Time for Transformation
With economic leaders gathering soon in Marrakech, Morocco, for the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, this issue of F&D explores how the Arab world can tap growth opportunities and rebuild its economic standing.
Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity. Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.8 percent in 2023 and 5.2 percent in 2024. Underlying (core) inflation is projected to decline more gradually, and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward.
External Rebalancing in Turbulent Times
Global current account balances—the overall size of headline current account deficits and surpluses—widened for a third consecutive year in 2022. Main drivers were Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the uneven recovery from the pandemic, and the rapid tightening of US monetary policy. Concurrently, the US dollar appreciated substantially, and the uphill capital flow reappeared.
Institutional Arrangements for Fintech Regulation: Supervisory Monitoring
Reflecting potential efficiency and inclusion gains, technology-enabled innovation in financial services has increased greatly over the past decade, and a regulatory response is needed to ensure that new risks are promptly and accurately identified and addressed. Fintech is being used across financial services to generate efficiencies and lower costs for firms, improve compliance (RegTech), and help regulatory authorities achieve their objectives (SupTech).
Managing Fiscal Risks in the Middle East and North Africa
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are exposed to significant fiscal risks. This paper analyzes the sources of these fiscal risks in 17 low- and middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region, excluding high-income Gulf countries (MENAPEG), and discusses avenues for reform to strengthen fiscal risk management.
Trade Integration in Africa: Unleashing the Continent's Potential in a Changing World
Trade integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area could increase real GDP per capita, reduce poverty, and raise living standards. But unlocking these benefits will require investment in physical and human capital, a robust private sector, and social safety nets that support vulnerable communities. Greater regional trade integration and policy reforms are required in this changing world.
