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Kingdom of the Netherlands

Kingdom of the Netherlands »

Source: Kingdom of the Netherlands : Netherlands: Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2008/172

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 June 2008

ISBN: 9781451829594

Keywords: demand shock, forecast error, error variance, confidence intervals, transport equipment

Overall competitiveness of the Dutch economy seems adequate, but domestically produced exports have lost market share recently. Over the past three decades, globalization has greatly influenced economies as countri...

Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands: Selected Issues

Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands: Selected Issues »

Source: Kingdom of the Netherlands : Netherlands: Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2008/172

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 June 2008

ISBN: 9781451829594

Keywords: demand shock, forecast error, error variance, confidence intervals, transport equipment

Overall competitiveness of the Dutch economy seems adequate, but domestically produced exports have lost market share recently. Over the past three decades, globalization has greatly influenced economies as countri...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

The Perils of Tax Smoothing

The Perils of Tax Smoothing »

Source: The Perils of Tax Smoothing : Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output

Volume/Issue: 2005/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner , and Kevin Carey

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

ISBN: 9781451862263

Keywords: Tax smoothing, sustainability, and forecast error, tax rates, statistics, standard deviation, statistic, forecast error,

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simul...

How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook »

Source: How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

Volume/Issue: 1996/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Artis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 1996

ISBN: 9781451851250

Keywords: statistic, significance level, forecasting, absolute error, output growth

This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial c...

Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations for the IEO Evaluation of IMF Forecasts - Process, Quality, and Country Perspective

Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations for the IEO Evaluation of IMF Forecasts - Process, Quality, and Country Perspective »

Source: Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations for the IEO Evaluation of IMF Forecasts - Process, Quality, and Country Perspective

Volume/Issue: 2015/052

Series: Policy Papers

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 September 2015

ISBN: 9781498344203

Keywords: Current account balances, Data processing, Human capital, Fiscal policy, Forecasting models, WEO, IEO, forecast error, forecast, medium-term

This paper sets out Management's response to the Independent Evaluation Office's (IEO) evaluation of IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives. The implementation plan proposes specific actions to a...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts »

Source: Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries

Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries »

Source: Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries

Volume/Issue: 2014/110

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vincent Belinga , Dora Benedek , Ruud A. Mooij , and John Norregaard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 June 2014

ISBN: 9781498305075

Keywords: Tax buoyancy, Error Correction Model, total tax revenue, tax revenues, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

By how much will faster economic growth boost government revenue? This paper estimates short- and long-run tax buoyancy in OECD countries between 1965 and 2012. We find that, for aggregate tax revenues, short-run t...

Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis

Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis »

Source: Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis : The Interest Rate Defense in the 1990s

Volume/Issue: 2001/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Rose , and Robert Flood

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

ISBN: 9781451874655

Keywords: empirical, exchange rate, fixed, floating, developing, developed, exchange rate changes, exchange rates, standard errors, forecasting,

This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries through the crisis-strewn 1990s. We find that UIP works better on average in the 1990s than in previou...

Strengthening Post-Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise — A New Dataset

Strengthening Post-Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise — A New Dataset »

Source: Strengthening Post-Crisis Fiscal Credibility : Fiscal Councils on the Rise - A New Dataset

Volume/Issue: 2014/58

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Xavier Debrun , and Tidiane Kinda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 April 2014

ISBN: 9781475516135

Keywords: Credibility of fiscal policy, fiscal councils, forecast errors, fiscal council, fiscal institutions,

Institutions aimed at constraining policy discretion to promote sound fiscal policies are once again at the forefront of the policy debate. Interest in 'fiscal councils,' independent watchdogs active in the public...