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Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty »

Source: Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

Volume/Issue: 2017/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ezgi Ozturk , and Xuguang Simon Sheng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

ISBN: 9781484316597

Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing Model; Common Uncertainty; Consensus Forecasts; Idiosyncratic Uncertainty; Global Uncertainty; Survey Forecast, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Common Uncertainty, Consensus Forecasts, Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Global Uncertainty, Survey Forecast

Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Foreca...

Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth

Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth »

Source: Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth : The Role of Credit Constraints

Volume/Issue: 2016/174

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sangyup Choi , Davide Furceri , Yi Huang , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2016

ISBN: 9781475526370

Keywords: productivity growth; financial dependence; uncertainty

We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty-measured by stock market volatility-reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. This effect is larger during recessions,...

Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies

Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies »

Source: Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies

Volume/Issue: 2018/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philip Barrett

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

ISBN: 9781484350980

Keywords: Fiscal policy, Government Debt, Uncertainty

Do persistently low nominal interest rates mean that governments can safely borrow more? To addresses this question, I extend the model of Ghosh et al. [2013] to allow for persistent stochastic changes in nominal i...

The Political Economy of Northern Regional Development
			: Vol. I

The Political Economy of Northern Regional Development : Vol. I »

Series: Nordic Council of Ministers

Author(s): Hans Aage , Iulie Aslaksen , Andrée Caron , Gérard Duhaime , Solveig Glomsröd , Jón Haukur Ingimundarson , Anne Ingeborg Myhr , Ivar Jonsson , Jack Kruse , Svein Mathiesen , Joan Nymand Larsen , Rasmus Ole Rasmussen , Birger Poppel , Erik Reinert , Hugo Reinert , Chris Southcott , Gorm Winther , and Lyudmila Zalkind

Publisher: Nordic Council of Ministers

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

ISBN: 9789289320160

Keywords: Nordic, Norden, Baltic, Baltics, Arctic Regional Economies, Comparative Socio-economic Performance, Self-sufficiency Constraints, Homo Economicus, Environmental Uncertainties, Ethical Values

….Taking the structure and functioning of the Arctic regional economies and the degree of economic dependence as a point of departure, these region's self-reliance and comparative socio-economic performance is anal...

Optimal Fiscal Adjustment under Uncertainty

Optimal Fiscal Adjustment under Uncertainty »

Source: Optimal Fiscal Adjustment under Uncertainty

Volume/Issue: 2016/69

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rossen Rozenov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 March 2016

ISBN: 9781475521795

Keywords: Fiscal consolidation, decisions theory, uncertainty, minimax

The paper offers a non-probabilistic framework for representation of uncertainty in the context of a simple linear-quadratic model of fiscal adjustment. Instead of treating model disturbances as random variables wi...

Uncertainty, Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation

Uncertainty, Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation »

Source: Uncertainty, Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation

Volume/Issue: 2017/211

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi , and Emilio Fernández Corugedo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 September 2017

ISBN: 9781484320723

Keywords: Business cycles, Uncertainty shocks, Credit frictions, uncertainty, General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the d...

The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty

The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty »

Source: The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty : Disconnects and Dilutions in the South African Real Effective Exchange Rate-Export Relationship

Volume/Issue: 2016/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sandile Hlatshwayo , and Magnus Saxegaard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 June 2016

ISBN: 9781484383490

Keywords: Competitiveness, Exports, Policy Uncertainty, Real Effective Exchange Rate

In recent years, the link between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and exports in South Africa has weakened. While exports still rise in response to REER depreciations, the REER-export elasticity is below hi...

Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them

Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them »

Source: Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them

Volume/Issue: 2013/11

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Jonathan Ostry , and Atish Ghosh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 December 2013

ISBN: 9781484334188

Keywords: Welfare, International cooperation, Economic policy, Policy Coordination, Uncertainty, Guideposts

In bilateral and multilateral surveillance, countries are often urged to consider alternative policies that would result in superior outcomes for the country itself and, perhaps serendipitously, for the world econo...

Bank Capital and Uncertainty

Bank Capital and Uncertainty »

Source: Bank Capital and Uncertainty

Volume/Issue: 2010/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabian Valencia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

ISBN: 9781455205394

Keywords: Banking Capital, Risk, Uncertainty, bank capital, equation, statistics, independent variables,

An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital. This paper invest...

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy »

Source: The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy

Volume/Issue: 2013/66

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stephanie Denis , and Prakash Kannan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781475552690

Keywords: Uncertainty, industrial production, unemployment, recession, unemployment rate, General, GBR,

This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, d...