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Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process »

Source: Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process : A Simple Framework and New Facts

Volume/Issue: 2012/296

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Coibion , and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

ISBN: 9781475519242

Keywords: Numbers, Information Rigidity, Survey Forecasts, inflation, rational expectations, monetary policy, inflation forecasts, monetary economics, Survey Forecasts., General,

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic signifi...

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Source: Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts »

Source: Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? »

Source: How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

Volume/Issue: 2018/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

ISBN: 9781484344873

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession ye...

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process
			: A Simple Framework and New Facts

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process : A Simple Framework and New Facts »

Volume/Issue: 2012/296

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Coibion , and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475519242.001

ISBN: 9781475519242

Keywords: Numbers, Information Rigidity, Survey Forecasts, inflation, rational expectations, monetary policy, inflation forecasts, monetary economics, Survey Forecasts., General,

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic signifi...

Information Rigidities
			: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts
			: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484344873.001

ISBN: 9781484344873

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession ye...