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An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning1

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning1 »

Source: An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

Volume/Issue: 2018/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jin-Kyu Jung , Manasa Patnam , and Anna Ter-Martirosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2018

ISBN: 9781484380635

Keywords: Machine learning, forecasts, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Neural Networks and Related Topics

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output var...

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach1

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach1 »

Source: Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

Volume/Issue: 2018/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yevgeniya Korniyenko , Manasa Patnam , Rita Maria del Rio-Chanon , and Mason Porter

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2018

ISBN: 9781484353240

Keywords: Spillovers, Financial contagion, International financial markets, network analysis, Neural Networks and Related Topics, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Globalization: Finance

This paper studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility to shocks. A novel multilayer network framework is applied to link debt and equity exposures across countries. Use of...

Addressing Interconnectedness

Addressing Interconnectedness »

Source: Addressing Interconnectedness : Concepts and Prudential Tools

Volume/Issue: 2013/199

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Arregui , Mohamed Norat , Antonio Pancorbo , Jodi Scarlata , Eija Holttinen , Fabiana Melo , Jay Surti , Christopher Wilson , Rodolfo Wehrhahn , and Mamoru Yanase

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2013

ISBN: 9781475531855

Keywords: network analysis, prudential tools, policymakers, systemic risk, banking, banking system, banking sector, bank reporting, interbank market, General

This paper reviews tools used to identify and measure interconnectedness and raises the awareness of policymakers as to potential cross-sectional implications of prudential tools aimed at controlling interconnected...

Procyclical Fiscal Policy

Procyclical Fiscal Policy »

Source: Procyclical Fiscal Policy : Shocks, Rules, and Institutions: A View From Mars

Volume/Issue: 2006/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2006

ISBN: 9781451862874

Keywords: procyclicality, institutions, linear model, fiscal rule, parameter estimate, National Deficit Surplus, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation,

This paper assesses the roles of shocks, rules, and institutions as possible sources of procyclicality in fiscal policy. By employing parametric and nonparametric techniques, I reach the following four main conclus...

China's Imports Slowdown

China's Imports Slowdown »

Source: China's Imports Slowdown : Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks

Volume/Issue: 2016/51

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513555850

Keywords: shocks, spillover, spillin, spillback, network, gdp, revenue, demand, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round ne...

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning »

Volume/Issue: 2018/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jin-Kyu Jung , Manasa Patnam , and Anna Ter-Martirosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380635.001

ISBN: 9781484380635

Keywords: Machine learning, forecasts, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Neural Networks and Related Topics

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output var...

Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers »

Source: Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2015/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 July 2015

ISBN: 9781513542928

Keywords: shocks, spillover, network, balance of payments, imports, import, trading partners, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effect...

Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness

Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness »

Source: Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness : An Empirical Approach

Volume/Issue: 2011/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Massara , and Luca Errico

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463902964

Keywords: systemic, DOTS, network analysis, cross-border spillovers, contagion, trade sector, global trade, financial sector, trading partners, Neural Networks and Related Topics

The paper focuses on systemically important jurisdictions in the global trade network, complementing recent IMF work on systemically important financial sectors. Using the IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS)...

Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises

Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises »

Source: Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2002/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Swart Ghosh , and Atish Ghosh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842609

Keywords: structural indicators, binary recursive trees, shareholders, current account, shareholder, shareholder rights, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, Corporate Finance and Governance: General, Neural Networks and Related Topics,

This paper examines the role of structural factors—governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure—as well as macroecono...

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2018/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yevgeniya Korniyenko , Manasa Patnam , Rita Maria del Rio-Chanon , and Mason Porter

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353240.001

ISBN: 9781484353240

Keywords: Spillovers, Financial contagion, International financial markets, network analysis, Neural Networks and Related Topics, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Globalization: Finance

This paper studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility to shocks. A novel multilayer network framework is applied to link debt and equity exposures across countries. Use of...