Front Matter

Front Matter

Author(s):
Ranil Salgado
Published Date:
May 2016
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    World Economic and Financial Surveys

    Regional Economic Outlook

    Asia and Pacific

    Building on Asia’s Strengths during Turbulent Times

    APR 16

    ©2016 International Monetary Fund

    Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Regional economic outlook. Asia and Pacific. – Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2005–

    v. ; cm. – (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)

    Once a year.

    Began in 2005.

    Some issues have also thematic titles.

    1. Economic forecasting – Asia – Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting – Pacific Area – Periodicals. 3. Asia – Economic conditions – 1945- – Periodicals. 4. Pacific Area – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 5. Economic development – Asia – Periodicals. 6. Economic development – Pacific Area – Periodicals. I. Title: Asia and Pacific. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.

    HC412.R445

    ISBN-13: 978-1-49835-092-1 (Paper)

    ISBN-13: 978-1-48433-943-5 (Web PDF)

    The Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific is published annually in the spring to review developments in the Asia-Pacific region. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF Management.

    Please send orders to:

    International Monetary Fund, Publication Services

    700 19th St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A.

    Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201

    E-mail: publications@imf.org

    Internet: www.imf.org

    Contents

    Definitions

    In this Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, the following groupings are employed:

    • “ASEAN” refers to Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, unless otherwise specified.

    • “ASEAN-5” refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

    • “Advanced Asia” refers to Australia, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.

    • .“Emerging Asia” refers to China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

    • “Frontier and Developing Asia” refers to Bangladesh, Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

    • “Asia” refers to ASEAN, East Asia, Advanced Asia, South Asia and other Asian economies.

    • “EU” refers to the European Union

    • “G-7” refers to Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

    • “G-20” refers to Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

    The following abbreviations are used:

    ASEAN

    Association of Southeast Asian Nations

    BIS

    Bank for International Settlements

    CDIS

    Coordinated Direct Investment Survey

    CPI

    consumer price index

    CPIS

    Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey

    DSGE

    dynamic stochastic general equilibrium

    DVA

    domestic value added

    ECI

    economic complexity index

    FCI

    financial conditions index

    FDI

    foreign direct investment

    FX

    foreign exchange

    GDP

    gross domestic product

    GFCF

    gross fixed capital formation

    GMM

    generalized method of moments

    GVC

    global value chains

    LICs

    low-income countries

    OECD

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

    PICs

    Pacific island countries

    QQE

    quantitative and qualitative easing

    R&D

    research and development

    REER

    real effective exchange rate

    VAR

    vector autoregression

    VIX

    Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index

    WEO

    World Economic Outlook

    WTO

    World Trade Organization

    The following conventions are used:

    • In tables, a blank cell indicates “not applicable,” ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.

    • In figures and tables, shaded areas show IMF projections.

    • An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2007–08 or January–June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2007/08) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2009).

    • An em dash (—) indicates the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown.

    • “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.

    • “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

    As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

    This Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific was prepared by a team coordinated by Ranil Salgado of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, under the overall direction of Changyong Rhee and Kalpana Kochhar. Contributors include Serkan Arslanalp, Michael Robert Dalesio, Ding Ding, Luc Everaert, Giovanni Ganelli, Geoff Gottlieb, Roberto Guimarães Filho, Thomas Helbling, Gee Hee Hong, Sonali Jain Chandra, Tidiane Kinda, Wei Liao, Yihan Liu, Jaewoo Lee, Rui Mano, Koshy Mathai, Adil Mohommad, Dan Nyberg, Shi Piao, Sohrab Rafiq, Jacqueline Pia Rothfels, Johanna Schauer, and Dulani Seneviratne. Shi Piao and Dulani Seneviratne provided research assistance. Kathie Jamasali and Socorro Santayana provided production assistance. Rosanne Heller, former IMF APD editor, and Joanne Creary Johnson of the IMF’s Communications Department edited the volume. Joanne Creary Johnson coordinated its publication and release. This report is based on data available as of April 1 and includes comments from other departments and some Executive Directors.

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