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Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries

Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries »

Source: Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries

Volume/Issue: 2016/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nina Biljanovska , and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2016

ISBN: 9781484364345

Keywords: GVAR, Low-Income Countries, Transmission of Shocks

The paper examines the transmission of business cycle fluctuations and credit conditions from advanced and emerging market economies to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs), using a global vector autoregressive...

Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR »

Source: Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

Volume/Issue: 2013/218

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dale Gray

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2013

ISBN: 9781484322185

Keywords: contingent claims analysis (CCA), global vector autoregression (GVAR), banking, banking systems, banking system, sovereign risk, Model Construction and Estimation,

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 Europe...

On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Volume/Issue: 2015/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anh Nguyen , Jemma Dridi , Filiz Unsal , and Oral Williams

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 August 2015

ISBN: 9781513583013

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), supply, supply shocks, demand, Time-Series Models, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), General, Sub-Saharan Africa.,

The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA's rapid growth, its integrati...

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis »

Source: Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa - A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2014/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Mehdi Hosseinkouchack , and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2014

ISBN: 9781498305051

Keywords: GVAR, Financial Transmission, prices, output, commodity, equity, commodity prices, Models with Panel Data, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized impulse response...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress »

Source: International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

Volume/Issue: 2010/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Papa N'Diaye , Dale Gray , Natalia Tamirisa , Hiroko Oura , and Qianying Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

ISBN: 9781455200832

Keywords: bank, corporate, distress, GVAR, financial, international, probability, bank distress, probabilities, bank default

The paper evaluates how increases in banks' and nonfinancial corporates' default risk are transmitted in the global economy, using in a vector autoregression model for 30 advanced and emerging economies for the per...

After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean »

Source: After the Boom-Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Volume/Issue: 2014/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 August 2014

ISBN: 9781498363518

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), commodity prices, output growth, Latin America, commodity exporters, exporters, commodity exports, Time-Series Models, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Economic Growth of Open Economies

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011-and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decad...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles*

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles* »

Source: The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

Inflation Dynamics in Asia

Inflation Dynamics in Asia »

Source: Inflation Dynamics in Asia : Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

Volume/Issue: 2011/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio Buitron , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923969

Keywords: Monetary policy, Inflation, Global VAR (GVAR), inflation dynamics, money supply, monetary shocks, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asi...

Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries

Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2016/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nina Biljanovska , and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484364345.001

ISBN: 9781484364345

Keywords: GVAR, Low-Income Countries, Transmission of Shocks

The paper examines the transmission of business cycle fluctuations and credit conditions from advanced and emerging market economies to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs), using a global vector autoregressive...