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Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries

Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries »

Source: Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries

Volume/Issue: 2014/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dmitry Plotnikov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 May 2014

ISBN: 9781484371749

Keywords: hysteresis, sunspots, unemployment rate, recession, jobless, General,

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium rational expectations model with search and multiple equilibria where aggregate shocks have a permanent effect on the unemployment rate. If agents' wealth dec...

How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP

How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP »

Source: How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP

Volume/Issue: 2015/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Fletcher , and Damiano Sandri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2015

ISBN: 9781498393577

Keywords: hysteresis, fiscal multipliers, gdp, multipliers, debt, interest, interest rate,

We develop a simple model to examine the conditions under which delaying fiscal consolidation can affect the present value of GDP via the fiscal stance's effects on the output gap and hysteresis. We find that the a...

Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?*

Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?* »

Source: Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?

Volume/Issue: 2018/169

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriel Di Bella , Francesco Grigoli , and Francisco Ramirez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484367490

Keywords: Unemployment, Advanced economies, hysteresis, panel VAR, persistence, unit root

Despite conventional macroeconomic theory is based on the idea that demand shocks can only have temporary effects on unemployment, several European economies display highly persistent unemployment dynamics. The the...

Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean

Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean »

Source: Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean

Volume/Issue: 2011/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , Nicolas de Roux Uribe , and Marc Hofstetter

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923341

Keywords: Hysteresis, unemployment rates, unemployment rate, employment, unemployed, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General,

JEL Cl This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is...

Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications »

Source: Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Volume/Issue: 2015/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Eugenio Cerutti , and Lawrence Summers

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 November 2015

ISBN: 9781513536613

Keywords: Recessions, Hysteresis, Phillips Curve, Monetary Policy, inflation, recession, gap, unemployment, gdp, General

We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased les...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Volume/Issue: 2019/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Hayk Avetisyan , Douglas Laxton , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Lusine Torosyan , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 February 2019

ISBN: 9781484398067

Keywords: Business cycles, Unemployment, Potential output, Capacity utilization, Production growth, Macroeconomic Modeling;output gap;NAIRU;hysteresis;potential growth;Volcker

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep r...

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts »

Source: Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2019/114

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Bluedorn , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2019

ISBN: 9781498315692

Keywords: Human capital, Labor force, Labor force participation, Labor markets, Demand, Hysteresis, business cycles, monetary policy., forecaster, WEO

We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when emp...

Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries

Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries »

Volume/Issue: 2014/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dmitry Plotnikov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371749.006

ISBN: 9781484371749

Keywords: hysteresis, sunspots, unemployment rate, recession, jobless, General,

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium rational expectations model with search and multiple equilibria where aggregate shocks have a permanent effect on the unemployment rate. If agents' wealth dec...

How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP

How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP »

Volume/Issue: 2015/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Fletcher , and Damiano Sandri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498393577.001

ISBN: 9781498393577

Keywords: hysteresis, fiscal multipliers, gdp, multipliers, debt, interest, interest rate,

We develop a simple model to examine the conditions under which delaying fiscal consolidation can affect the present value of GDP via the fiscal stance's effects on the output gap and hysteresis. We find that the a...

Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?

Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/169

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriel Di Bella , Francesco Grigoli , and Francisco Ramirez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484367490.001

ISBN: 9781484367490

Keywords: Unemployment, Advanced economies, hysteresis, panel VAR, persistence, unit root

Despite conventional macroeconomic theory is based on the idea that demand shocks can only have temporary effects on unemployment, several European economies display highly persistent unemployment dynamics. The the...