- Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012 : Western Hemisphere
- Published Date:
- April 2012
- International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2011, “Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?” Working Paper 11/165 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2012, “Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?” Working Paper, forthcoming (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2011, “Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom,” Working Paper 11/283 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2011, “Which Industries Are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?” Working Paper No. 2010—32 (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Board).
2008, “Spillovers across NAFTA,” Working Paper 08/3 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2012, “What Makes Growth Sustained,” Journal of Development Economics , forthcoming.
2009, “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks,” Econometrica , Vol. 77, No. 3, pp. 623–85.
2004, “On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects,” NBER Working Paper No. 10520 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
2005, “Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collapse in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile,” NBER Working Paper No. 11153 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
2011, “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies,” Working Paper No. 646 (Santiago: Central Bank of Chile).
2008, “Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,” American Economic Review , Vol. 98, No.1, pp. 439–57.
Congressional Budget Office, 2012, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 , (Washington: Congressional Budget Office).
2005, “Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans,” Journal of Banking and Finance , Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 83–104.
2012, “Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Real Estate Booms,” IMF Staff Discussion Note, forthcoming (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2011, “A Rising Natural Rate of Unemployment: Transitory or Permanent?” Working Paper No. 2011-05 (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Board).
2011, “Policies to Facilitate Labor Market Adjustment,” Selected Issues Paper, IMF Country Report No. 11/202 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2011, “Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?,” Working Paper No. 11/105 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Fondo de Garantías de Instituciones Financieras, 2009, “Crisis financiera colombiana en los anos noventa: origen, resolución y lecciones institucionales,” (Bogotá: FOGAFIN and Universidad Externado de Colombia).
2001, “Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2811 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).
2003, “The Design and Implementation of Subsidies for Housing Finance,” paper prepared for the World Bank Seminar on Housing Finance, March 10-13. Available via the Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/banking/capmarkets/housing
2008, “Exchange Rate Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?” Available via the Internet: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/ilzetzki/data/ERA-IMF%20class.xls
International Monetary Fund, 2007, World Economic Outlook (Washington: April).
International Monetary Fund, 2011a, Global Financial Stability Report Durable Financial Stability, Getting There from Here , (Washington: April).
International Monetary Fund, 2011b, Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere (Washington: April).
International Monetary Fund, 2011c, Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere (Washington: October).
International Monetary Fund, 2011d, World Economic Outlook (Washington: September).
International Monetary Fund, 2012, World Economic Outlook (Washington: April).
2008, “Latin America’s Local Currency Bond Markets: An Overview,” BIS Papers No. 36: New Financing Trends in Latin America: A Bumpy Road towards Stability , pp. 46–64 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements).
2010, “Long-Term Unemployment in the Great Recession,” Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress of the United States, April 29.
2011, “Job Search, Emotional Well-Being, and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 1–81.
2010, “Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?” Working Paper No. 10/182 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2007, “The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004,” Journal of International Economics Vol. 73, No. 11, pp. 223–50.
2006, “Financial Dollarization: Evaluating the Consequences,” Economic Policy , Vol. 21, No. 45, pp. 61–118.
2011a, “The Policy Interest-Rate Pass-Through in Central America,” Working Paper 11/240 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2011b, “Improving the Monetary Policy Frameworks in Central America,” Working Paper 11/245 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2008, “An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macro Aggregates and Micro Data,” NBER Working Paper No. 14049 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
2012, “Balance of Payments Dominance: Its Implications for Macroeconomic Policy” (unpublished; New York: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University).
2009, “Household Indebtedness in Sweden and Implications for Financial Stability-The Use of Household-Level Data,” in BIS Papers No. 46 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements).
2011, “The Role of Structural Reforms in Raising Economic Growth in Latin America,” Working Paper 11/248 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2012, Los actores de la crisis económica de fin de siglo, forthcoming (Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes).
2008, “Markets and Housing Finance,” Journal of Housing Economics , Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 239–51.
New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2011-April 2012
1. IMF Working Papers
WP/12/89 – Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States, by Oya Celasun, Roxana Mihet, and Lev Ratnovski.
WP/12/84 – Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility: Evidence from Brazil, by Macello Estevão and Irineu de Carvalho Filho.
