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Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)1

Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)1 »

Source: Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

Volume/Issue: 2009/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Douglas Laxton , Alasdair Scott , and David Rose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

ISBN: 9781451872125

Keywords: economic projections, macroeconomic models, central bank, monetary authority, aggregate demand,

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data...

Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy

Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy »

Source: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy : Estimates of Tax and Spending Multipliers in Paraguay

Volume/Issue: 2017/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 March 2017

ISBN: 9781475588262

Keywords: Paraguay, Fiscal policy, Western Hemisphere, Fiscal Multipliers, Local Projection Method, General, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

This paper presents estimates of fiscal multipliers in Paraguay following different econometric techniques and identification approaches. The results point to multipliers for capital expenditure that are substantia...

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies »

Source: A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Volume/Issue: 2015/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zoltan Jakab , Pavel Lukyantsau , and Shengzu Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2015

ISBN: 9781498399609

Keywords: Global projection model, inflation, interest rate, economies, demand, exchange rate, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The...

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance »

Source: Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

Volume/Issue: 2017/220

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Henry Mooney , and Constance de Soyres

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

ISBN: 9781484324790

Keywords: Balance of payments, Debt relief, IMF, Sovereign debt, World Bank, debt sustainability analysis (DSA), macroeconomic forecast, projection accuracy, projection bias, forecast error

This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism f...

Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings

Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings »

Source: Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings : Does a Market-Friendly Approach Improve the Outcome?

Volume/Issue: 2016/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamon Asonuma , Marcos Chamon , and Akira Sasahara

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475553857

Keywords: Trade, Sovereign debt, Econometric models, External debt, Sovereign debt restructuring, Sovereign Debt; Sovereign Defaults; Sovereign Debt Restructurings; Trade; Panel Regression; Local Projections;, Sovereign Defaults, Sovereign Debt Restructurings, Panel Regression, Local Projections

Sovereign debt restructurings have been shown to influence the dynamics of imports and exports. This paper shows that the impact can vary substantially depending on whether the restructuring takes place preemptivel...

How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?

How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries? »

Source: How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?

Volume/Issue: 2005/66

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Mühleisen , Kornelia Krajnyak , Stephan Danninger , David Hauner , and Bennett Sutton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2005

ISBN: 9781451860856

Keywords: Budget Forecasting, Macroeconomic Projections, tax revenue, government expenditure, fiscal forecasts, fiscal forecasting, budget process, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Structure, Scope

This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, qu...

Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) »

Volume/Issue: 2009/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Douglas Laxton , Alasdair Scott , and David Rose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872125.001

ISBN: 9781451872125

Keywords: economic projections, macroeconomic models, central bank, monetary authority, aggregate demand,

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data...

Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy
			: Estimates of Tax and Spending Multipliers in Paraguay

Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy : Estimates of Tax and Spending Multipliers in Paraguay »

Volume/Issue: 2017/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 March 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475588262.001

ISBN: 9781475588262

Keywords: Paraguay, Fiscal policy, Western Hemisphere, Fiscal Multipliers, Local Projection Method, General, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

This paper presents estimates of fiscal multipliers in Paraguay following different econometric techniques and identification approaches. The results point to multipliers for capital expenditure that are substantia...

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zoltan Jakab , Pavel Lukyantsau , and Shengzu Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498399609.001

ISBN: 9781498399609

Keywords: Global projection model, inflation, interest rate, economies, demand, exchange rate, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The...

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance »

Volume/Issue: 2017/220

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Henry Mooney , and Constance de Soyres

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324790.001

ISBN: 9781484324790

Keywords: Balance of payments, Debt relief, IMF, Sovereign debt, World Bank, debt sustainability analysis (DSA), macroeconomic forecast, projection accuracy, projection bias, forecast error

This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism f...