Front Matter
- International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
- Published Date:
- April 2015

World Economic and Financial Surveys
Regional Economic Outlook
Sub-Saharan Africa
Navigating Headwinds
APR 15
©2015 International Monetary Fund
Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa. — Washington, D.C.: International
Monetary Fund, 2003–
v. ; cm. — (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)
Twice a year.
Began in 2003.
Some issues have thematic titles.
1. Economic forecasting — Africa, Sub-Saharan — Periodicals. 2. Africa, Sub-Saharan — Economic conditions — 1960 — Periodicals. 3. Economic development — Africa, Sub-Saharan — Periodicals. I. Title: Sub-Saharan Africa. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
HC800.A1 R445
ISBN-13: 978-1-49832-984-2 (paper)
ISBN-13: 978-1-47551-995-2 (Web PDF)
The Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa is published twice a year, in the spring and fall, to review developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:
International Monetary Fund, Publication Services
P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090 (U.S.A.)
Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201
E-mail : publications@imf.org
Contents
2. How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Harness the Demographic Dividend?
3. Global Value Chains: Where Are You? The Missing Link in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Trade Integration
Boxes
1.2. Retail Gasoline Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Impact of Lower International Fuel Prices
Tables
Figures
Chapter 1
1.2. Selected Commodity Prices, Change from June 2014–March 25, 2015
1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth Projection 2015, Change from October 2014
1.5. Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporters: Fiscal Oil Revenue versus Oil Exports Share, 2013
1.6. Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporters: Fiscal Balance, 2014–16
1.7. Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporters: Current Account Balance, 2014–16
1.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth during Episodes of Oil Price Declines
1.11. Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporters: Fiscal Deposits and Projected Deficits, 2015–16
1.12. Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporters: External Reserve Assets and Projected Deficits, 2015–16
1.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Terms-of-Trade Index, 2015 versus 2014
1.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Other Non-Oil Commodity Exporters, Fiscal Revenue Breakdown, 2013
1.17. Selected Economies: Change in Sovereign Spreads since June-2013 and Fiscal Balance over 2015
1.19. Sub-Saharan African Market Access Countries: Current Account Balance
1.21. Sub-Saharan African Market Access Countries: Sovereign Spreads
Chapter 2
2.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Population Under Three Scenarios, 1950–2100
2.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Evolution of Shares of Working Age Population (SWAP)
2.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Share of Working Age Population and Real GDP per Capita, 2010
2.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Under-five Mortality and Fertility Rates, 2010–15
2.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Population Trends by Region, 1950–2100
2.10. Global Trends in Share of Working Age Population, 1950–2100
2.15. Selected Regions: Median Share of Working Age Population
2.24. Gross Secondary School Enrollment, Median, 2005 and 2014
2.25. Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per Capita Under Various Scenarios
2.26. Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dividend Relative to Scenario 1
2.27. Sub-Saharan Africa: Dividends Under Different Fertility Scenarios
Chapter 3
3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Goods Export Shares by Partner, 1995–2013
3.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Export Value Decomposition, 1981–2013
3.9. Selected Regions: Trade Openness and GDP per Person Employed, 1990–2011
3.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Trade Flows Compared with Other Regions
3.13. Participation in Global Value Chains, Average 1991–95 and 2008–12
3.17. Sub-Saharan Africa: Share of Manufacturing in the Economy, 2010 versus 1995
Abbreviations
AfDBAfrican Development Bank
BRICBrazil, Russia, India, and China
BVMACBourse des Valeurs Mobilières d’Afrique Centrale
BRVMBourse régionale des valeurs Mobilières
CEMACEconomic and Monetary Community of Central Africa
COMESACommon Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
DOTSDirection of Trade Statistics
DVADomestic value added
EACEast African Community
ECOWASCommunity of West African States
FAOFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FDIForeign direct investment
FSGMFlexible System of Global Models
FVAForeign value added
GDPGross domestic product
GVCsGlobal value chains
IDBInter-American Development Bank
IMFInternational Monetary Fund
IOInput output
OECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OLSOrdinary least squares
REORegional Economic Outlook
SACUSouthern African Customs Union
SADCSouthern Africa Development Community
SSASub-Saharan Africa
SWAPShare of the working age population
UMPUnconventional monetary policy
UNCTADUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development
WAEMUWest African Economic and Monetary Union
WAPWorking age population
WEOWorld Economic Outlook
WFPWorld Food Programme of the United Nations
WTOWorld Trade Organization
Acknowledgments
This April 2015 issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa (REO) was prepared by a team led by Céline Allard under the direction of Abebe Aemro Selassie.
The team included Rahul Anand, Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, Wenjie Chen, Paulo Drummond, Idan Elmelech, Richard Erlebach, Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia, Cleary Haines, Mumtaz Hussain, Emmanouil Kitsios, Bhaswar Mukhopadhyay, Marco Pani, Francisco Roch, George Rooney, Vimal Thakoor, Juan Treviño, and John Wakeman-Linn.
Specific contributions were made by Derek Anderson, Sebastian Corales, Daniela Marchettini, Dirk Vaughn Muir, and Mauricio Villafuerte.
Natasha Minges was responsible for document production, with typesetting assistance from Charlotte Vazquez. The editing and production were overseen by Joanne Creary Johnson of the Communications Department with assistance from Martha Bonilla.
The following conventions are used in this publication:
In tables, a blank cell indicates “not applicable,” ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2009–10 or January–June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2005/06) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2006).
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).