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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012 : Western Hemisphere
Published Date:
April  2012
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

    Adler, Gustavo, andCamilo E. Tovar, 2011, “Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?Working Paper 11/165 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

      Adler, Gustavo, andSebastian Sosa, 2012, “Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?Working Paper, forthcoming (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

        Adler, Gustavo, andSebastian Sosa, 2011, “Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom,Working Paper 11/283 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

          Barnichon, Regis,Michael Elsby,Bart Hobjin, andAysegul Sahin, 2011, “Which Industries Are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?Working Paper No. 2010—32 (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Board).

            Bayoumi, Tamim, andAndrew Swiston, 2008, “Spillovers across NAFTA,Working Paper 08/3 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

              Berg, Andrew,Jonathan D. Ostry, andJeromin Zettelmeyer, 2012, “What Makes Growth Sustained, Journal of Development Economics , forthcoming.

                Bloom, Nicholas, 2009, “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks, Econometrica , Vol. 77, No. 3, pp. 62385.

                  Calvo, Guillermo A.,Alejandro Izquierdo, andLuis F. Mejia, 2004, “On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects,NBER Working Paper No. 10520 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

                    Calvo, Guillermo A., andErnesto Talvi, 2005, “Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collapse in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile,NBER Working Paper No. 11153 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

                      Carrière-Swallow, Yan, andLuis Felipe Céspedes, 2011, “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies,Working Paper No. 646 (Santiago: Central Bank of Chile).

                        Cerra, Valerie, andSweta Chaman Saxena, 2008, “Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery, American Economic Review , Vol. 98, No.1, pp. 43957.

                          Congressional Budget Office, 2012, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 , (Washington: Congressional Budget Office).

                            Cottarelli, Carlo,Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, andIvanna Vladkova-Hollar, 2005, “Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans, Journal of Banking and Finance , Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 83104.

                              Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni,Deniz Igan,Luc Laeven, andHui Tong, 2012, “Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Real Estate Booms,IMF Staff Discussion Note, forthcoming (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

                                Daly, Mary,Bart Hobjin,Aysegul Sahin, andRob Valletta, 2011, “A Rising Natural Rate of Unemployment: Transitory or Permanent?Working Paper No. 2011-05 (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Board).

                                  Estevão, Marcello, andGeoffrey Keim, 2011, “Policies to Facilitate Labor Market Adjustment,Selected Issues Paper, IMF Country Report No. 11/202 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

                                    Estevão, Marcello, andEvridiki Tsounta, 2011, “Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?,Working Paper No. 11/105 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

                                      Fondo de Garantías de Instituciones Financieras, 2009, “Crisis financiera colombiana en los anos noventa: origen, resolución y lecciones institucionales,” (Bogotá: FOGAFIN and Universidad Externado de Colombia).

                                        Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier,Rodrigo Valdés, andOscar Landerretche, 2001, “Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2811 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).

                                          Hoek-Smit, Marja C., andDouglas B. Diamond, 2003, “The Design and Implementation of Subsidies for Housing Finance,paper prepared for the World Bank Seminar on Housing Finance, March 10-13. Available via the Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/banking/capmarkets/housing

                                            Ilzetzki, Ethan,Carmen M. Reinhart, andKenneth S. Rogoff, 2008, “Exchange Rate Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?” Available via the Internet: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/ilzetzki/data/ERA-IMF%20class.xls

                                              International Monetary Fund, 2007, World Economic Outlook (Washington: April).

                                                International Monetary Fund, 2011a, Global Financial Stability Report Durable Financial Stability, Getting There from Here , (Washington: April).

                                                  International Monetary Fund, 2011b, Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere (Washington: April).

                                                    International Monetary Fund, 2011c, Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere (Washington: October).

                                                      International Monetary Fund, 2011d, World Economic Outlook (Washington: September).

                                                        International Monetary Fund, 2012, World Economic Outlook (Washington: April).

                                                          Jeanneau, Serge, andCamilo E. Tovar, 2008, “Latin America’s Local Currency Bond Markets: An Overview, BIS Papers No. 36: New Financing Trends in Latin America: A Bumpy Road towards Stability , pp. 4664 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements).

                                                            Katz, Lawrence, 2010, “Long-Term Unemployment in the Great Recession,Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress of the United States, April 29.

                                                              Kruger, Alan B., andAndreas Mueller, 2011, “Job Search, Emotional Well-Being, and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 181.

                                                                Lama, Ruy, andJuan Pablo Medina, 2010, “Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?Working Paper No. 10/182 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

                                                                  Lane, Philip R., andGian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007, “The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004, Journal of International Economics Vol. 73, No. 11, pp. 22350.

                                                                    Levy-Yeyati, Luis, 2006, “Financial Dollarization: Evaluating the Consequences, Economic Policy , Vol. 21, No. 45, pp. 61118.

                                                                      Medina Cas, Stephanie,Alejandro Carrión-Menéndez, andFlorencia Frantischeck, 2011a, “The Policy Interest-Rate Pass-Through in Central America,Working Paper 11/240 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

                                                                        Medina Cas, Stephanie,Alejandro Carrión-Menéndez, andFlorencia Frantischeck, 2011b, “Improving the Monetary Policy Frameworks in Central America,Working Paper 11/245 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

                                                                          Mendoza, Enrique G., andMarco E. Terrones, 2008, “An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macro Aggregates and Micro Data,NBER Working Paper No. 14049 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

                                                                            Ocampo, Jose, 2012, “Balance of Payments Dominance: Its Implications for Macroeconomic Policy” (unpublished; New York: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University).

                                                                              Persson, Mattias, 2009, “Household Indebtedness in Sweden and Implications for Financial Stability-The Use of Household-Level Data, in BIS Papers No. 46 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements).

                                                                                Swiston, Andrew, andLuis-Diego Barrot, 2011, “The Role of Structural Reforms in Raising Economic Growth in Latin America,Working Paper 11/248 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

                                                                                  Urrutia, Miguel, andJorge Llano, 2012, Los actores de la crisis económica de fin de siglo, forthcoming (Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes).

                                                                                    Warnock, Veronica C., andFrancis E. Warnock, 2008, “Markets and Housing Finance, Journal of Housing Economics , Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 23951.

                                                                                    New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2011-April 2012

                                                                                    1. IMF Working Papers

                                                                                    WP/12/89 – Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States, by Oya Celasun, Roxana Mihet, and Lev Ratnovski.

                                                                                    WP/12/84 – Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility: Evidence from Brazil, by Macello Estevão and Irineu de Carvalho Filho.

                                                                                    WP/12/69 – How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms’ Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America, by Herman Kamil.

                                                                                    WP/12/62 – The Puzzle of Brazil High Interest Rates, by Alex Segura-Ubiergo.

                                                                                    WP/12/60 – Does Central Bank Capital Matter for Monetary Policy?, by Gustavo Adler, Pedro Castro, and Camilo E. Tovar.

                                                                                    WP/12/51 – Fiscal Policy and the Current Account: Are Microstates Different?, by Yehenew Endegnanew, Charles Amo Yartey, and Therese Turner-Jones.

                                                                                    WP/12/41 – Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexiblity, and Credit Booms, by Nicolas E. Magud, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Esteban R. Vesperoni.

                                                                                    WP/12/31 – Barbados: Sectoral Balance Sheet Mismatches and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities, by Charles Amo-Yartey.

                                                                                    WP/11/299 – Developments in Financial Supervision and the Use of Macroprudential Measures in Central America, by Fernando L. Delgado and Mynor Meza.

                                                                                    WP/11/283 – Commodity Price Cyrcles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom, by Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa.

                                                                                    WP/11/248 – The Role of Structural Reforms in Raising Economic Growth in Central America, by Andrew Swiston and Luis-Diego Barrott.

                                                                                    WP/11/247 – An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States, by Ying He and Carlos I. Medieros.

                                                                                    WP/11/245 – Improving the Monetary Policy Frameworks in Central America, by Stephanie Medina Cas, Alejandro Carrión-Menéndez, and Florencia Frantischek.

