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Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616354121.084

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility...

Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals

Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals »

Source: Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals

Volume/Issue: 2009/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gernot Müller , Giancarlo Corsetti , and Andre Meier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2009

ISBN: 9781451872538

Keywords: real exchange rate, government spending, government spending shocks, private consumption,

The impact of fiscal stimulus depends not only on short-term tax and spending policies, but also on expectations about offsetting measures in the future. This paper analyzes the effects of an increase in government...

Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990'+L927s

Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990'+L927s »

Source: Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990'+L927s : A Vector Autoregression Approach

Volume/Issue: 1995/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Catão , and Ramana Ramaswamy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 1995

ISBN: 9781451845914

Keywords: recession, consumption shocks, real interest rate, financial liberalization, household wealth

This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the causes of the 1990-92 recession in the UK. The VAR approach is shown to be particularly pertinent for quantifying the relative magnitude of the...

Demand-Side Stabilization Policies

Demand-Side Stabilization Policies »

Source: Demand-Side Stabilization Policies : What is the Evidence of their Potential?

Volume/Issue: 2000/197

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2000

ISBN: 9781451860009

Keywords: asymmetric fluctuations, government spending, aggregate demand, government spending shocks, private consumption, nondurable goods

Using disaggregated data for the United States, this paper explores the effects of the variability of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. Higher variability of government spending shocks around a steady-state growth...

Japan's Stagnant Nineties

Japan's Stagnant Nineties »

Source: Japan's Stagnant Nineties : A Vector Autoregression Retrospective

Volume/Issue: 1999/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christel Rendu , and Ramana Ramaswamy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 1999

ISBN: 9781451846454

Keywords: vector autoregression, shocks, bubble, private consumption, fiscal policies, fiscal stimulus, household wealth

This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the driving forces of the growth slowdown in Japan during the 1990s. Negative shocks to both residential and nonresidential investment are shown to...

Appendix 1: Data Sources and Definitions: Event Study Analysis

Appendix 1: Data Sources and Definitions: Event Study Analysis »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

The event study analysis is based on a panel of 71 LICs (Table A1.1). The sample period spans from 1980 to 2007 for the analysis of past shock episodes and from 2007 to 2010 for the...

Appendix 2: Robustness Analysis

Appendix 2: Robustness Analysis »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

This appendix provides a robustness check for the event study analysis using alternative definitions of shocks and related losses. In particular, shocks were redefined in terms of a...

Appendix 3: Data and Robustness Analysis of Optimal Reserves

Appendix 3: Data and Robustness Analysis of Optimal Reserves »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

This appendix discusses data sources for the regressions reported in Chapter 5, as well as the calibration exercise in Chapter 6, and reports robustness checks for the regression re...

1. Introduction

1. Introduction »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Low-income countries (LICs) are routinely faced with a wide range of exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade and export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—and the resul...

2. External Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance

2. External Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Macroeconomic volatility in LICs reflects a high frequency of exogenous shocks. Real external shocks and natural disasters are more frequent in LICs compared with advanced and emerging market countries. An a...