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Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks »

Source: Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Volume/Issue: 2016/228

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sylwia Nowak , and Pratiti Chatterjee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475555523

Keywords: Forecasting, common factors, uncertainty, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These comm...

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth1

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth1 »

Source: This Time They Are Different : Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

Volume/Issue: 2013/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Eberhardt , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2013

ISBN: 9781484309285

Keywords: growth, common factor model, asymmetric ARDL, debt stock, debt terms, debt threshold, debt term, Models with Panel Data, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relat...

Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster

Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster »

Source: Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster : Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies

Volume/Issue: 2015/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andres Fernandez , Andres Gonzalez , and Diego Rodriguez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513587677

Keywords: Emerging economies, common factors, Bayesian estimation, dynamic stochastic equilibrium models, commodity, prices, price, commodity price, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Business Cycles

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then...

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks »

Volume/Issue: 2016/228

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sylwia Nowak , and Pratiti Chatterjee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475555523.001

ISBN: 9781475555523

Keywords: Forecasting, common factors, uncertainty, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These comm...

This Time They Are Different
			: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

This Time They Are Different : Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2013/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Eberhardt , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484309285.001

ISBN: 9781484309285

Keywords: growth, common factor model, asymmetric ARDL, debt stock, debt terms, debt threshold, debt term, Models with Panel Data, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relat...

Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster
			: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies

Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster : Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andres Fernandez , Andres Gonzalez , and Diego Rodriguez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513587677.001

ISBN: 9781513587677

Keywords: Emerging economies, common factors, Bayesian estimation, dynamic stochastic equilibrium models, commodity, prices, price, commodity price, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Business Cycles

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then...