- International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
- Published Date:
- May 2010
2009, “Remittances and the Dutch Disease,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 2007–08a (Atlanta: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta).
2005, “Exogenous Inflows and Real Exchange Rates: Theoretical Quirk or Empirical Reality?” paper presented at the IMF Seminar on Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Management, Maputo, Mozambique, March14–15.
2003, “Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease,” CSAE Working Paper 184 (Oxford: Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford University).
2004, “Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance and Dutch Disease in Low Income Countries,” Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series 201 (Oxford: Department of Economics, Oxford University).
1998, “Aid and the Real Exchange Rate: Dutch Disease Effects in African Countries,” Intereconomics, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 177–85.
2004, “Workers’ Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts,” World Development, Vol. 32, pp. 1407–17.
2005, “The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability,” IMF Working Paper 05/119 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
The Credit Boom in EU Emerging Europe: Bad Luck or Bad Policies?” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).“
2008, “Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets,” IMF Working Paper 08/259 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2006, “A Policymakers’ Guide to Dutch Disease,” Working Paper 91 (Washington: Center for Global Development).
2004, “Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?” IMF Working Paper 04/52 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
1999, Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises: The Role of Early Warning Systems, IMF Occasional Paper No. 186 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2008, “The Dutch Disease and Its Neutralization: A Ricardian Approach,” Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 28, No. 1 (109), pp. 47–71.
1982, “Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the ‘Dutch Disease,’” NBER Working Paper No. 852 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
1983, “Oil, Disinflation and Export Competitiveness: A Model of the Dutch Disease,” in Economic Interdependence and Flexible Exchange Rates, ed. by (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press).
2007, “Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis,” NBER Working Paper No. 13077 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
2008, “Unions, Dutch Disease and Unemployment,” Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 40, No. 2, pp. 302–21.
1981, “The Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy and North Sea Oil,” Oxford Economic Papers, Nos. 23–46.
1984, “Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation,” Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 359–80.
1982, “Booming Sector and De-industrialization in a Small Open Economy,” Economic Journal, Vol. 92, pp. 825–48.
2003, “An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System,” NBER Working Paper No. 9971 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
2005, “Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And if Not, How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?” NBER Working Paper No. 11541 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
1983, “Oil Export Boom and Dutch-Disease: A Dynamic Analysis,” Resources and Energy, Vol. 5, Issue 3, pp. 219–42 (Amsterdam: North-Holland).
2006, “Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs,” IMF Working Paper 06/101 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2004, “Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality,” Working Paper Series 04–038 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University).
2004, Financial Stability in Dollarized Economies, IMF Occasional Paper No. 230 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
1997, “A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth,” Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 3, pp. 204–25.
1983, “Dutch Disease—How Much Sickness, How Much Boom?” Resources and Energy, Vol. 5, Issue 1, pp. 1–20 (Amsterdam: North-Holland).
2005, “The Macroeconomic Effects of Foreign Aid,” inDevelopment Cooperation—Evaluation and New Approaches, ed. by (Berlin: Duncker & Humblot).
2004, “Growth Accelerations,” NBER Working Paper No. 10566 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
2009, “How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?” CEPR Policy Insight, No. 39.
International Monetary Fund, 2009, Global Financial Stability Report (Washington, October).
International Monetary Fund, 2010, Global Financial Stability Report (Washington, April).
International Monetary Fund, 2008a, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (Washington, October).
International Monetary Fund, 2009b, Regional Economic Outlook: WesternHemisphere (Washington, May).
International Monetary Fund, 2009c, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (Washington, October).
International Monetary Fund, 2010d, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (Washington, May).
International Monetary Fund, 2008e, World Economic Outlook (Washington, October).
International Monetary Fund, 2009f, World Economic Outlook (Washington, October).
International Monetary Fund, 2010g, World Economic Outlook (Washington, April).
1998, Exchange Rate Assessment: Extensions of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach, IMF Ocassional Paper No. 167 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
1998, “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 1 (March), pp. 1–48.
1987, “The Narrow Moving Band, the Dutch Disease, and the Competitive Consequences of Mrs. Thatcher,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 27, pp. 41–55.
2008, “Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database,” IMF Working Paper 08/224 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2004, “Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease. When and Why Norway Caught Up With and Forged Ahead of its Neighbors,” Discussion Paper 377, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
2008, “Remittances, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 2008–12.
2008, Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies, IMF Occasional Paper No. 2621 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2007, “Fear of Appreciation,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4387.
When and Why Should Policymakers Worry About Real Appreciation and Dutch Disease: An Assesment,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).“
2005, “Optimal Dutch Disease,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 78, No. 2, pp. 494–515.
2005, “Why is ‘the Dutch Disease’ Always a Disease? The Macroeconomic Consequences of Scaling up ODA,” International Poverty Centre Working Paper 10 (New York: UNDP).
A Commodity Curse? The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).“
2008, “An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macro Aggregates and Micro Data,” NBER Working Paper No. 14049 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
1998, “Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities,” IMF Working Paper 98/89 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2008, “Real Exchange Rates, Saving and Growth: Is There a Link?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4636.
2004, “Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries: Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses,” IMF Working Paper 04/49 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2010, “Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls,” IMF Staff Position Note No. 10/04 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2007, “Foreign Capital and Economic Growth,” IZA Discussion Paper No. 3186.
