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A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework

A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework »

Source: A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework : Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty

Volume/Issue: 2008/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dale Gray , Elena Loukoianova , Samuel Malone , and Cheng Lim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869026

Keywords: Contingent Claims, currency debt, foreign currency, foreign currency debt, risk premium,

This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based mode...

Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions

Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions »

Source: Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions : An Application to Speculative Attacks

Volume/Issue: 1998/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Robert Flood , and Nancy Marion

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 1998

ISBN: 9781451854695

Keywords: Currency crisis, devaluation, risk premium, exchange rate, fixed exchange rate, bond, international reserves, shadow exchange rate

The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profita...

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention »

Source: The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention : Concepts and Measurement

Volume/Issue: 2016/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gustavo Adler , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 April 2016

ISBN: 9781484323076

Keywords: central bank balance sheet, international reserves, foreign exchange intervention, currency risk premium

The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual i...

A Fiscal Theory of the Currency Risk Premium and of Sterilized Intervention

A Fiscal Theory of the Currency Risk Premium and of Sterilized Intervention »

Source: A Fiscal Theory of the Currency Risk Premium and of Sterilized Intervention

Volume/Issue: 2002/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Kumhof , and Stijn van Nieuwerburgh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2002

ISBN: 9781451844818

Keywords: Bond markets, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy, Sterilized intervention, fiscal non-neutrality, currency risk premium, portfolio balance theory, exchange rate, currency risk, bonds

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium monetary portfolio choice model that accomplishes two objectives. First, it provides a theory of currency risk premia based on a weak and plausible form...

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary »

Source: Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary : Results from a Large Bayesian VAR

Volume/Issue: 2011/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adina Popescu , and Alina Carare

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923983

Keywords: Risk premium shocks, Transmission mechanism, Large Bayesian VAR, inflation, central bank, financial stability, foreign currency, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation, Bayesian Analysis

We document the transmission of monetary policy and risk-premium shocks in Hungary, by applying recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100...

A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework
			: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty

A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework : Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty »

Volume/Issue: 2008/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dale Gray , Elena Loukoianova , Samuel Malone , and Cheng Lim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869026.001

ISBN: 9781451869026

Keywords: Contingent Claims, currency debt, foreign currency, foreign currency debt, risk premium,

This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based mode...

Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions
			: An Application to Speculative Attacks

Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions : An Application to Speculative Attacks »

Volume/Issue: 1998/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Robert Flood , and Nancy Marion

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451854695.001

ISBN: 9781451854695

Keywords: Currency crisis, devaluation, risk premium, exchange rate, fixed exchange rate, bond, international reserves, shadow exchange rate

The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profita...

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention
			: Concepts and Measurement

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention : Concepts and Measurement »

Volume/Issue: 2016/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gustavo Adler , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 April 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484323076.001

ISBN: 9781484323076

Keywords: central bank balance sheet, international reserves, foreign exchange intervention, currency risk premium

The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual i...

A Fiscal Theory of the Currency Risk Premium and of Sterilized Intervention

A Fiscal Theory of the Currency Risk Premium and of Sterilized Intervention »

Volume/Issue: 2002/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Kumhof , and Stijn van Nieuwerburgh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451844818.001

ISBN: 9781451844818

Keywords: Bond markets, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy, Sterilized intervention, fiscal non-neutrality, currency risk premium, portfolio balance theory, exchange rate, currency risk, bonds

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium monetary portfolio choice model that accomplishes two objectives. First, it provides a theory of currency risk premia based on a weak and plausible form...

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary
			: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary : Results from a Large Bayesian VAR »

Volume/Issue: 2011/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adina Popescu , and Alina Carare

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463923983.001

ISBN: 9781463923983

Keywords: Risk premium shocks, Transmission mechanism, Large Bayesian VAR, inflation, central bank, financial stability, foreign currency, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation, Bayesian Analysis

We document the transmission of monetary policy and risk-premium shocks in Hungary, by applying recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100...