- Dalia Hakura, Adrian Alter, Matteo Ghilardi, Rodolfo Maino, Cameron McLoughlin, and Maximilien Queyranne
- Published Date:
- February 2015
Allen, Franklin, ElenaCarletti, RobertCull, JunQian, LemmaSenbet, and PatricioValenzuela.2012a. “Resolving the African Financial Development Gap: Cross-Country Comparisons and a Within-Country Study of Kenya.” NBER Working Paper 18013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Allen, Franklin, AsliDemirgüç-Kunt, LeoraKlapper, and MariaSoledad Peria.2012b. “The Foundations of Financial Inclusion: Understanding Ownership and Use of Formal Accounts.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6290, World Bank, Washington.
Alleyne, Trevor.2013. “Energy Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa, Experience and Lessons.” African Department Report 13/2, International Monetary Fund, Washington.
Andrianaivo, Mihasonirina, and KangniKpodar.2011. “ICT, Financial Inclusion, and Growth: Evidence from African Countries.” IMF Working Paper 11/73, International Monetary Fund, Washington.
Arze del Granado, Javier, DavidCoady, and RobertGillingham.2010. “The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries.” IMF Working Paper 10/202, International Monetary Fund, Washington.
Berg, Andrew, RafaelPortillo, Shu-Chun S.Yang, and Luis-FelipeZanna.2013. “Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries.” IMF Economic Review61 (1), 92–129.
Buffie, Edward F., AndrewBerg, CatherinePatillo, RafaelPortillo, and Luis-FelipeZanna.2012. “Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability: Putting Together the Pieces.” IMF Working Paper 12/177, International Monetary Fund, Washington.
Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, and LeoraKlapper.2012a. “Financial Inclusion in Africa: An Overview.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6088, World Bank, Washington.
Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, and LeoraKlapper.2012b. “Measuring Financial Inclusion: The Global Findex Database.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6025, World Bank, Washington.
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World Bank. 2013. Congo, Republic of - LISUNGI Safety Nets Project.Washington.
The national poverty line was about US$1.6 (CFAF 839) a day in 2005 (IMF 2012).
This section uses “resource fund” as a synonym for SWF.
The variables are in percent deviation from a trend-growth path, unless specified otherwise in parentheses.
The predicted level of debt is slightly higher compared with the projected value of the staff report baseline value. This is caused by the presence of domestic and concessional debt in the simulations.
Average production in 2012 and 2013 was 93 million barrels a year. After peaking at 118 million barrels in 2017, oil production is estimated to decline to about 18 million barrels by 2030.
This analysis considers countries that have a per capita GDP (in purchasing-power-parity U.S. dollars) between 25 percent above and 25 percent below that of Congo. The analysis is based on internationally comparable data, for which the latest observation is 2011 or 2012.
Congo’s population grew at an annual average rate of 3 percent over the same period.
The latest available international Gini coefficient is for 2005. For comparative analysis, the 2011 figure was estimated by applying the percentage point improvement between 2005 and 2011 taken from the national household survey, for which the Gini coefficient went down from 0.42 to 0.39 over this period.
Tax brackets are as follows (2014 budget act): 1 percent (CFA 0–0.46 million), 10 percent (CFA 0.46–1 million), 25 percent (CFA 1–3 million), 40 percent (CFA 3 to 8 million), and 45 percent (more than CFA 8 million).
Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, Vietnam, Yemen.
See World Bank 2014.
See Alleyne 2013.
Among others, Demirgüç-Kunt and Klapper (2012a) look as well at financial inclusion in Africa.
See for example Allen and others (2012a).
The “bankable” population refers to the share of the adult population with access to a formal financial account. The “better-off” and the “poor” are the top quintile and bottom quintile, respectively, of the adult population ranked by income.
For a discussion about the link between finance and growth see Levine 2005.
Piketty (2003) shows that the composition of the top 1 percent of the population by income is dominated by income flows related to rents, interest, and dividends.
The group of SSA frontier and emerging market economies refers to the following countries: Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. This group was constrained by data availability.
The benchmark represents the median value of a set of countries with similar GDP-per-capita characteristics.
Short-term credit is concentrated in extractive industries’ activities, public sector work (Bureau of Public Works and Civil Engineering), and electricity. Long-term credit is negligible. At the end of 2013, credit to the private sector totaled CFAF 763.9 billion and represented 73.3 percent of total gross credit compared with 83.6 percent in 2012.
The lack of collateral is one handicap of great economic importance for Congo. Land titles are not available, and property rights are not firmly established.
Mutuelles Congolaises d’Épargne et de Crédit (MUCODEC).
For a more detailed discussion of the policy recommendations for financial development in Africa see Allen and others 2012b.