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Inflation in Tajikistan

Inflation in Tajikistan »

Source: Inflation in Tajikistan : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges

Volume/Issue: 2010/17

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Svetlana Vtyurina , and Fahad Alturki

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

ISBN: 9781451962178

Keywords: cointegration, error correction model, autoregressive moving average model, monetary fund,

This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing diffe...

The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited

The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited »

Source: The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2008/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helge Berger , Thomas Harjes , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

ISBN: 9781451870299

Keywords: ECB, monetary analysis, monetary pillar, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, generalized dynamic factor model, inflation

Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exc...

The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate

The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate »

Source: The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate : Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium and Forecasting

Volume/Issue: 1992/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ronald MacDonald , and Mark Taylor

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 1992

ISBN: 9781451978803

Keywords: exchange rate, monetary model, monetary approach, monetary fund, dollar exchange rate

We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value mo...

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa »

Source: A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

Volume/Issue: 2008/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Harjes , and Luca Ricci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869101

Keywords: monetary model, Bayesian estimation, monetary policy, real interest rate, monetary transmission,

This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within...

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output »

Source: A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

Volume/Issue: 2015/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 April 2015

ISBN: 9781475565133

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, output, economy, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and o...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States

Volume/Issue: 2015/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Olivier Bizimana , Silvia Domit , Emilio Fernández Corugedo , Douglas Laxton , Kadir Tanyeri , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513556222

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, inflation, unemployment, gdp, productivity, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The programs and potential output estimates in this paper can be downloaded from www.douglaslaxton.org.Th...

Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)1

Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)1 »

Source: Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

Volume/Issue: 2009/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Douglas Laxton , Alasdair Scott , and David Rose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

ISBN: 9781451872125

Keywords: economic projections, macroeconomic models, central bank, monetary authority, aggregate demand,

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data...

The Monetary Model Strikes Back

The Monetary Model Strikes Back »

Source: The Monetary Model Strikes Back : Evidence from the World

Volume/Issue: 2008/73

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

ISBN: 9781451869354

Keywords: Monetary models, Out-of-sample forecasts, Panel Data, random walk, inflation, monetary model, cointegration, statistics, Out- of - sample forecasts,

We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates an...

Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod

Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod »

Source: Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod

Volume/Issue: 2003/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Douglas Laxton , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

ISBN: 9781451845044

Keywords: Macroeconomic models, simulation properties, inflation, monetary policy, aggregate demand, nominal interest rate, monetary authority, Model Evaluation and Selection, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Public Economics: General,

This paper was prepared as part of a euro area macroeconomic model comparisons project. Four standard macroeconomic experiments are considered to illustrate the differences in dynamic adjustment properties of two v...

The Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus in the Asian Crisis Countries

The Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus in the Asian Crisis Countries »

Source: The Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus in the Asian Crisis Countries

Volume/Issue: 2000/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Atish Ghosh , and Gabriela Basurto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2000

ISBN: 9781451843736

Keywords: Asia currency crisis, exchange rate, monetary model, monetary policy, money demand

Sharp exchange rate depreciations in the East Asian crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand) raised doubts about the efficacy of increasing interest rates to defend the currency. Using a standard monetary...