WP/12/69 – How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms’ Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America, by Herman Kamil.
WP/12/62 – The Puzzle of Brazil High Interest Rates, by Alex Segura-Ubiergo.
WP/12/60 – Does Central Bank Capital Matter for Monetary Policy?, by Gustavo Adler, Pedro Castro, and Camilo E. Tovar.
WP/12/51 – Fiscal Policy and the Current Account: Are Microstates Different?, by Yehenew Endegnanew, Charles Amo Yartey, and Therese Turner-Jones.
WP/12/41 – Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexiblity, and Credit Booms, by Nicolas E. Magud, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Esteban R. Vesperoni.
WP/12/31 – Barbados: Sectoral Balance Sheet Mismatches and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities, by Charles Amo-Yartey.
WP/11/299 – Developments in Financial Supervision and the Use of Macroprudential Measures in Central America, by Fernando L. Delgado and Mynor Meza.
WP/11/283 – Commodity Price Cyrcles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom, by Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa.
WP/11/248 – The Role of Structural Reforms in Raising Economic Growth in Central America, by Andrew Swiston and Luis-Diego Barrott.
WP/11/247 – An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States, by Ying He and Carlos I. Medieros.
WP/11/245 – Improving the Monetary Policy Frameworks in Central America, by Stephanie Medina Cas, Alejandro Carrión-Menéndez, and Florencia Frantischek.
WP/11/240 – The Policy Interest Rate Pass-Through in Central America, by Stephanie Medina Cas, Alejandro Carrión-Menéndez, and Florencia Frantischek.
WP/11/220 – A Debt Intolerance Framework Applied to Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, by Geoffrey J. Banister and Luis-Diego Barrot.
WP/11/209 – Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics, by Man-Keung Tang and Xiangrong Yu.
WP/11/199 – Shocks, Financial Dependence, and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Industries, by Macello Estevão and Tiago Severo.
WP/11/197 – External Adjustment and the Global Crisis, by Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti.
WP/11/191 – Home Sweet Home: Government’s Role in Reaching the American Dream, by Evridiki Tsounta.
WP/11/165 – Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield against Appreciation Winds?, by Gustavo Adler and Camilo E. Tovar.
WP/11/159 – Policy Instruments to Lean against the Wing in Latin America, by Gilbert Terrier, Rodrigo O. Valdés, Camilo E. Tovar Mora, Jorge A. Chan Lau, Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos I. Medeiros, Man-Keung Tang, Mercedes Vera-Martin, and Christopher W. Walker.
WP/11/157 – The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries, by Alma Lucia Romero-Barrutieta, Ales Bulir, and Jose Daniel Rodriguez-Delgado.
WP/11/105 – Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?, by Macello M. Estevão and Evridiki Tsounta.
WP/11/92 – International Mutual Funds, Capital Flows Volatility, and Contagion—A Survey, by Gaston Gelos.
WP/11/84 – The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007—10, by Carlos I. Medeiros and Marco Rodriquez Waldo.
WP/11/72 – An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How?, by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari, and Julia Guerreiro.
WP/11/58 – Creditless Recoveries, by Abdul Abiad, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Grace Li.
WP/11/32 – Recession and Policy Transmission to Latin American Tourism: Does Expanded Travel to Cuba Offset Crisis Spillovers?, by Andrew M. Wolfe and Rafael Romeu.
WP/11/17 – Strengthening Chile’s Rule-Based Fiscal Framework, by Teresa Dabán Sánchez.
WP/11/14 – Interpreting Currency Movements During the Crisis: What’s the Role of Interest Rate Differences?, by Thomas Dowling and Nicoletta Batini.
WP/11/10 – What Is Driving Financial De-dollarization in Latin America?, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano and Sebastian Sosa.
WP/11/2 – The Chilean Output Gap, by Nicolas E. Magud and Leandro Medina.
2. Selected Issues Papers
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Brazil, by Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos and Paulo Medas.
Brazil’s Experience Managing Capital Inflows: The Role of Capital Flow Management Measures, by Roberto Benelli, Alex Segura-Ubiergo, and Chris Walker.
A Global Yield Model for Analyzing the Dynamics of Brazil’s Term Structure of Interest Rate, by Marco Rodriguez and Richard Munclinger.
