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A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) »

Source: A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

Volume/Issue: 2015/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Karim Barhoumi , and Laurent Ferrara

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 January 2015

ISBN: 9781498307543

Keywords: factor models., trade, growth rate, variables, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor's benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI...

Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption

Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption »

Source: Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption

Volume/Issue: 2000/128

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio Spilimbergo , and Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2000

ISBN: 9781451855043

Keywords: trade forecasting and simulation, reer, equation, equations, statistics, cointegration

The real effective exchange rate is an aggregation of several bilateral real exchange rates with respect to other countries. The aggregation is usually done under the assumption of constant elasticity of substituti...

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa »

Source: Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa : Past Performance and the Way Forward

Volume/Issue: 2005/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yongzheng Yang , and Sanjeev Gupta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2005

ISBN: 9781451860559

Keywords: Regional Trade Arrangements, regional integration, regional trade, trade liberalization, intraregional trade, Simulation Methods, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries...

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM »

Source: The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM

Volume/Issue: 2015/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Patrick Blagrave , Pedro Espaillat , Keiko Honjo , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , René Lalonde , Douglas Laxton , Eleonara Mavroeidi , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2015

ISBN: 9781475518665

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, macroeconomic interdependence, consumption, investment, demand, trade, potential output, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structur...

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa : Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

Volume/Issue: 2015/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Paulo Drummond , Pedro Espaillat , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513557885

Keywords: macroeconomic interdepedence, trade, investment, exports, economy, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China's growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and...

Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices

Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices »

Source: Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices

Volume/Issue: 2015/165

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Javier Gómez?Pineda , Dominique Guillaume , and Kadir Tanyeri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 July 2015

ISBN: 9781513552545

Keywords: Financial linkages, Global imbalances Commodity prices, output, country risk, trade, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Forecasting and Simulation,

The paper presents a global model with systemic and country risks, as well as commodity prices.We show that systemic risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output g...

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging »

Source: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging

Volume/Issue: 2006/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hamid Faruqee , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2006

ISBN: 9781451863550

Keywords: simulation, general equilibrium model, dependency ratio, labor income, labor force, retirement, birth, Social Security and Public Pensions, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of population aging in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The model is calibrated to data for the Czech Republic, where population aging...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Increasing Productivity Growth in Middle Income Countries

Increasing Productivity Growth in Middle Income Countries »

Source: Increasing Productivity Growth in Middle Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2015/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Aidar Abdychev , La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul , Andrew Jonelis , Lamin Leigh , Ashwin Moheeput , Friska Parulian , Ara Stepanyan , and Albert Touna Mama

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 January 2015

ISBN: 9781484328439

Keywords: Growth, potential growth&;amp;#x2026;, environment, debt, productivity growth, economics, trade, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation, One

Many small middle-income countries (SMICs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have experienced a moderation in growth in recent years. Although factor accumulation, most notably capital deepening, was crucial to the succe...

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area »

Source: Structural Reforms in the Euro Area : Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries

Volume/Issue: 2006/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Everaert , and Werner Schule

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451863970

Keywords: markups, labor market, real interest rate, nominal interest rate, inflation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Using the IMF's Global Economic Model, calibrated to the European Union, the effects of reform in product and labor markets are quantified for both a large and a small euro area economy. When markups in these marke...