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The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America »

Source: The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

Volume/Issue: 2007/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jeronimo Zettelmeyer , and Pär Österholm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

ISBN: 9781451867404

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, world growth, bond, bond spread,

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2...

External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia

External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia »

Source: External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia : Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model

Volume/Issue: 2008/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pär Österholm , and Lisandro Abrego

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869088

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, gdp growth, forecasting, mean square, real gdp,

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quar...

The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada-What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?

The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada-What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us? »

Source: The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada-What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?

Volume/Issue: 2010/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rupa Duttagupta , and N. Barrera

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

ISBN: 9781451961751

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, Bayesian VAR estimation, lending standards, real gdp, gdp growth, standards, growth rate,

This paper builds a Bayesian VAR estimation model of growth for Canada, by focusing specifically on the role of external and domestic financial indicators, including credit conditions. A variance decomposition show...

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs1

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs1 »

Source: Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs

Volume/Issue: 2008/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pär Österholm , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

ISBN: 9781451869156

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Out-of-sample Forecasting, Granger Causality, money growth, monetary economics, central bank,

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up...

Financial Stability and Interest-Rate Policy

Financial Stability and Interest-Rate Policy »

Source: Financial Stability and Interest-Rate Policy : A Quantitative Assessment of Costs and Benefits

Volume/Issue: 2016/73

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrea Pescatori , and Stefan Laseen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 March 2016

ISBN: 9781475522679

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Endogenous Financial Risk, Bayesian VAR, Non-Linear Dynamics, Policy Evaluation.

Should monetary policy use its short-term policy rate to stabilize the growth in household credit and housing prices with the aim of promoting financial stability? We ask this question for the case of Canada. We fi...

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy »

Source: How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy : Nowcasting an Emerging Market

Volume/Issue: 2015/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhat Solmaz , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513598987

Keywords: Nowcasting, Bayesian estimation, VAR, Emerging Market, economy, domestic economy, risk, economies, external factors, Bayesian Analysis

External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial sho...

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary »

Source: Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary : Results from a Large Bayesian VAR

Volume/Issue: 2011/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adina Popescu , and Alina Carare

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923983

Keywords: Risk premium shocks, Transmission mechanism, Large Bayesian VAR, inflation, central bank, financial stability, foreign currency, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation, Bayesian Analysis

We document the transmission of monetary policy and risk-premium shocks in Hungary, by applying recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100...

Financial Frictions in Data

Financial Frictions in Data »

Source: Financial Frictions in Data : Evidence and Impact

Volume/Issue: 2014/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2014

ISBN: 9781484336557

Keywords: Financial Frictions, Bayesian VAR, External Financing Premium, Default risk, Financial shocks, Generalized IRF, DSGE, default, credit spread, maturity

This paper investigates financial frictions in US postwar data to understand the interaction between the real business cycle and the credit market. A Bayesian estimation technique is used to estimate a large Vector...

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation »

Source: The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2008/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

ISBN: 9781451870244

Keywords: Information content of money, inflation forecasting, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, general dynamic factor model, Bayesian estimation, aggregate demand

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among...

The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country*

The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country* »

Source: The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country

Volume/Issue: 2015/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Houssa , Jolan Mohimont , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 February 2015

ISBN: 9781498310147

Keywords: Credit Shocks, Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies, Sign Restrictions, Bayesian VAR, credit, productivity, inflation, prices, exchange, Models with Panel Data

We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shoc...