- International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
- Published Date:
- November 2012
© 2012 International Monetary Fund
Regional economic outlook. Middle East and Central Asia. – Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2004-
v. ; cm. – (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)
Twice a year.
Began in 2004.
Some issues also have thematic titles.
1. Economic forecasting – Middle East – Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting—Asia, Central—Periodicals. 3. Middle East—Economic conditions—Periodicals. 4. Asia, Central—Economic conditions—Periodicals. 5. Economic development—Middle East—Periodicals. 6. Economic development—Asia, Central—Periodicals. I. Title: Middle East and Central Asia. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
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The Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook (REO) is prepared annually (with a six-month update) by the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD). The analysis and projections contained in the MCD REO are integral elements of the Department’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in 30 member countries. It draws primarily on information gathered by MCD staff through their consultations with member countries.
The analysis in this report was coordinated under the general supervision of Masood Ahmed (Director of MCD). The project was directed by Paul Cashin (Chief of MCD’s Regional Studies Division).
The primary contributors to this report are Alberto Behar, Padamja Khandelwal, and Gabriel Sensenbrenner. Other contributors include Yasser Abdih, Marina Albino-War, David Amaglobeli, Adolfo Barajas, Christian Beddies, Paul Cashin, Serhan Cevik, Ralph Chami, Joshua Charap, Mariana Colacelli, Christian Ebeke, Jaime Espinosa Bowen, Ghada Fayad, Ricardo Fenochietto, Harald Finger, Davide Furceri, Susan George, Oussama Kanaan, May Khamis, Udo Kock, Annette Kyobe, Edouard Martin, Leandro Medina, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Mehdi Raissi, Pedro Rodriguez, Agustín Roitman, Randa Sab, Asghar Shahmoradi, Bahrom Shukurov, Gabriel Srour, Mariusz Sumlinski, Sampawende J. A. Tapsoba, and Paul Zimand.
Jaime Espinosa Bowen and Gohar Abajyan provided research assistance and managed the database and computer systems with support from Kamal Krishna and Marina Rousset. Deven Thead and Sanaa Farid were responsible for word processing and document management. Christine Ebrahimzadeh and Kia Penso edited the manuscript and managed the production of the publication in close collaboration with Joe Procopio of the External Relations Department.
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. It has been assumed that established policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the price of oil1 will average US$106.2 a barrel in 2012 and US$105.1 in 2013; and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.7 percent in 2012 and 0.6 percent in 2013. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The 2012 and 2013 data in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early September 2012.
The following conventions are used in this publication:
In tables, ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
An en dash (—) between years or months (for example, 2010—11 or January—June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2010/11) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2011).
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points (bps)” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.1 Simple average prices of U.K Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
Country and Regional Groupings
The November 2012 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO), covering countries in the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), provides a broad overview of recent economic developments in 2012 and prospects and policy issues for 2013. To facilitate the analysis, the 30 MCD countries covered in this report are divided into two main groups: (1) countries of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP)—which are further subdivided into oil exporters and oil importers; and (2) countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)—which are further subdivided into oil and gas exporters and oil and gas importers. The country acronyms used in some figures are included in parentheses.
MENAP oil exporters1,2 comprise Algeria (ALG), Bahrain (BHR), Iran (IRN), Iraq (IRQ), Kuwait (KWT), Libya (LBY), Oman (OMN), Qatar (QAT), Saudi Arabia (SAU), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen (YMN).
MENAP oil importers comprise Afghanistan (AFG), Djibouti (DJI), Egypt (EGY), Jordan (JOR), Lebanon (LBN), Mauritania (MRT), Morocco (MAR), Pakistan (PAK), Sudan (SDN), Syria (SYR), and Tunisia (TUN).
MENA comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Mauritania, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
MENA oil importers comprise Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, and Tunisia.
The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The Maghreb comprises Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia.
The Mashreq comprises Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
The ACTs (Arab countries in transition) comprise Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen.
CCA oil and gas exporters comprise Azerbaijan (AZE), Kazakhstan (KAZ), Turkmenistan (TKM), and Uzbekistan (UZB).
CCA oil and gas importers comprise Armenia (ARM), Georgia (GEO), the Kyrgyz Republic (KGZ), and Tajikistan (TJK).
The CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the CIS, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.1 Due to the uncertain economic situation, Syria is excluded from the projection years of REO aggregates.2 2011 data for Sudan exclude South Sudan; data for 2012 onward pertain to the current Sudan.