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A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana

A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana »

Source: A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana

Volume/Issue: 2010/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Clinton , Jihad Dagher , Ondrej Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Ali Alichi , and Marshall Mills

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

ISBN: 9781451962444

Keywords: inflation, central bank, low inflation, Model Construction and Estimation

A model in which monetary policy pursues full-fledged inflation targeting adapts well to Ghana. Model features include: endogenous policy credibility; non-linearities in the inflation process; and a policy loss fun...

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls »

Source: Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Volume/Issue: 2018/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mokhtar Benlamine , Ales Bulir , Meryem Farouki , Ágnes Horváth , Faical Hossaini , Hasnae El Idrissi , Zineb Iraoui , Mihály Kovács , Douglas Laxton , Anass Maaroufi , Katalin Szilágyi , Mohamed Taamouti , and David Vávra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2018

ISBN: 9781484341810

Keywords: Middle East, Monetary policy, Morocco, forecasting and simulation, model construction, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Model Construction and Estimation

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-f...

System Priors for Econometric Time Series1

System Priors for Econometric Time Series1 »

Source: System Priors for Econometric Time Series

Volume/Issue: 2016/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , and Miroslav Plašil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475555820

Keywords: Time series, system priors, Bayesian analysis, Methodological Issues: General, Time-Series Models, Model Construction and Estimation

The paper introduces 'system priors', their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool t...

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output »

Source: A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

Volume/Issue: 2015/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 April 2015

ISBN: 9781475565133

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, output, economy, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and o...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States

Volume/Issue: 2015/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Olivier Bizimana , Silvia Domit , Emilio Fernández Corugedo , Douglas Laxton , Kadir Tanyeri , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513556222

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, inflation, unemployment, gdp, productivity, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The programs and potential output estimates in this paper can be downloaded from www.douglaslaxton.org.Th...

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model1

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model1 »

Source: A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2008/279

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jared Laxton , Igor Ermolaev , Charles Freedman , Ondrej Kamenik , Michel Juillard , Douglas Laxton , Ioan Carabenciov , and Dmitry Korshunov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2008

ISBN: 9781451871371

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, correlations, equations, Model Construction and Estimation,

This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studyi...

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Michal Andrle , Haris Munandar , Charles Freedman , and Danny Hermawan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2009

ISBN: 9781451941715

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, rate of inflation, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation,

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which ec...

Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test

Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test »

Source: Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test

Volume/Issue: 2006/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roland Straub , and Gert Peersman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2006

ISBN: 9781451863956

Keywords: DSGE models, sign restrictions, government spending, real wages, private consumption, aggregate demand, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Model Construction and Estimation,

In recent years, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK DSGE) models have become increasingly popular in the academic literature and in policy analysis. However, the success of these models in rep...

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Source: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States »

Source: A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

Volume/Issue: 2015/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513507569

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Output Gap, output, inflation, unemployment rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The gap between potential and actual output-the output gap-is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S...