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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513534497.086

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

This issue focuses on the ongoing adjustment to cheaper oil and subdued economic activity for oil-producing countries, as well as the weak and fragile recovery in the Caucasus and Central Asia region. It also discu...

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies »

Source: Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Volume/Issue: 2016/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Jaime Guajardo , Vladimir Klyuev , Rui Mano , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 August 2016

ISBN: 9781475524260

Keywords: China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, spillovers, Global VAR, Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), ASEAN-5.

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on...

Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy

Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy »

Source: Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy

Volume/Issue: 2016/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Benjamin Hunt , and Wojciech Maliszewski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475552225

Keywords: Spillovers, Asia and Pacific, China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, model based analysis, China&;amp;#x2019;s slowdown and rebalancing, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Business Cycles

China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) o...

Statistical Appendix

Statistical Appendix »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

This publication features an abbreviated version of the Statistical Appendix. The full Statistical Appendix is available online at www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreost1016.xlsx...

1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Adjustment to Cheaper Oil Continuing

1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Adjustment to Cheaper Oil Continuing »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) oil exporters continue to face an exceptionally challenging environment as low oil prices and conflicts continue to weigh on economic...

2. MENAP Oil Importers: Striving to Foster Inclusive Growth in a Challenging Environment

2. MENAP Oil Importers: Striving to Foster Inclusive Growth in a Challenging Environment »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

Macroeconomic stabilization is advancing on the heels of recent energy subsidy reforms and low oil prices. Yet growth remains weak and fragile amid ongoing regional conflicts, lingering structur...

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Is the Worst Over?

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Is the Worst Over? »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

Fiscal accommodation and exchange rate adjustment have helped the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) mitigate the immediate impact from large and persistent external shocks, particularly the slump...

4. How Will China’s Rebalancing Affect the Middle East and Central Asia?

4. How Will China’s Rebalancing Affect the Middle East and Central Asia? »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

Weaker commodity prices, slower global growth, and higher global risk aversion are the channels through which the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) and the Caucasus an...

5. Financing Fiscal Deficits in Selected MENAP and CCA Oil Exporters

5. Financing Fiscal Deficits in Selected MENAP and CCA Oil Exporters »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

Despite efforts to consolidate, fiscal deficits will remain large in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) oil exporters, and Algeria over the medium term. Coun...

MENAP Region Highlights

MENAP Region Highlights »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

The slump in oil prices and ongoing conflicts continue to weigh on MENAP’s economic outlook. Uncertainties arising from conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen are weakening confidence and lower oil price...