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Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?

Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions? »

Source: Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?

Volume/Issue: 2013/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Bluedorn , Jörg Decressin , and Marco Terrones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2013

ISBN: 9781484353363

Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasting, Uncertainty, Binary dependent variable models, price, prices, market, spread, volatility, Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. I...

Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms

Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms »

Source: Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms : A Lost Cause?

Volume/Issue: 2015/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Law , and Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513597584

Keywords: default probabilities, equity, market, Asset Pricing, Financial Forecasting and Simulation,

Assessing default risks for Chinese firms is hard. Standard measures of risk using market indicators may be unreliable because of implicit guarantees, the large role played by less-informed investors, and other mar...

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis »

Source: Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa - A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2014/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Mehdi Hosseinkouchack , and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2014

ISBN: 9781498305051

Keywords: GVAR, Financial Transmission, prices, output, commodity, equity, commodity prices, Models with Panel Data, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized impulse response...

Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests

Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests »

Source: Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests : Progress So Far and the Way Forward

Volume/Issue: 2015/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dimitri Demekas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513513621

Keywords: contagion, solvency, bank, risk, capital, balance sheet, General, Financial Forecasting and Simulation, Government Policy and Regulation,

Giving stress tests a macroprudential perspective requires (i) incorporating general equilibrium dimensions, so that the outcome of the test depends not only on the size of the shock and the buffers of individual i...

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?1

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?1 »

Source: Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2013/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Camelia Minoiu , Chanhyun Kang , V.S. Subrahmanian , and Anamaria Berea

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2013

ISBN: 9781475554250

Keywords: financial networks, banking, banking systems, Global Outlook, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Forecasting and Simulation,

The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warnin...

News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency

News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency »

Source: News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency : A Simple Approach

Volume/Issue: 2014/167

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 September 2014

ISBN: 9781498324854

Keywords: Economic News, bond yields, bond, equity prices, term bond, financial market, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve's May...

Reversing the Financial Accelerator

Reversing the Financial Accelerator »

Source: Reversing the Financial Accelerator : Credit Conditions and Macro-Financial Linkages

Volume/Issue: 2011/26

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , and Reginald Darius

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

ISBN: 9781455216734

Keywords: Financial conditions index, credit conditions, survey, statistics, inflation, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

This paper examines the role of credit markets in the transmission of U.S. macro-financial shocks through the prism of a financial conditions index (FCI) based on a vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. It explo...

Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries

Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries »

Source: Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries : Balancing Financial Stability and Development

Volume/Issue: 2015/190

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniela Marchettini , and Rodolfo Maino

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 August 2015

ISBN: 9781513545882

Keywords: Early Warning Indicators, Financial Deepening, credit, bis, risk, banking, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Forecasting and Simulation,

We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be cond...

Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area

Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area »

Source: Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area

Volume/Issue: 2011/93

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2011

ISBN: 9781455253326

Keywords: Financial Conditions, Short-term Forecasting, Real-Time Data, forecasting, bond, bond spread, government bond, bond yield, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

Financial conditions indexes are developed for the United States and euro area using a wide range of financial indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for fore...

Measures of Fiscal Risk in  Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries

Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries »

Source: Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries

Volume/Issue: 2012/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Caceres , and Leandro Medina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475530162

Keywords: stochastic simulations, volatility, break-even prices, exporting countries, commodity prices, break-even prices., Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Financial Forecasting and Simulation, General, Government Policy,

The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, mediu...