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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries »

Source: Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries : A Vulnerability Index

Volume/Issue: 2012/264

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , and Yasemin Bal-Gunduz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 November 2012

ISBN: 9781475528510

Keywords: Vulnerability index, growth crises, low-income countries, real gdp, gdp growth, gdp per capita, trading partners, exchange rate regime, Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Economic Growth of Open Economies

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling app...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857207.001

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries
			: A Vulnerability Index

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries : A Vulnerability Index »

Volume/Issue: 2012/264

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , and Yasemin Bal-Gunduz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475528510.001

ISBN: 9781475528510

Keywords: Vulnerability index, growth crises, low-income countries, real gdp, gdp growth, gdp per capita, trading partners, exchange rate regime, Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Economic Growth of Open Economies

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling app...