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Forces Driving Inflation in the New EU10 Members

Forces Driving Inflation in the New EU10 Members »

Source: Forces Driving Inflation in the New EU10 Members

Volume/Issue: 2009/51

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

ISBN: 9781451871999

Keywords: generalized dynamic factor model, price convergence, price level, relative price, inflation process, inflation dynamics,

The paper analyzes the forces driving inflation in the new EU10 member countries. A significant part of headline inflation in these countries is due to common factors, such as price level convergence and EU integra...

Inflation Differentials in the EU

Inflation Differentials in the EU »

Source: Inflation Differentials in the EU : A Common (Factors) Approach with Implications for EU8 Euro Adoption Prospects

Volume/Issue: 2008/21

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2008

ISBN: 9781451868838

Keywords: generalized dynamic factors model, euro adoption, central bank, price level, monetary policy, relative price,

This paper explores inflation determinants within the EU and implications for new members' euro adoption plans. Factor analysis partitions observed inflation in EU25 countries into common-origin and country-specifi...

Recent French Export Performance

Recent French Export Performance »

Source: Recent French Export Performance : Is There a Competitiveness Problem?

Volume/Issue: 2009/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alain Kabundi , and Francisco Nadal De Simone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2009

ISBN: 9781451871494

Keywords: Competitiveness, Dynamic Factor Models, fixed capital formation, capital formation, transport equipment, business cycles,

Recently, the export performance of France relative to its own past and relative to a major trading partner, Germany, deteriorated. That deterioration seems related to the geographical destination and product compo...

The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited

The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited »

Source: The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2008/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helge Berger , Thomas Harjes , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

ISBN: 9781451870299

Keywords: ECB, monetary analysis, monetary pillar, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, generalized dynamic factor model, inflation

Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exc...

Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster

Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster »

Source: Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster : Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies

Volume/Issue: 2015/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andres Fernandez , Andres Gonzalez , and Diego Rodriguez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513587677

Keywords: Emerging economies, common factors, Bayesian estimation, dynamic stochastic equilibrium models, commodity, prices, price, commodity price, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Business Cycles

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then...

Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy »

Source: Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

Volume/Issue: 2010/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcella Lucchetta , and Gianni De Nicolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451962567

Keywords: Dynamic Factor Model, Quantile Regressions, bank credit, forecasting, banking, bank lending, Econometric Modeling, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, financial Institutions And Services,

This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural...

Systemic Real and Financial Risks

Systemic Real and Financial Risks »

Source: Systemic Real and Financial Risks : Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing

Volume/Issue: 2012/58

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcella Lucchetta , and Gianni De Nicolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937768

Keywords: Systemic Risks, Dynamic Factor Model, Quantile Auto-regressions, Density Forecasts, forecasting, bank credit, banking, probability, Econometric Modeling, Business Fluctuations

This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial...

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation »

Source: The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2008/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

ISBN: 9781451870244

Keywords: Information content of money, inflation forecasting, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, general dynamic factor model, Bayesian estimation, aggregate demand

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among...

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows »

Source: The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows : Evidence from Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/265

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sonali Jain-Chandra , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 November 2012

ISBN: 9781475525823

Keywords: Monetary policy transmission, dynamic factor model, structural VAR, long-term interest rates, bond yields, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The...

France in the Global Economy

France in the Global Economy »

Source: France in the Global Economy : A Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2007/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone , and Alain Kabundi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

ISBN: 9781451866933

Keywords: Dynamic factor models, international business cycles, sign restrictions, fixed capital formation, capital formation, balance of payments, terms of trade, fixed investment,

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findi...