thi...

Technology and the Future of Work

Technology and the Future of Work »

Source: Technology and the Future of Work

Volume/Issue: 2018/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adrian Peralta-Alva , and Agustin Roitman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

ISBN: 9781484374979

Keywords: Unemployment, Employment, Technological innovation, Labor markets, Income distribution, Technology, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, Forecasting and Simulation, General

This paper uses a DSGE model to simulate the impact of technological change on labor markets and income distribution. It finds that technological advances offers prospects for stronger productivity and growth, but...

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold »

Source: Chronicle of a Decline Foretold : Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?

Volume/Issue: 2013/26

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mitali Das , and Papa N'Diaye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475548242

Keywords: Excess labor supply, Lewis Turning Point, Population aging, Demographics, labor supply, labor force, labor market, labor demand, unemployment, General

China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a pre...

Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter1

Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter1 »

Source: Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

Volume/Issue: 2010/285

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2010

ISBN: 9781455210923

Keywords: Output Gap, Structural Government Deficits, Cyclical Government Deficits, nairu, unemployment rate, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Forecasting and Other Model Applications,

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the eu...