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Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties »

Source: Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties : Are Any Fit to Survive?

Volume/Issue: 2004/73

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yin-Wong Cheung , Antonio Garcia Pascual , and Menzie Chinn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2004

ISBN: 9781451849493

Keywords: monetary model, forecasting performance, exchange rate, forecasting, random walk, statistic, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties
			: Are Any Fit to Survive?

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties : Are Any Fit to Survive? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/73

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yin-Wong Cheung , Antonio Garcia Pascual , and Menzie Chinn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451849493.001

ISBN: 9781451849493

Keywords: monetary model, forecasting performance, exchange rate, forecasting, random walk, statistic, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies
			: A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment »

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860320.001

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Why Has the Euro Been so Weak?

Why Has the Euro Been so Weak? »

Source: Why Has the Euro Been so Weak?

Volume/Issue: 2001/155

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Guy Meredith

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

ISBN: 9781451857313

Keywords: euro weakness, exchange rate, real interest rates, inflation, exchange rate movements, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

The weakness of the euro has been surprising given the widely-held expectation that it would be a strong currency. This paper critically examines explanations for the slide in the euro, finding that many are questi...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging »

Source: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging

Volume/Issue: 2006/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hamid Faruqee , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2006

ISBN: 9781451863550

Keywords: simulation, general equilibrium model, dependency ratio, labor income, labor force, retirement, birth, Social Security and Public Pensions, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of population aging in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The model is calibrated to data for the Czech Republic, where population aging...

The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited

The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited »

Source: The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2002/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Guy Meredith , and Yue Ma

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2002

ISBN: 9781451844672

Keywords: forward premium puzzle, uncovered interest parity, exchange rate, equation, correlation, exchange rate changes, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that genera...

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area »

Source: Structural Reforms in the Euro Area : Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries

Volume/Issue: 2006/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Everaert , and Werner Schule

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451863970

Keywords: markups, labor market, real interest rate, nominal interest rate, inflation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Using the IMF's Global Economic Model, calibrated to the European Union, the effects of reform in product and labor markets are quantified for both a large and a small euro area economy. When markups in these marke...

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa »

Source: Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa : Past Performance and the Way Forward

Volume/Issue: 2005/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yongzheng Yang , and Sanjeev Gupta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2005

ISBN: 9781451860559

Keywords: Regional Trade Arrangements, regional integration, regional trade, trade liberalization, intraregional trade, Simulation Methods, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries...