Front Matter

Front Matter

Author(s):
Martin Sommer, Allan Auclair, Armand Fouejieu, Inutu Lukonga, Saad Quayyum, Amir Sadeghi, Gazi Shbaikat, Andrew Tiffin, and Bruno Versailles
Published Date:
June 2016
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    Middle East and Central Asia Department

    Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil

    Policy Adjustment in Oil-Exporting Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia

    IMF staff team led by Martin Sommer

    Middle East and Central Asia Department

    Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil

    Policy Adjustment in Oil-Exporting Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia

    Martin Sommer, Greg Auclair, Armand Fouejieu, Inutu Lukonga, Saad Quayyum, Amir Sadeghi, Gazi Shbaikat, Andrew Tiffin, Juan Trevino, and Bruno Versailles

    Copyright © 2016

    International Monetary Fund

    Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Joint Bank-Fund Library

    Names: Sommer, Martin. | et al. | International Monetary Fund. | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department.

    Title: Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil: Policy Adjustment in Oil-Exporting Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia / Martin Sommer, Greg Auclair, Armand Fouejieu, Inutu Lukonga, Saad Quayyum, Amir Sadeghi, Gazi Shbaikat, Andrew Tiffin, Juan Trevino, and Bruno Versailles.

    Description: Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2016. | At head of title: Middle East and Central Asia Department. | Includes bibliographical references.

    Identifiers: ISBN 978-1-51352-048-3 (paper)

    Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Middle East. | Economic development—Asia, Central. | Middle East—Economic conditions—1979- | Asia, Central—Economic conditions—1991-

    Classification: LCC HC412.A893 2016

    ISBN: 978-1-51352-048-3 (paper)

    The Middle East and Central Asia Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or cross-country interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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    Contents

    Preface

    This paper was prepared by the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department under the general guidance of Masood Ahmed, director of the department. The project was directed by Aasim M. Husain, deputy director, and led by Martin Sommer, deputy chief of the Regional Studies Division. Contributors to this report include Greg Auclair, Armand Fouejieu, Inutu Lukonga, Saad Quayyum, Amir Sadeghi, Gazi Shbaikat, Andrew Tiffin, Juan Trevino, and Bruno Versailles. Neil Hickey provided editorial support and Joe Procopio managed the report’s production. Hanan Altimimi Bane assisted with formatting and document preparation, with additional support from Esther George.

    This report is generally based on information as of April 2016. The macroeconomic assumptions and oil prices are consistent with those in the April 2016 World Economic Outlook. Specifically, the average Brent oil price is assumed at $36 a barrel in 2016 and $42 a barrel in 2017, gradually increasing to $51 a barrel in 2021.

    The paper focuses on policy challenges facing the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), Algeria, and oil exporters in the Caucasus and Central Asia (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan). To keep the focus on the impact of lower oil prices, this study does not cover developments in those Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) oil exporters where developments are also, or primarily, driven by conflicts (Iraq, Libya, and Yemen) or by the removal of sanctions (Iran).

    The word oil is used interchangeably for both crude oil and natural gas.

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