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The Wage-Price Spiral

The Wage-Price Spiral »

Source: The Wage-Price Spiral : Industrial Country Evidence and Implications

Volume/Issue: 2003/164

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2003

ISBN: 9781451858013

Keywords: Wage-Price Spiral, Asymmetric Fluctuations, Output Effect, Standard of Living, wage, aggregate demand, inflation, wage-price, Output-Effect,

Using quarterly time-series data for a sample of twelve industrial countries, the paper investigates the dynamics of nominal wage and price adjustments in the face of aggregate demand shocks. The evidence illustrat...

The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations »

Source: The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations : Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries

Volume/Issue: 2000/184

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2000

ISBN: 9781451859355

Keywords: Exchange rate, rational expectations, asymmetric fluctuations, inflation, price inflation, real output

The paper examines the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and price in developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unantic...

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence »

Source: Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Leigh , Andrea Pescatori , and Jaime Guajardo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

ISBN: 9781455294695

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal adjustments, fiscal consolidations, budget deficit, Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General, And Finance,

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fi...

Growth Forecast Errors and  Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers »

Source: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Volume/Issue: 2013/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475576443

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth forecast, fiscal balance, General, General, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated...

Ghostbusting

Ghostbusting »

Source: Ghostbusting : Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Volume/Issue: 2004/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

ISBN: 9781451856675

Keywords: Output gap, inflation forecasting, forecasting, statistics, statistic, inflationary pressures, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic...

Measuring a Roller Coaster

Measuring a Roller Coaster »

Source: Measuring a Roller Coaster : Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap

Volume/Issue: 2004/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2004

ISBN: 9781451847802

Keywords: output gap, inflation forecasting, unemployment, unemployment rate, forecasting, statistics, rate of unemployment, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods...

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? »

Source: How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

Volume/Issue: 2003/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Marco Terrones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451844542

Keywords: Macroeconomic fluctuations, trade and financial integration, output and consumption comovement, correlations, financial integration, capital flows, correlation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited su...

GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico

GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico »

Source: GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico

Volume/Issue: 2005/93

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ebrima Faal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2005

ISBN: 9781451861129

Keywords: GDP growth, output gap, tfp, equation, real gdp, growth rates, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in th...

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore »

Source: Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore

Volume/Issue: 2011/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Siang Tan , Joey Chew , and Sam Ouliaris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455266425

Keywords: exchange rate, business cycle, consumer price index, output gap, monetary policy, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit, international Finance

This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through in Singapore using band-pass spectral regression techniques, allowing for asymmetric effects over the business cycle. First stage pass-through is estimated to be c...

Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt

Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt »

Source: Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt : Spillovers, Inflation Dynamics, and Implications for Monetary Policy

Volume/Issue: 2011/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Elif Arbatli , and Kenji Moriyama

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455261376

Keywords: Small open economy model, transmission mechanism, exchange rate, interest rate, real interest, real interest rate, output gap, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

This paper estimates a small open economy model for Egypt to analyze inflation, output dynamics and monetary policy during 2005-2010. The interest rate channel is found to be relatively weak in Egypt, complicating...