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Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy

Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy »

Source: Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy : Asset Allocation Perspective

Volume/Issue: 2012/78

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502305

Keywords: yield curve modeling, macrofinance modeling, vector auto-regression model, bond, bond yield, government bond, bond yields, correlation, Econometric Modeling: General,

The paper developes a VAR macrofinance model of the Czech economy. It shows that yield misalignments from the yields implied by the macrofinance model partially determine subsequent yield changes over three to nine...

Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa : Empirical Norms and Key Determinants

Volume/Issue: 2012/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paulo Drummond , Wendell Daal , Nandini Srivastava , and Luiz Oliveira

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503296

Keywords: econometric panel estimation, tax revenue, fiscal revenue, tax policy, taxation, tax effort, Subsidies, and Revenue: General, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Econometric Modeling: Other,

Mobilizing more revenue is a priority for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Countries have to finance their development agendas, and weak revenue mobilization is the root cause of fiscal imbalances in several co...

Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model

Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model »

Source: Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model

Volume/Issue: 2011/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Huigang Chen , Alin Mirestean , and Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2011

ISBN: 9781463921309

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, model uncertainty, dynamic panels, Generalized Method of Moments, gravity model, probability, probabilities, econometrics, equation, sample size

This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Mod...

Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey1

Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey1 »

Source: Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey

Volume/Issue: 2006/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451864090

Keywords: Default probabilities, scoring models, ratings models, probabilities, probability, banking, forecasting, bankrupt, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Financial Economics: General

This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making i...

Growth Determinants Revisited

Growth Determinants Revisited »

Source: Growth Determinants Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2009/268

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides , and Alin Mirestean

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2009

ISBN: 9781451874136

Keywords: growth regressions, Bayesian Model Averaging, dynamic panel estimation, limited information estimation, probability, econometrics, probabilities, equation, growth model,

This paper revisits the cross-country growth empirics debate using a novel Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging framework to address model uncertainty in the context of a dynamic growth model in panel data...

Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods

Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods »

Source: Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods

Volume/Issue: 2009/74

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alin Mirestean , Charalambos Tsangarides , and Huigang Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

ISBN: 9781451872217

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, Model Uncertainty, Dynamic Panels, Generalized Method of Moments, Robustness, probability, probabilities, econometrics, sample size, equation,

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a coherent mechanism to address the problem of model uncertainty. In this paper we extend the BMA framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well a...

Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data

Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data »

Source: Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data

Volume/Issue: 2012/119

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. V. S. Dixit , and Maxwell Opoku-Afari

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503487

Keywords: Short-Term Dynamics, Economic Activity, GDP, paper, correlation, forecasting, time series, standard deviations, Econometric and Statistical Methods: Other, Computational Techniques

This paper uses a set of routinely collected high-frequency data in low-income countries (LICs) to construct an aggregate and a comprehensive index of economic activity which could serve (i) as a measure of the dir...

Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa

Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa »

Source: Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa

Volume/Issue: 2010/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Burcu Aydin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

ISBN: 9781455208814

Keywords: structural balance, credit growth, commodity and asset prices, tax revenue, tax base, tax policy, budget balance, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Econometric Modeling: General,

This paper applies a disaggregated method for the calculation of the cyclical component of the budget balance for South Africa with an emphasis on the effect of commodity and asset prices, and credit cycle. Results...

Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting

Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting »

Source: Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting

Volume/Issue: 2010/217

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Burcu Aydin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

ISBN: 9781455208821

Keywords: structural balance, panel data, tax revenue, financial crisis, global financial crisis, revenue collection, fiscal accounts, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Econometric Modeling: General,

This paper analyzes the cyclical fluctuations in South Africa in a cross-country context, and studies the impact of the output gap by controlling for export intensity, the debt burden, asset prices, and banking cri...

Flying to Paradise

Flying to Paradise »

Source: Flying to Paradise

Volume/Issue: 2016/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Lu Han , Marie Kim , and Nicole Laframboise

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2016

ISBN: 9781498375108

Keywords: airlift supply factors, tourist, tourist arrivals, airlines, tourists, Time-Series Models, Models with Panel Data,, Aviation, Caribbean, United States

This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlin...