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Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows1

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows1 »

Source: Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows

Volume/Issue: 2012/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , and Yanliang Miao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937737

Keywords: Coincident Indicators, Capital Tracker, net capital flows, net capital, capital inflows, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicato...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging »

Source: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging

Volume/Issue: 2006/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hamid Faruqee , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2006

ISBN: 9781451863550

Keywords: simulation, general equilibrium model, dependency ratio, labor income, labor force, retirement, birth, Social Security and Public Pensions, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of population aging in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The model is calibrated to data for the Czech Republic, where population aging...

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area »

Source: Structural Reforms in the Euro Area : Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries

Volume/Issue: 2006/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Everaert , and Werner Schule

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451863970

Keywords: markups, labor market, real interest rate, nominal interest rate, inflation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Using the IMF's Global Economic Model, calibrated to the European Union, the effects of reform in product and labor markets are quantified for both a large and a small euro area economy. When markups in these marke...

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa »

Source: Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa : Past Performance and the Way Forward

Volume/Issue: 2005/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yongzheng Yang , and Sanjeev Gupta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2005

ISBN: 9781451860559

Keywords: Regional Trade Arrangements, regional integration, regional trade, trade liberalization, intraregional trade, Simulation Methods, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries...

In Which Exchange Rate Models Do Forecasters Trust?

In Which Exchange Rate Models Do Forecasters Trust? »

Source: In Which Exchange Rate Models Do Forecasters Trust?

Volume/Issue: 2011/116

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaewoo Lee , H. Takizawa , and David Hauner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455262397

Keywords: Exchange rate models, exchange rate, exchange rates, current account, interest rate, exchange rate regime, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

Using survey data of market expectations, we ask which popular exchange rate models appear to be consistent with expectation formation of market forecasters. Exchange rate expectations are found to be correlated wi...

Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis

Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis »

Source: Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis : The Case of Zambia

Volume/Issue: 2012/94

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Andrew Berg , Rafael Portillo , Mai Dao , and Alfredo Baldini

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

ISBN: 9781475502848

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis, Low-Income Countries, inflation, terms of trade, aggregate demand, money growth, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three related shocks: a wor...

Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean

Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean »

Source: Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean

Volume/Issue: 2011/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alejandro Guerson , and Giovanni Melina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781463902148

Keywords: Procyclical spending, public debt sustainability, public debt, primary expenditure, debt accumulation, debt sustainability, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation, National Budget, Deficit

This paper proposes a fiscal policy framework we call Public Debt Targeting. The framework seeks to smooth primary spending over the business cycle while remaining consistent with public debt sustainability. Under...

International Reserve Adequacy in Central America

International Reserve Adequacy in Central America »

Source: International Reserve Adequacy in Central America

Volume/Issue: 2011/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kristin Magnussen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455268443

Keywords: Foreign reserves, balance of payments crises, financial dollarization, international reserves, external debt, exchange rate, emerging markets, current account, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Countries' absolute and relative international reserves adequacy has recently attracted considerable attention. The analysis has however concentrated on the largest and most advanced economies. We apply various met...

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress »

Source: International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

Volume/Issue: 2010/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Papa N'Diaye , Dale Gray , Natalia Tamirisa , Hiroko Oura , and Qianying Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

ISBN: 9781455200832

Keywords: bank, corporate, distress, GVAR, financial, international, probability, bank distress, probabilities, bank default

The paper evaluates how increases in banks' and nonfinancial corporates' default risk are transmitted in the global economy, using in a vector autoregression model for 30 advanced and emerging economies for the per...