Front Matter

Front Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Published Date:
April 2011
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    ©2011 International Monetary Fund

    Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Regional economic outlook. Middle East and Central Asia. – Washington, D.C.:

    • International Monetary Fund, 2004-

    • v.; cm. – (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)

    • Twice a year.

    • Began in 2004.

    • Some issues have also thematic titles.

    1. Economic forecasting – Middle East – Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting – Asia, Central – Periodicals. 3. Middle East – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 4. Asia, Central – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 5. Economic development – Middle East – Periodicals. 6. Economic development – Asia, Central – Periodicals. I. Title: Middle East and Central Asia. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.

    HC412.R445

    ISBN-13 978-1-61635-064-2

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    Contents

    Preface

    The Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook (REO) is prepared biannually by the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD). The analysis and projections contained in the MCD REO are integral elements of the Department’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in 30 member countries. It draws primarily on information gathered by IMF staff through their consultations with member countries.

    The analysis in this report was coordinated under the general supervision of Masood Ahmed (Director of MCD). The project was directed by Ratna Sahay (Deputy Director in MCD) and Ralph Chami (Division Chief in MCD).

    The primary contributors to this report are Yasser Abdih, Adolfo Barajas, Andreas Bauer, Paul Cashin, Ana Lucía Coronel, Mark Horton, Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Tobias Rasmussen, David Robinson, and Axel Schimmelpfennig. Other contributors include Ali Al-Eyd, David Amaglobeli, Veronica Bacalu, Svetlana Cerovic, Joshua Charap, Jemma Dridi, Dominique Guillaume, Nadeem Ilahi, Annette Kyobe, Agustín Roitman, Dmitriy Rozhkov, Niklas Westelius, and Roman Zytek.

    Jaime Espinosa provided research assistance and managed the database and the computer systems, with support from Gohar Abajyan, Arthur Ribeiro, Renas Sidahmed, and Chunfang Yang. Jasmine Lief was responsible for word processing and document management, with support from Naghmeh Djahanyekta and Sanaa Farid. In close collaboration with Joanne Blake and Martha Bonilla of the External Relations Department, Kia Penso edited the manuscript, and Christine Ebrahimzadeh managed the production of the publication.

    Assumptions and Conventions

    A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. It has been assumed that established policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the price of oil1 will average US$107.16 per barrel in 2011 and US$108 in 2012; and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.6 percent in 2011 and 0.9 percent in 2012. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through late March 2011.

    The following conventions are used in this publication:

    • In tables, ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.

    • An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2009–10 or January-June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2009/10) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2010).

    • “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.

    • “Basis points (bps)” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

    As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

    1Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.

    Country and Regional Groupings

    The April 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO), covering countries in the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), provides a broad overview of recent economic developments in 2010 and prospects and policy issues for the remainder of 2011. To facilitate the analysis, the 30 MCD countries covered in this report are divided into two groups: (1) countries of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP)–which are further subdivided into oil exporters and oil importers; and (2) countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The country acronyms used in some figures are included in parentheses.

    MENAP oil exporters1 comprise Algeria (ALG), Bahrain (BHR), Iran (IRN), Iraq (IRQ), Kuwait (KWT), Libya (LBY), Oman (OMN), Qatar (QAT), Saudi Arabia (SAU), Sudan (SDN), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen (YMN).

    MENAP oil importers comprise Afghanistan (AFG), Djibouti (DJI), Egypt (EGY), Jordan (JOR), Lebanon (LBN), Mauritania (MRT), Morocco (MAR), Pakistan (PAK), Syria (SYR), and Tunisia (TUN).

    CCA countries comprise Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Georgia (GEO), Kazakhstan (KAZ), the Kyrgyz Republic (KGZ), Tajikistan (TJK), Turkmenistan (TKM), and Uzbekistan (UZB).

    In addition, the following geographical groupings are used:

    MENA comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Mauritania, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

    The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    The Maghreb comprises Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq comprises Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.

    The CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the CIS, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

    1Due to the uncertain economic situation, Libya is excluded from the projection years of REO aggregates.
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