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Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?

Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data? »

Source: Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?

Volume/Issue: 2005/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Domenico Lombardi , and Stephen Bond

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2005

ISBN: 9781451861778

Keywords: Aggregation, Uncertainty, equation, capital stock, equations, correlation, linear trend, Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

This study investigates the relationship between uncertainty and investment using U.K. data at different levels of aggregation. Motivated by a comparative econometric analysis using a firm-level panel and aggregate...

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Source: Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?

Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data? »

Volume/Issue: 2005/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Domenico Lombardi , and Stephen Bond

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451861778.001

ISBN: 9781451861778

Keywords: Aggregation, Uncertainty, equation, capital stock, equations, correlation, linear trend, Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

This study investigates the relationship between uncertainty and investment using U.K. data at different levels of aggregation. Motivated by a comparative econometric analysis using a firm-level panel and aggregate...

Information Rigidities
			: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...