                                                                                    WP/11/240 – The Policy Interest Rate Pass-Through in Central America, by Stephanie Medina Cas, Alejandro Carrión-Menéndez, and Florencia Frantischek.

                                                                                    WP/11/220 – A Debt Intolerance Framework Applied to Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, by Geoffrey J. Banister and Luis-Diego Barrot.

                                                                                    WP/11/209 – Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics, by Man-Keung Tang and Xiangrong Yu.

                                                                                    WP/11/199 – Shocks, Financial Dependence, and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Industries, by Macello Estevão and Tiago Severo.

                                                                                    WP/11/197 – External Adjustment and the Global Crisis, by Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti.

                                                                                    WP/11/191 – Home Sweet Home: Government’s Role in Reaching the American Dream, by Evridiki Tsounta.

                                                                                    WP/11/165 – Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield against Appreciation Winds?, by Gustavo Adler and Camilo E. Tovar.

                                                                                    WP/11/159 – Policy Instruments to Lean against the Wing in Latin America, by Gilbert Terrier, Rodrigo O. Valdés, Camilo E. Tovar Mora, Jorge A. Chan Lau, Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos I. Medeiros, Man-Keung Tang, Mercedes Vera-Martin, and Christopher W. Walker.

                                                                                    WP/11/157 – The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries, by Alma Lucia Romero-Barrutieta, Ales Bulir, and Jose Daniel Rodriguez-Delgado.

                                                                                    WP/11/105 – Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?, by Macello M. Estevão and Evridiki Tsounta.

                                                                                    WP/11/92 – International Mutual Funds, Capital Flows Volatility, and Contagion—A Survey, by Gaston Gelos.

                                                                                    WP/11/84 – The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007—10, by Carlos I. Medeiros and Marco Rodriquez Waldo.

                                                                                    WP/11/72 – An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How?, by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari, and Julia Guerreiro.

                                                                                    WP/11/58 – Creditless Recoveries, by Abdul Abiad, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Grace Li.

                                                                                    WP/11/32 – Recession and Policy Transmission to Latin American Tourism: Does Expanded Travel to Cuba Offset Crisis Spillovers?, by Andrew M. Wolfe and Rafael Romeu.

                                                                                    WP/11/17 – Strengthening Chile’s Rule-Based Fiscal Framework, by Teresa Dabán Sánchez.

                                                                                    WP/11/14 – Interpreting Currency Movements During the Crisis: What’s the Role of Interest Rate Differences?, by Thomas Dowling and Nicoletta Batini.

                                                                                    WP/11/10 – What Is Driving Financial De-dollarization in Latin America?, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano and Sebastian Sosa.

                                                                                    WP/11/2 – The Chilean Output Gap, by Nicolas E. Magud and Leandro Medina.

                                                                                    2. Selected Issues Papers


                                                                                    • The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Brazil, by Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos and Paulo Medas.

                                                                                    • Brazil’s Experience Managing Capital Inflows: The Role of Capital Flow Management Measures, by Roberto Benelli, Alex Segura-Ubiergo, and Chris Walker.

                                                                                    • A Global Yield Model for Analyzing the Dynamics of Brazil’s Term Structure of Interest Rate, by Marco Rodriguez and Richard Munclinger.

                                                                                    • Brazil’s External Competitiveness: What’s the Impact of China’s Competition?, by Roberto Benelli, Karlye Dilts, and Kai Guo.

                                                                                    • How Strong Are Revenue Tailwinds in Brazil?, by Marialuz Moreno Badia and Fabian Bornhorst.

                                                                                    • Taking Stock of Housing Finance in Brazil, by Roberto A. Perrelli and Aloísio Costa.


                                                                                    • House Prices and Household Wealth in Canada, by Oya Celasun, Alejo Costa, and Jihad Dagher.

                                                                                    • The Role of the CMHC in the Canadian Mortgage Market, by Jihad Dagher.

                                                                                    • Dynamics and Composition of Gross and Net Government Debt, by Paulo Medas and Guilhem Blondy.

                                                                                    • Bilateral Financial Linkages in an International Perspective, by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti.


                                                                                    • Growth in the ECCU: What Went Wrong and Can It be Fixed, by Nita Thacker, Sebastian Acevedo, Joong Kang, Roberto Perrelli, and Melesse Tashu.

                                                                                    • Public Debt in ECCU Countries, by Arnold McIntyre and Sumiko Ogawa.

                                                                                    • Rationalizing Public Expenditure in the ECCU, by Shamsuddin Tareq, Alejandro Simone, Koffie Nassar, and Arina Viseth.


                                                                                    • Chile: Assessment of Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness, by Jiri Podpiera and Yi Wu.

                                                                                    • Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Domestic Credit, by Nicolas Magud.

                                                                                    • Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? A Study of the Chilean Banking System, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.


                                                                                    • Potential Growth and the Output Gap in Mexico, by Enrique Flories and Francisco Vazquez-Ahued.

                                                                                    • Understanding Mexico’s Recent Export Performance, by Kai Guo.

                                                                                    • Long-Term Fiscal Challenges in Mexico, Pablo Lopez-Murphy.


                                                                                    • Paraguay—Potential Output Growth and Spillovers from Agriculture, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.

                                                                                    • Bank Excess Reserves in Paraguay—Determinants and Implications, by Teresa Dabán Sánchez.


                                                                                    • Towards a Structural Fiscal Framework, by Isabel Rial.

                                                                                    • Institutional Framework for Macroprudential Policy, by Mercedes Vera Martin.

                                                                                    • Advances and Challenges in Social Policies, by Yu Ching Wong.

                                                                                    Trinidad and Tobago

                                                                                    • The Heritage and Stabilization Fund: Key Issues for the 2012 Review, by Joel Okwuokei, Hunter Monroe, and Judith Gold.

                                                                                    • Developments and Prospects in the Energy Sector, by Machiko Narita and Judith Gold.

                                                                                    • Collapse of CL Financial and Government Intervention, by Hunter Monroe.

                                                                                    • Monetary Policy in Trinidad and Tobago, by Yi Wu.

                                                                                    United States

                                                                                    • The U.S. Housing Market Outlook—What Are the Potential Benefits of Mitigating Distressed Sales?, by Evridiki Tsounta.

                                                                                    • Household Deleveraging and the Recovery, by Oya Celasun and Grace Bin Li.

                                                                                    • Policies to Facilitate Labor Market Adjustment, by Marcello Estevão and Geoffrey Keim.

                                                                                    • Strengthening Private Mortgage Securitization, by Sally Chen and John Kiff.

                                                                                    • Why are U.S. Firms Hoarding Money?, by Nicoletta Batini and Joshua Felman.

                                                                                    • How do Commodity Price Shocks Affect TIPS-Based Inflation Compensation?, by Oya Celasun, Roxanna Mihet, and Lev Ratnovski.

                                                                                    • Fiscal Challenges Facing the U.S. State and Local Governments, by Martin Sommer.

                                                                                    • Budget Institutions for Federal Fiscal Consolidation, by Martin Sommer.

                                                                                    • The Challenge of Dealing with Mortgage Delinquencies, by John Kiff and Evridiki Tsounta.


                                                                                    • Uruguay: Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap and the Spillovers from Agriculture, by Manuel Rosales Torres.

                                                                                    • Investment Grade for Dollarized Countries: The Uruguayan Case, by Maria Gonzalez and Lulu Shui.

                                                                                    • The Uruguayan Labor Market, by Natalia Melgar and Jiri Podpiera.

                                                                                    • Uruguay: Some Aspects of Financial Intermediation, by Jiri Podpiera and Torsten Wezel.

                                                                                    • Uruguay’s Pension System: Overview, by Manuel Rosales Torres.

                                                                                    • Uruguay—Assessing the Structural Fiscal Stance, by Manuel Rosales Torres.

                                                                                    • Transmission of Policy Rates in Uruguay: A Cross-Country Perspective, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.

                                                                                    • Why is the Uruguayan Banking System so Unprofitable?, by Torsten Wezel.

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