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Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area1

Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area1 »

Source: Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area

Volume/Issue: 2018/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Ebeke , and Jesse Siminitz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

ISBN: 9781484388808

Keywords: Investment, Euro Area, trade tensions, uncertainty, trade openness, General, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sens...

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks »

Source: Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Volume/Issue: 2016/228

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sylwia Nowak , and Pratiti Chatterjee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475555523

Keywords: Forecasting, common factors, uncertainty, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These comm...

Imf Conditionality and Program Ownership

Imf Conditionality and Program Ownership »

Source: Imf Conditionality and Program Ownership : A Case for Streamlined Conditionality

Volume/Issue: 2003/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2003

ISBN: 9781451852165

Keywords: program conditionality and ownership, uncertainty, ambiguity, probability, conditionality, probabilities, adjustment programs, Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty,

Program conditionality and ownership are important considerations in the IMF's current rethinking of program design. This paper contributes to the literature by developing a theory of program conditionality and own...

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty »

Source: Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty : An Invariant Set Approach

Volume/Issue: 2017/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rossen Rozenov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2017

ISBN: 9781475586251

Keywords: ublic debt sustainability, uncertainty, fiscal reaction function, set invariance, linear matrix inequalities, public debt sustainability, Computational Techniques, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty...

Political Risk Aversion

Political Risk Aversion »

Source: Political Risk Aversion

Volume/Issue: 2009/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Valderrama

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

ISBN: 9781451873412

Keywords: Individual uncertainty, Innovation, Dynamic voting, Institutional reform., new technology, technology choice, institutional reform, investors, expropriation, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty,

This paper studies the effect of individual uncertainty on collective decision-making to implement innovation. We show how individual uncertainty creates a bias for the status quo even under irreversible voting dec...

Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength

Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength »

Source: Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength

Volume/Issue: 2004/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

ISBN: 9781451853896

Keywords: risk, Knightian uncertainty, vertical and horizontal integration, institutions, probability, probabilities, investors, investment decisions, expected value, Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General

Institutional transparency makes future contingencies more easily predictable for investors. Greater transparency can be achieved through vertical and horizontal integration of policy rules, which may result in low...

Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment

Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment »

Source: Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment : A Case for Gradualism

Volume/Issue: 2002/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2002

ISBN: 9781451846980

Keywords: reform, sequencing, gradualism, big bang, uncertainty, ambiguity, flexibility, reform outcomes, reform package, expected value

Ambiguity, as opposed to uncertainty, reflects lack of sufficient information about distribution and payoffs of infrequent events. Reforms are infrequent events, undertaken in ambiguous second-best environments whe...

Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown1

Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown1 »

Source: Disentangling India's Investment Slowdown

Volume/Issue: 2014/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 March 2014

ISBN: 9781475531183

Keywords: Investments, Policy Uncertainty, inflation, real interest rate, real interest rates, monetary policy, monetary fund, General, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes. The sharp investment deceleration has sparked an intense debate about the role of interest rates, as well as busin...

Capital Regulation and Tail Risk

Capital Regulation and Tail Risk »

Source: Capital Regulation and Tail Risk

Volume/Issue: 2011/188

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrico Camillo Perotti , Lev Ratnovski , and Razvan Vlahu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781462308262

Keywords: Tail Risk, Financial Innovation, banker, recapitalization, banking, capital ratio, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation,

The paper studies risk mitigation associated with capital regulation, in a context where banks may choose tail risk asserts. We show that this undermines the traditional result that high capital reduces excess risk...

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity

Volume/Issue: 2003/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Theodore Barnhill , and George Kopits

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

ISBN: 9781451850222

Keywords: Value-at-Risk analysis, vulnerability to crises, emerging markets, fiscal sustainability, probability, fiscal risk, fiscal vulnerability, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrativ...