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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

World Economic Outlook, May 1998
			: Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators

World Economic Outlook, May 1998 : Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 September 1998

Language: Arabic

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557757432.081

ISBN: 9781557757432

Keywords: debt, interest, exchange rates, current account, debtor countries, banking, payments, banking crises, external debt, net debtor

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an...

Excerpt
			: Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Excerpt : Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries »

Series: Miscellaneous Publication (Other)

Author(s): Min Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/CPVIEAEX.073

ISBN: CPVIEAEX

Keywords: Agricultural sector, Balance of trade, Central banking, Central banks, Civil society, Commodities, Commodity price shocks, Commodity prices, Consumption, Credit

In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food...

Currency Crises

Currency Crises »

Source: Currency Crises : In Search of Common Elements

Volume/Issue: 2000/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Jahangir Aziz , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848892

Keywords: Currency Crises, outliers, banking crises, standard deviations, standard deviation

The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers cri...

The Role of Institutional Quality in a Currency Crisis Model

The Role of Institutional Quality in a Currency Crisis Model »

Source: The Role of Institutional Quality in a Currency Crisis Model

Volume/Issue: 2008/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yi Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2008

ISBN: 9781451868678

Keywords: Institution quality, currency crisis, currency crises, public finance, asian crisis,

This paper is a theoretical study of the impact of institutional quality on currency crises from a public finance point of view. Recent empirical studies leave little doubt that weak institutions, including high le...

How Costly Are Debt Crises?

How Costly Are Debt Crises? »

Source: How Costly Are Debt Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2011/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2011

ISBN: 9781463926618

Keywords: output losses, debt crises, sovereign defaults, debt crisis, currency crises, crisis episodes, currency crisis

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and lon...

Currency and Banking Crises

Currency and Banking Crises »

Source: Currency and Banking Crises : The Early Warnings of Distress

Volume/Issue: 1999/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Graciela Kaminsky

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1999

ISBN: 9781451858938

Keywords: Early Warnings, Currency Crises, Banking Crises, banking, financial crises, banking crisis

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes...

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion »

Source: The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 2009/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Kannan , and Fritzi Köhler-Geib

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873665

Keywords: investors, contagion, crisis country, rate of return, currency crises

The 2007 subprime crisis in the U.S. triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new ch...

Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite

Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite »

Source: Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite : Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2001/134

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manmohan Kumar , and Avinash Persaud

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2001

ISBN: 9781451855609

Keywords: Risk aversion, contagion affects, financial crises, contagion, correlation, probability, currency crises, Financial Institutions and Services: General,

This paper discusses a "pure" form of financial contagion, unrelated to economic fundamentals - investors' shifting appetite for risk. It provides an analytical framework for identifying changes in investors' risk...

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis »

Source: Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2001/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

ISBN: 9781451859614

Keywords: ACH, currency crisis, duration analysis, contagion, speculative attacks, asian crisis, currency crises, equation, Econometric Modeling,

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes...