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A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) »

Source: A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

Volume/Issue: 2015/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Karim Barhoumi , and Laurent Ferrara

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 January 2015

ISBN: 9781498307543

Keywords: factor models., trade, growth rate, variables, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor's benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI...

Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption

Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption »

Source: Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption

Volume/Issue: 2000/128

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio Spilimbergo , and Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2000

ISBN: 9781451855043

Keywords: trade forecasting and simulation, reer, equation, equations, statistics, cointegration

The real effective exchange rate is an aggregation of several bilateral real exchange rates with respect to other countries. The aggregation is usually done under the assumption of constant elasticity of substituti...

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties »

Source: Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties : Are Any Fit to Survive?

Volume/Issue: 2004/73

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yin-Wong Cheung , Antonio Garcia Pascual , and Menzie Chinn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2004

ISBN: 9781451849493

Keywords: monetary model, forecasting performance, exchange rate, forecasting, random walk, statistic, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery1

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery1 »

Source: The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

Volume/Issue: 2017/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Aqib Aslam , Emine Boz , Eugenio Cerutti , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

ISBN: 9781484328279

Keywords: Globalization, Trade policy, International trade, Investment, General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposi...

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa »

Source: Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa : Past Performance and the Way Forward

Volume/Issue: 2005/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yongzheng Yang , and Sanjeev Gupta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2005

ISBN: 9781451860559

Keywords: Regional Trade Arrangements, regional integration, regional trade, trade liberalization, intraregional trade, Simulation Methods, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries...

Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains

Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains »

Source: Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains

Volume/Issue: 2018/229

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Maximiliano Appendino , Jelle Barkema , and Diego Cerdeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2018

ISBN: 9781484337134

Keywords: Economic integration, Global value chains, International competitiveness, Trade openness, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts

All common real effective exchange rate indexes assume trade is only in final goods, despite the growing presence of global supply chains. Extending effective exchange rate indexes to include such intermediate good...

Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections »

Source: Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Volume/Issue: 2018/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

ISBN: 9781484386187

Keywords: forecast evaluation, bias-variance trade-off, machine learning, Forecasting, GDP growth, Model Evaluation and Testing, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimati...

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM »

Source: The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM

Volume/Issue: 2015/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Patrick Blagrave , Pedro Espaillat , Keiko Honjo , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , René Lalonde , Douglas Laxton , Eleonara Mavroeidi , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2015

ISBN: 9781475518665

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, macroeconomic interdependence, consumption, investment, demand, trade, potential output, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structur...

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa : Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

Volume/Issue: 2015/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Paulo Drummond , Pedro Espaillat , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513557885

Keywords: macroeconomic interdepedence, trade, investment, exports, economy, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China's growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and...