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China’s Demography and its Implications

China’s Demography and its Implications »

Source: China's Demography and its Implications

Volume/Issue: 2013/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Il Houng Lee , Xu Qingjun , and Murtaza Syed

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 March 2013

ISBN: 9781484363362

Keywords: Demographics, demography, dependency ratio, working population, pension, Forecasting and Simulation, Demographic Trends and Forecasts, Public Policy, China, Peoples Republic of,

In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the perman...

Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle

Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle »

Source: Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle

Volume/Issue: 2018/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Callum Jones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 March 2018

ISBN: 9781484345405

Keywords: Great Recession, Demographics, Zero Lower Bound, Forward Guidance, General, Demographic Trends and Forecasts

As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and...

Storm Clouds Ahead? Migration and Labor Force Participation Rates in Europe

Storm Clouds Ahead? Migration and Labor Force Participation Rates in Europe »

Source: Storm Clouds Ahead? Migration and Labor Force Participation Rates in Europe

Volume/Issue: 2018/148

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hilgenstock , and Zsoka Koczan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 June 2018

ISBN: 9781484363058

Keywords: Aging, Migration, Labor force participation, Demographic Trends and Forecasts, Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

The paper examines the potential effects of international migration on labor force participation in advanced economies in Europe. It documents that migration played a significant role in alleviating aging pressures...

Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy

Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy »

Source: Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy

Volume/Issue: 2014/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jong-Won Yoon , Jinill Kim , and Jungjin Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 November 2014

ISBN: 9781498396783

Keywords: Demographic Changes, Population Aging, Macroeconomic Impact, Savings and Investment, population, life expectancy, population dynamics, Demographic Trends and Forecasts, Fiscal Policy.,

The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave conse...

The Future of Saving

The Future of Saving »

Source: The Future of Saving : The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World

Volume/Issue: 2019/1

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): David Amaglobeli , Hua Chai , Era Dabla-Norris , Kamil Dybczak , Mauricio Soto , and Alexander Tieman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2019

ISBN: 9781484388990

Keywords: Aging, Savings, Demographic transition, Old age pensions, Aging; Demographics; Saving; Pension Spending, Demographics, Saving, Pension Spending, Demographic Trends and Forecasts, General

This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables....

Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?

Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary? »

Source: Is Japan's Population Aging Deflationary?

Volume/Issue: 2014/139

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Dennis Botman , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 August 2014

ISBN: 9781498392129

Keywords: Population aging, Abenomics, real interest rate, aggregate demand, central bank, Forecasting and Simulation, Demographic Trends and Forecasts,

Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF's Global Integrated Fiscal and Mo...

Shock from Graying

Shock from Graying »

Source: Shock from Graying : Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Volume/Issue: 2013/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Imam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2013

ISBN: 9781475598070

Keywords: Demographic shift, life-cycle model, monetary policy, inflation, monetary transmission, central bank, inflation targeting, Demographic Trends and Forecasts,

Abstract Empirical evidence is mounting that, in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less...

Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries1

Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries1 »

Source: Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries

Volume/Issue: 2017/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Masahiro Nozaki

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 April 2017

ISBN: 9781475595826

Keywords: Pay-as-you-go pension, internal rate of return, pension reform, Social Security and Public Pensions, Demographic Trends and Forecasts, Social Security and Public Pensions, Demographic Trends and Forecasts

How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real...

Pension Reforms in Japan

Pension Reforms in Japan »

Source: Pension Reforms in Japan

Volume/Issue: 2012/285

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kenichiro Kashiwase , Masahiro Nozaki , and Kiichi Tokuoka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2012

ISBN: 9781475544312

Keywords: pension reform, pension, basic pension, pension benefit, pension benefits, life expectancy, Social Security and Public Pensions, Demographic Trends and Forecasts,

This paper analyzes various reform options for Japan's public pension in light of large fiscal consolidation needs of the country. The most attractive option is to increase the pension eligibility age in line with...

The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan

The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan »

Source: The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan

Volume/Issue: 2016/237

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Niklas Westelius , and Yihan Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 December 2016

ISBN: 9781475559712

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Population growth, Demographic transition, Inflation, Japan, Asia and Pacific, Aging, and Productivity, Productivity, Demographic Trends and Forecasts

Is Japan's aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the w...