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Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies »

Source: Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Volume/Issue: 2016/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Jaime Guajardo , Vladimir Klyuev , Rui Mano , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 August 2016

ISBN: 9781475524260

Keywords: China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, spillovers, Global VAR, Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), ASEAN-5.

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on...

Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses*

Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses* »

Source: Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses

Volume/Issue: 2017/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Woon Choi , Taesu Kang , Geun-Young Kim , and Byongju Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

ISBN: 9781484325216

Keywords: Global liquidity, Inflation targeting, Panel Factor-Augmented VAR, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

This paper distills and identifies global liquidity (GL) momenta from the macro-financial data of advanced economies through a factor model with sign restrictions as policy-driven, market-driven, and risk aversenes...

Variance Decomposition Networks

Variance Decomposition Networks »

Source: Variance Decomposition Networks : Potential Pitfalls and a Simple Solution

Volume/Issue: 2017/107

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2017

ISBN: 9781475598407

Keywords: Systemic risk, Interconnectedness, networks, regularization techniques, global financial system, variance decomposition, VAR, Time-Series Models, Other

Diebold and Yilmaz (2015) recently introduced variance decomposition networks as tools for quantifying and ranking the systemic risk of individual firms. The nature of these networks and their implied rankings depe...

Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe

Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe »

Source: Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe : A Global VAR Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2009/23

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Silvia Sgherri , and Alessandro Galesi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2009

ISBN: 9781451871708

Keywords: Global VAR, Macro-Financial Linkages, International Financial Spillovers, equity prices, statistics, error variance, cointegration, bootstrap,

The recent financial crisis raises important issues about the transmission of financial shocks across borders. In this paper, a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model is constructed to assess the relevance of in...

On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Volume/Issue: 2015/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anh Nguyen , Jemma Dridi , Filiz Unsal , and Oral Williams

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 August 2015

ISBN: 9781513583013

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), supply, supply shocks, demand, Time-Series Models, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), General, Sub-Saharan Africa.,

The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA's rapid growth, its integrati...

China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?1

China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?1 »

Source: China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility : Is World Growth Losing Out?

Volume/Issue: 2016/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513590455

Keywords: China&;amp;#x2019;s slowdown, global financial market volatility, international business cycle, Global VAR, volatility, market volatility, financial market, trade, global financial market, Time-Series Models

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks,...

Cross-Country Linkages in Europe

Cross-Country Linkages in Europe »

Source: Cross-Country Linkages in Europe : A Global VAR Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2013/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yan Sun , Frigyes Heinz , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2013

ISBN: 9781484345474

Keywords: Spillover, Global VAR, regional model, macro-financial linkages, emerging Europe, gdp growth, real gdp, inflation, growth rate, long-term interest rates

This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles*

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles* »

Source: The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage

Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage »

Source: Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage : Are there Growth Spillovers?

Volume/Issue: 2011/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Issouf Samaké , and Yongzheng Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463924669

Keywords: low-income countries, BRICs, Global VAR, Structural VAR, exporters, commodity prices, oil exporters, commodity exporters, oil prices, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the la...