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How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries »

Source: How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

Volume/Issue: 2011/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Bracke

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2011

ISBN: 9781463921316

Keywords: Housing Cycles, House Prices, Duration Dependence, dependence, equation, probability, statistics, descriptive statistics, Duration Analysis,

This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length dist...

The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks

The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks »

Source: The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks : Evidence from Existing Federations

Volume/Issue: 2016/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tigran Poghosyan , Abdelhak Senhadji , and Carlo Cottarelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 July 2016

ISBN: 9781498379601

Keywords: public debt cycles, credit cycles, asset price cycles, duration analysis

We assess the extent to which fiscal transfers smooth regional shocks in three large federations: the U.S., Canada, and Australia. We find that fiscal transfers offset 4-11 percent of idiosyncratic shocks (risk-sha...

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis »

Source: Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2001/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

ISBN: 9781451859614

Keywords: ACH, currency crisis, duration analysis, contagion, speculative attacks, asian crisis, currency crises, equation, Econometric Modeling,

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes...

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments »

Source: Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments : What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

Volume/Issue: 2004/157

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Sanjeev Gupta , Emanuele Baldacci , and Carlos Mulas-Granados

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

ISBN: 9781451857528

Keywords: fiscal consolidations, fiscal adjustments, fiscal sustainability, probability, statistics, Duration Analysis, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have...

Are More Competitive Banking Systems More Stable?

Are More Competitive Banking Systems More Stable? »

Source: Are More Competitive Banking Systems More Stable?

Volume/Issue: 2006/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Cihak , Simon Wolfe , and Klaus Schaeck

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451864038

Keywords: banking competition, market structure, regulation, duration analysis, banking, statistic, banking system, probability, Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation,

This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the cross-country relationship between a direct measure of competitive conduct of financial institutions and banking system fragility. Using the Panzar and Rosse...

How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?

How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? »

Source: How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?

Volume/Issue: 2015/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 November 2015

ISBN: 9781513511641

Keywords: public debt cycles, credit cycles, asset price cycles, duration analysis, debt, public debt, price, prices, equity, General

We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960-2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest...

Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields1

Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields1 »

Source: Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields

Volume/Issue: 2011/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emre Alper , and Lorenzo Forni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781463902209

Keywords: long-term real rates, domestic debt, debt ratio, real rates, inflation, Duration Analysis, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

Several models establish a positive association between public debt ratios and long-term real yields, but the empirical evidence is not always conclusive. We reconsider this issue, focusing in particular on possibl...

How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2011/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Bracke

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463921316.001

ISBN: 9781463921316

Keywords: Housing Cycles, House Prices, Duration Dependence, dependence, equation, probability, statistics, descriptive statistics, Duration Analysis,

This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length dist...

Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa

Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa

Volume/Issue: 2017/202

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Arizala , Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia , Charalambos Tsangarides , and Mustafa Yenice

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 September 2017

ISBN: 9781484314166

Keywords: Africa, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros

This paper examines the growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since 1960 through the lens of growth turning points (accelerations and decelerations) and periods of sustained growth (growth spells). Gr...

The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks
			: Evidence from Existing Federations

The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks : Evidence from Existing Federations »

Volume/Issue: 2016/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tigran Poghosyan , Abdelhak Senhadji , and Carlo Cottarelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 July 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498379601.001

ISBN: 9781498379601

Keywords: public debt cycles, credit cycles, asset price cycles, duration analysis

We assess the extent to which fiscal transfers smooth regional shocks in three large federations: the U.S., Canada, and Australia. We find that fiscal transfers offset 4-11 percent of idiosyncratic shocks (risk-sha...