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The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk »

Source: The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

Volume/Issue: 2018/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tobias Adrian , Federico Grinberg , Nellie Liang , and Sheheryar Malik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

ISBN: 9781484372364

Keywords: Financial stability, downside risk, macrofinancial linkages, volatility paradox, quantile regression, General, International Business Cycles

Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as growt...

The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on the Chilean Banking System

The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on the Chilean Banking System »

Source: The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on the Chilean Banking System

Volume/Issue: 2010/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

ISBN: 9781455200672

Keywords: Corisk, quantile regression, financial crisis, contagion, Chile, banking, banking system, financial institutions, financial system, bank claims

This paper explores how the global turmoil affected the risk of banks operating in Chile, and provides evidence that could help strengthen work on vulnerability indicators and off-site supervision. The analysis is...

Shifting Motives

Shifting Motives »

Source: Shifting Motives : Explaining the Buildup in official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980's

Volume/Issue: 2012/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Atish Ghosh , Jonathan Ostry , and Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463933197

Keywords: Quantile Regression, exchange rate, reserve holdings, short-term debt, exchange rate regime, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

Why have emerging market economies (EMEs) been stockpiling international reserves? We find that motives have varied over time?vulnerability to current account shocks was relatively important in the 1980s but, as EM...

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World »

Source: Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

Volume/Issue: 2013/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Alun Thomas , Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu , and Yingyuan Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 July 2013

ISBN: 9781484359662

Keywords: Structural Transformation, Quantile Regression, Panel Data, globalization, gdp per capita, real gdp, economic globalization, economic growth, General,

This paper documents stylized facts on the process of structural transformation around the world and empirically analyzes its determinants using data on real value added by sector of economic activity (agriculture,...

Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy »

Source: Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

Volume/Issue: 2010/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcella Lucchetta , and Gianni De Nicolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451962567

Keywords: Dynamic Factor Model, Quantile Regressions, bank credit, forecasting, banking, bank lending, Econometric Modeling, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, financial Institutions And Services,

This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural...

Systemic Real and Financial Risks

Systemic Real and Financial Risks »

Source: Systemic Real and Financial Risks : Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing

Volume/Issue: 2012/58

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcella Lucchetta , and Gianni De Nicolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937768

Keywords: Systemic Risks, Dynamic Factor Model, Quantile Auto-regressions, Density Forecasts, forecasting, bank credit, banking, probability, Econometric Modeling, Business Fluctuations

This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial...

Taxation and Corporate Debt: Are Banks any Different?

Taxation and Corporate Debt: Are Banks any Different? »

Source: Taxation and Corporate Debt : Are Banks any Different?

Volume/Issue: 2013/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jost Heckemeyer , and Ruud A. Mooij

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 October 2013

ISBN: 9781484330340

Keywords: Corporate tax, debt bias, leverage, non-financial firms, quantile regressions, bank size, capital structure, banking, tax sensitivity, tax elasticity

This paper explores whether corporate tax bias toward debt finance differs between banks and nonbanks, using a large panel of micro data. On average, it finds that there is no significant difference. The marginal t...

How much should I hold?  Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands »

Source: How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

Volume/Issue: 2012/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nkunde Mwase

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

ISBN: 9781475505559

Keywords: Logit and quantile regression, Islands, EMP, Deleveraging, reserve holdings, short-term debt, current account, balance of payments, exchange rate regimes, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. I...

The Distributive Effects of Land Titleon Labor Supply

The Distributive Effects of Land Titleon Labor Supply »

Source: The Distributive Effects of Land Titleon Labor Supply : Evidence From Brazil

Volume/Issue: 2011/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mauricio Moura , Caio Piza , and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455259366

Keywords: land-titling, quantile regression, propensity score, land title, property rights, child labor, labor market, urban poor, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General, Time Allocation and Labor Supply

This paper studies the effects of property-titling on labor supply. The role of legal ownership security is isolated by comparing the effect that being part of, or excluded from, a land title program in a unique qu...

The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk »

Volume/Issue: 2018/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tobias Adrian , Federico Grinberg , Nellie Liang , and Sheheryar Malik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372364.001

ISBN: 9781484372364

Keywords: Financial stability, downside risk, macrofinancial linkages, volatility paradox, quantile regression, General, International Business Cycles

Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as growt...