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Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area

Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area »

Source: Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area : Assessment and Role for Informing Monetary Policy

Volume/Issue: 2006/197

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2006

ISBN: 9781451864571

Keywords: Underlying inflation, forecast evaluation, composite indicators, forecast risk assessment, monetary aggregates, inflation dynamics, central bank, Model Construction and Estimation, Model Evaluation and Selection, Forecasting and Other Model Applications,

The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are...

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved? »

Source: Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Volume/Issue: 2004/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Zalduendo , and Catia Batista

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2004

ISBN: 9781451874488

Keywords: Model estimation, forecasting, growth, inflation, statistic, terms of trade, inflation rates, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Numerous reports have noted that the IMF's medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sam...

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle »

Source: The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

Volume/Issue: 2013/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2013

ISBN: 9781484334720

Keywords: Phillips Curve, price inflation, inflation dynamics, monetary fund, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation,

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation...

Philippines

Philippines »

Source: Philippines : Preparations for Inflation Targeting

Volume/Issue: 2001/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piyabha Kongsamut

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

ISBN: 9781451852271

Keywords: inflation targeting, inflation modeling, inflation, inflation target, central bank, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Targeting,

The Philippines is planning to shift toward adoption of an inflation targeting framework in 2001. This paper reviews key policy issues in this context, describes various operational and technical preparations, and...

The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting

The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting »

Source: The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting

Volume/Issue: 2006/175

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Kumah

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2006

ISBN: 9781451864359

Keywords: Inflation forecasting, seasonal unit roots, monetary policy stance, error-correction models, VAR, money growth, money supply, inflation forecasts, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy...

What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low

What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low »

Source: What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low : Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach

Volume/Issue: 2016/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yasser Abdih , Ravi Balakrishnan , and Baoping Shang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 July 2016

ISBN: 9781498347297

Keywords: Inflation modeling and forecasting, Phillips curve, core goods and services inflation.

Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model...

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India »

Source: Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India : An Outline of the Analytical Framework

Volume/Issue: 2017/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Kevin Clinton , Asish George , Joice John , Ondra Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Pratik Mitra , G.V. Nadhanael , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2017

ISBN: 9781475578690

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Disinflation, India, Inflation targeting, Forecasting models, Monetary policy, Price stabilization, Central banks and their policies, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India

India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper d...

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Source: Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...

Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs

Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs »

Source: Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs

Volume/Issue: 2001/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gerd Schwartz , Pau Rabanal , Mario Bléjer , and Alfredo Leone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2001

ISBN: 9781451845020

Keywords: Monetary Policy Rules, inflation, inflation target, central bank, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper argues that the IMF's traditional monetary conditionality-a ceiling on net domestic assets of the central bank and a floor on its net international reserves-should be adapted in IMF-supported adjustment...

A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis-Overview

A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis-Overview »

Source: A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis-Overview

Volume/Issue: 2006/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Douglas Laxton , Andrew Berg , and Philippe Karam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863406

Keywords: forecasting and simulation, model construction, and estimation, inflation, monetary fund, aggregate demand, central bank,

This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks....