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Still Minding the Gap-Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps

Still Minding the Gap-Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps »

Source: Still Minding the Gap-Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps

Volume/Issue: 2010/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andre Meier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

ISBN: 9781455202232

Keywords: Output gap, Phillips curve, Recession, inflation rates, inflation dynamics, low inflation, General Outlook and Conditions,

This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about signif...

Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress

Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress »

Source: Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress : A Proposed Set of Indicators

Volume/Issue: 2011/94

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): James McHugh , Iva Petrova , and Emanuele Baldacci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2011

ISBN: 9781455253333

Keywords: Fiscal vulnerability, fiscal stress, public debt, fiscal variables, National Deficit Surplus, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, General Outlook and Conditions,

This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these...

The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia

The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia »

Source: The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia : Is the Current Crisis Different?

Volume/Issue: 2010/68

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2010

ISBN: 9781451982121

Keywords: government spending, public debt, fiscal policy response, General Outlook and Conditions, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General,

The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This...

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress »

Source: Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress

Volume/Issue: 2016/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Bruns , and Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 February 2016

ISBN: 9781475594799

Keywords: fiscal distress, extreme bound analysis, debt, currency, inflation, emerging economies, default, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Simulation

Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries’ vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts...

How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?1

How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?1 »

Source: How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?

Volume/Issue: 2014/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Heiko Hesse , Ferhan Salman , and Christian Schmieder

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2014

ISBN: 9781498379083

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, Scenarios, Spillover, Contagion, bonds, national bank, banks ’; solvency, banking, bank solvency, General Outlook and Conditions

One of the challenges of financial stability analysis and bank stress testing is how to establish scenarios with meaningful macro-financial linkages, i.e., taking into account spillover effects and other forms of c...

On the Solvency of Nations

On the Solvency of Nations »

Source: On the Solvency of Nations : Are Global Imbalances Consistent with Intertemporal Budget Constraints?

Volume/Issue: 2010/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrique Mendoza , Marco Terrones , and Ceyhun Bora Durdu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963298

Keywords: external solvency, Poled Mean Group estimation, foreign assets, net foreign assets, equation, statistics, industrial countries, Open Economy Macroeconomics, General Outlook and Conditions,

Theory predicts that a nation's stochastic intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied if net exports (NX) and net foreign assets (NFA) satisfy an error-correction specification with a residual integrated of any f...

Mind the Gap-Is Economic Growth in India Leaving Some States Behind?

Mind the Gap-Is Economic Growth in India Leaving Some States Behind? »

Source: Mind the Gap-Is Economic Growth in India Leaving Some States Behind?

Volume/Issue: 2006/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catriona Purfield

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2006

ISBN: 9781451863635

Keywords: Conversions, State Level Growth, employment, per capita income, growth rates, growth rate, General Outlook and Conditions, Economic Development: Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses

This paper examines how growth has varied across India's states. It finds that (i) the income gap between rich and poor states has widened; (ii) rich and faster-growing states have been more effective in reducing p...

Policy Coordination in Fiscal Federalism

Policy Coordination in Fiscal Federalism »

Source: Policy Coordination in Fiscal Federalism : Drawing Lessons From the Dubai Debt Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2011/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455269457

Keywords: cyclically-adjusted budget balance, fiscal federalism, statement of fiscal risks, debt, deficit, budget, public sector, General Outlook and Conditions, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General

Using the cyclically adjusted non-hydrocarbon primary balance, this paper investigates the evolution of the fiscal policy stance in the United Arab Emirates at consolidated and sub-national levels in the run-up and...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Source: Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Assessing Fiscal Stress

Assessing Fiscal Stress »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Stress

Volume/Issue: 2011/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriela Dobrescu , Iva Petrova , Nazim Belhocine , and Emanuele Baldacci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455254316

Keywords: fiscal stress, fiscal vulnerability, public debt crises, sovereign default, public debt, fiscal indicators, fiscal crisis, fiscal variables, National Deficit Surplus, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal str...