Brazil’s External Competitiveness: What’s the Impact of China’s Competition?, by Roberto Benelli, Karlye Dilts, and Kai Guo.
How Strong Are Revenue Tailwinds in Brazil?, by Marialuz Moreno Badia and Fabian Bornhorst.
Taking Stock of Housing Finance in Brazil, by Roberto A. Perrelli and Aloísio Costa.
House Prices and Household Wealth in Canada, by Oya Celasun, Alejo Costa, and Jihad Dagher.
The Role of the CMHC in the Canadian Mortgage Market, by Jihad Dagher.
Dynamics and Composition of Gross and Net Government Debt, by Paulo Medas and Guilhem Blondy.
Bilateral Financial Linkages in an International Perspective, by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti.
Growth in the ECCU: What Went Wrong and Can It be Fixed, by Nita Thacker, Sebastian Acevedo, Joong Kang, Roberto Perrelli, and Melesse Tashu.
Public Debt in ECCU Countries, by Arnold McIntyre and Sumiko Ogawa.
Rationalizing Public Expenditure in the ECCU, by Shamsuddin Tareq, Alejandro Simone, Koffie Nassar, and Arina Viseth.
Chile: Assessment of Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness, by Jiri Podpiera and Yi Wu.
Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Domestic Credit, by Nicolas Magud.
Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? A Study of the Chilean Banking System, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.
Potential Growth and the Output Gap in Mexico, by Enrique Flories and Francisco Vazquez-Ahued.
Understanding Mexico’s Recent Export Performance, by Kai Guo.
Long-Term Fiscal Challenges in Mexico, Pablo Lopez-Murphy.
Paraguay—Potential Output Growth and Spillovers from Agriculture, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.
Bank Excess Reserves in Paraguay—Determinants and Implications, by Teresa Dabán Sánchez.
Towards a Structural Fiscal Framework, by Isabel Rial.
Institutional Framework for Macroprudential Policy, by Mercedes Vera Martin.
Advances and Challenges in Social Policies, by Yu Ching Wong.
Trinidad and Tobago
The Heritage and Stabilization Fund: Key Issues for the 2012 Review, by Joel Okwuokei, Hunter Monroe, and Judith Gold.
Developments and Prospects in the Energy Sector, by Machiko Narita and Judith Gold.
Collapse of CL Financial and Government Intervention, by Hunter Monroe.
Monetary Policy in Trinidad and Tobago, by Yi Wu.
The U.S. Housing Market Outlook—What Are the Potential Benefits of Mitigating Distressed Sales?, by Evridiki Tsounta.
Household Deleveraging and the Recovery, by Oya Celasun and Grace Bin Li.
Policies to Facilitate Labor Market Adjustment, by Marcello Estevão and Geoffrey Keim.
Strengthening Private Mortgage Securitization, by Sally Chen and John Kiff.
Why are U.S. Firms Hoarding Money?, by Nicoletta Batini and Joshua Felman.
How do Commodity Price Shocks Affect TIPS-Based Inflation Compensation?, by Oya Celasun, Roxanna Mihet, and Lev Ratnovski.
Fiscal Challenges Facing the U.S. State and Local Governments, by Martin Sommer.
Budget Institutions for Federal Fiscal Consolidation, by Martin Sommer.
The Challenge of Dealing with Mortgage Delinquencies, by John Kiff and Evridiki Tsounta.
Uruguay: Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap and the Spillovers from Agriculture, by Manuel Rosales Torres.
Investment Grade for Dollarized Countries: The Uruguayan Case, by Maria Gonzalez and Lulu Shui.
The Uruguayan Labor Market, by Natalia Melgar and Jiri Podpiera.
Uruguay: Some Aspects of Financial Intermediation, by Jiri Podpiera and Torsten Wezel.
Uruguay’s Pension System: Overview, by Manuel Rosales Torres.
Uruguay—Assessing the Structural Fiscal Stance, by Manuel Rosales Torres.
Transmission of Policy Rates in Uruguay: A Cross-Country Perspective, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.
Why is the Uruguayan Banking System so Unprofitable?, by Torsten Wezel.