- International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
- Published Date:
- October 2015
World Economic and Financial Surveys
Regional Economic Outlook
Middle East and Central Asia
©2015 International Monetary Fund
Regional economic outlook. Middle East and Central Asia. — Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2004—
v. ; cm. — (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)
Began in 2004.
Some issues also have thematic titles.
1. Economic forecasting – Middle East – Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting – Asia, Central – Periodicals. 3. Middle East – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 4. Asia, Central – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 5. Economic development – Middle East – Periodicals. 6. Economic development – Asia, Central – Periodicals. I. Title: Middle East and Central Asia. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
ISBN: 978-1-51352-852-6 (Paper)
ISBN: 978-1-51351-338-6 (Web PDF)
The Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia is published annually in the fall to review developments in the Middle East and Central Asia. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook (REO) is prepared annually by the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD). The analysis and projections contained in the MCD REO are integral elements of the Department’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in 31 member countries. It draws primarily on information gathered by MCD staff through their consultations with member countries.
The analysis in this report was coordinated under the general supervision of Masood Ahmed (Director of MCD). The project was directed by Aasim Husain (Deputy Director in MCD), Natalia Tamirisa (Chief of MCD’s Regional Studies Division), and Martin Sommer (Deputy Chief of MCD’s Regional Studies Division). The primary contributors to this report were Inutu Lukonga, Pritha Mitra, Saad Quayyum, and Bruno Versailles.
Other contributors included Kusay Alkhunaizi, Greg Auclair, Ritu Basu, Alberto Behar, Nabil Ben Ltaifa, Robert Blotevogel, Martin Cerisola, Kay Chung, Abdikarim Farah, Eddy Gemayel, Keiko Honjo, Maxym Kryshko, Davide Lombardo, Shamiso Mapondera, Gohar Minasyan, Eric Mottu, Dragana Ostojic, Gaëlle Pierre, Ben Piven, Björn Rother, Hossein Samiei, Andrea Santos, Rafik Selim, Asghar Shahmoradi, Moez Souissi, and Andrew Tiffin from the IMF; and Supriyo De, Kirsten Schuettler, and Seyed Reza Yousefi from the World Bank.
Gohar Abajyan, Gregory Hadjian, and Brian Hiland managed the database and computer systems and provided research assistance, with support from Greg Auclair, Mark Fischer, and Jonah Rosenthal. Esther George and Hanan Altimimi were responsible for word processing and document management. Giorgia Albertin, Xiangming Fang, Mbaye Gueye, Amina Lahreche, and Gaëlle Pierre reviewed the translations, in coordination with Yelena Eydinova. Neil Hickey edited the manuscript and coordinated manuscript production. Joanne Creary of the Communications Department oversaw typesetting and production of the publication.
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. It has been assumed that established policies of national authorities will be maintained, that the price of oil1 will average US$51.6 a barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S.-dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The 2015 and 2016 data in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early September 2015.
The following conventions are used in this publication:
In tables, ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2011–12 or January–June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2011/12) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY 2012).
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points (bps)” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.1 Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
The October 2015 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO), covering countries in the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the IMF, provides a broad overview of recent economic developments in 2015 and prospects and policy issues for 2016. To facilitate the analysis, the 31 MCD countries covered in this report are divided into two groups: (1) countries of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP)—which are further divided into oil exporters and oil importers; and (2) countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The country acronyms and abbreviations used in some figures are included in parentheses.
MENAP oil exporters comprise Algeria (ALG), Bahrain (BHR), Iran (IRN), Iraq (IRQ), Kuwait (KWT), Libya (LBY), Oman (OMN), Qatar (QAT), Saudi Arabia (SAU), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen (YMN).
MENAP oil importers1 comprise Afghanistan (AFG), Djibouti (DJI), Egypt (EGY), Jordan (JOR), Lebanon (LBN), Mauritania (MRT), Morocco (MAR), Pakistan (PAK), Somalia (SOM), Sudan (SDN), Syria (SYR), and Tunisia (TUN).
MENA comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
MENA oil importers comprise Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Tunisia.
The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The Non-GCC oil-exporting countries are Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen.
The Maghreb comprises Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia.
The Mashreq comprises Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
The ACTs (Arab Countries in Transition) are Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen.
The Arab World comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
CCA countries comprise Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Georgia (GEO), Kazakhstan (KAZ), the Kyrgyz Republic (KGZ), Tajikistan (TJK), Turkmenistan (TKM), and Uzbekistan (UZB).
CCA oil exporters comprise Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
CCA oil importers comprise Armenia, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan.
The CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Georgia, Mongolia, and Turkmenistan, which are not members of the CIS, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.1 Somalia is excluded from all regional aggregates owing to a lack of reliable data. For Sudan, data for 2012 onward exclude South Sudan. Because of the uncertain economic situation, Syria is excluded from the projection years of REO aggregates.