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The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America »

Source: The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

Volume/Issue: 2007/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jeronimo Zettelmeyer , and Pär Österholm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

ISBN: 9781451867404

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, world growth, bond, bond spread,

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2...

External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia

External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia »

Source: External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia : Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model

Volume/Issue: 2008/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pär Österholm , and Lisandro Abrego

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869088

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, gdp growth, forecasting, mean square, real gdp,

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quar...

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak »

Source: Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak

Volume/Issue: 2017/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Pietro Dallari , and Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

ISBN: 9781484328262

Keywords: Fiscal Spillovers; Bayesian Methods; Fiscal Multipliers, Panel VAR, Fiscal Spillovers, Bayesian Methods, Fiscal Multipliers, Bayesian Analysis, Models with Panel Data

We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significan...

Financial Stability and Interest-Rate Policy

Financial Stability and Interest-Rate Policy »

Source: Financial Stability and Interest-Rate Policy : A Quantitative Assessment of Costs and Benefits

Volume/Issue: 2016/73

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrea Pescatori , and Stefan Laseen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 March 2016

ISBN: 9781475522679

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Endogenous Financial Risk, Bayesian VAR, Non-Linear Dynamics, Policy Evaluation.

Should monetary policy use its short-term policy rate to stabilize the growth in household credit and housing prices with the aim of promoting financial stability? We ask this question for the case of Canada. We fi...

The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada-What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?

The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada-What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us? »

Source: The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada-What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?

Volume/Issue: 2010/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rupa Duttagupta , and N. Barrera

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

ISBN: 9781451961751

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, Bayesian VAR estimation, lending standards, real gdp, gdp growth, standards, growth rate,

This paper builds a Bayesian VAR estimation model of growth for Canada, by focusing specifically on the role of external and domestic financial indicators, including credit conditions. A variance decomposition show...

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs1

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs1 »

Source: Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs

Volume/Issue: 2008/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pär Österholm , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

ISBN: 9781451869156

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Out-of-sample Forecasting, Granger Causality, money growth, monetary economics, central bank,

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up...

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy »

Source: How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy : Nowcasting an Emerging Market

Volume/Issue: 2015/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhat Solmaz , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513598987

Keywords: Nowcasting, Bayesian estimation, VAR, Emerging Market, economy, domestic economy, risk, economies, external factors, Bayesian Analysis

External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial sho...

Financial Frictions in Data

Financial Frictions in Data »

Source: Financial Frictions in Data : Evidence and Impact

Volume/Issue: 2014/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2014

ISBN: 9781484336557

Keywords: Financial Frictions, Bayesian VAR, External Financing Premium, Default risk, Financial shocks, Generalized IRF, DSGE, default, credit spread, maturity

This paper investigates financial frictions in US postwar data to understand the interaction between the real business cycle and the credit market. A Bayesian estimation technique is used to estimate a large Vector...

Bayesian Vars

Bayesian Vars »

Source: Bayesian Vars : A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System

Volume/Issue: 2003/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matteo Ciccarelli , and Alessandro Rebucci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2003

ISBN: 9781451852639

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Gibbs sampling, Time- Varying Reaction Function, EMS, forecasting, equation, monetary policy, outliers, covariance, Bayesian Analysis

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology origi...

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary »

Source: Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary : Results from a Large Bayesian VAR

Volume/Issue: 2011/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adina Popescu , and Alina Carare

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923983

Keywords: Risk premium shocks, Transmission mechanism, Large Bayesian VAR, inflation, central bank, financial stability, foreign currency, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation, Bayesian Analysis

We document the transmission of monetary policy and risk-premium shocks in Hungary, by applying recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100...