2005, “Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?” IMF Working Paper 06/145 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2009, “Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth,” Working Paper 196 (Washington: Center for Global Development).
2005, “What Undermines Aid’s Impact on Growth?” IMF Working Paper 05/126 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2008, “The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Washington: Brookings Institution).
2003, “Determinants of the Chilean Sovereign Spread: Is It Purely Fundamentals?” Documentos de Trabajo (Santiago: Central Bank).
2004, “Determinants of Spread, Credit Ratings and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Follow-Up Study Using Pooled Data Analysis,” Borradores de Economía, No. 296 (Bogotá: Banco de la República).
1999, “The Big Push, Natural Resource Booms and Growth,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 59, pp. 43–76.
2001, “The Curse of Natural Resources,” European Economic Review, Vol. 45, pp. 827–38.
2002, “External Aid Flows and the Real Exchange Rate in Ghana,” AERC Research Paper 110 (Nairobi: African Economic Research Consortium).
2006, “Stabilization, Debt, and Fiscal Policy in the Caribbean,” IMF Working Paper 05/26 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
2003, “Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria,” NBER Working Paper 9804 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
2001, “Learning by Doing and the Dutch Disease,” European Economic Review, Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 285–306.
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2009, “Dynamics of Social Spending, Monetary Transfers and Co-Responsibility Transfer Programs,” Briefing Paper, pp. 22–32.
1998, “Dutch Disease and Policy Adjustments to the Oil Boom: A Comparative Study of Indonesia and Mexico,” Resources Policy, Vol. 23, Issue 4, pp. 151–62.
1984, “The ‘Dutch Disease’: A Disease After All?” Economic Journal, Vol. 94, No. 373, pp. 41–55.
2010, “What to Expect When You Are Expecting … Large Capital Inflows? Lessons from Cross-Country Experiences with Large Capital Inflows,” Country Report No. 10/98 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
1998, “Aid Flows and Dutch Disease in a General Equilibrium Framework for Pakistan,” Journal of Policy Modelling, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 77–109.
New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, 2009–10
1. IMF Working Papers
|WP/09/101||What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?||Batini, Nicoletta and Eugen Tereanu|
|WP/09/109||Estimating Default Frequencies and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking Sector||Blavy, Rodolphe and Marcos Souto|
|WP/09/112||An Alternative Explanation for the Resource Curse: The Income Effect Channel||Alichi, Ali and Rabah Arezki|
|WP/09/117||Macroeconomic Responses to Terms-of-Trade Shocks: A Framework for Policy Analysis for the Argentine Economy||Berkmen, Pelin|
|WP/09/152||Why Are Canadian Banks More Resilient?||Huang, Rocco and Lev Ratnovski|
|WP/09/162||Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling||Capuano, Christian, Jorge Chan-Lau, Giancarlo Gasha, Carlos Medeiros, Andre Santos, and Marcos Souto|
|WP/09/18||On Impatience and Policy Effectiveness||Bayoumi, Tamim and Silvia Sgherri|
|WP/09/198||The Real Effects of Financial Sector Risk||Tieman, Alexander F. and Andrea Maechler|
|WP/09/199||Modernizing Bank Regulation in Support of Financial Deepening: The Case of Uruguay||Adler, Gustavo, Mario Mansilla, and Torsten Wezel|
|WP/09/22||Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy||Batini, Nicoletta, Paul Levine, and Joseph Pearlman|
|WP/09/235||Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-Crisis Assessment||Tsounta, Evridiki|
|WP/09/24||Can Markets Compute Equilibria?||Monroe, Hunter|
|WP/09/240||Treating Intangible Inputs as Investment Goods: The Impact on Canadian GDP||Belhocine, Nazim|
|WP/09/250||The Stock of Intangible Capital in Canada: Evidence from the Aggregate Value of Securities||Belhocine, Nazim|
|WP/09/259||From Lombard Street to Avenida Paulista: Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing in Brazil in Response to the Global Shock of 2008–09||Stone, Mark R., W. Christopher Walker, and Yosuke Yasui|
|WP/09/264||Investment-Specific Productivity Growth: Chile in a Global Perspective||Di Bella, Gabriel and Martin Cerisola|
|WP/09/266||How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs in Emerging Markets?||Agca, Senay and Oya Celasun|
|WP/09/272||Who Disciplines Bank Managers?||Cihák, Martin, Andrea Maechler, Klaus Schaeck, and Stéphanie Stolz|
|WP/09/280||The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact||Berkmen, Pelin, Gaston Gelos, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh|
|WP/09/30||Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21st Century? The Recent Experience of Colombia||Clements, Benedict and Herman Kamil|
|WP/09/38||Can the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Afford to Grow Old?||Monroe, Hunter K.|
|WP/09/40||Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses||Cardarelli, Roberto, Selim Elekdag, and M. Ayhan Kose|
|WP/09/56||A Primer on Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries||Medas, Paulo and Daria Zakharova|
|WP/09/58||Social Security Reforms in Colombia: Striking Demographic and Fiscal Balances||Clavijo, Sergio|
|WP/09/59||Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia||Clements, Benedict, Enrique Flores, and Daniel Leigh|
|WP/09/61||Universal Health Care 101: Lessons for the Eastern Caribbean and Beyond||Tsounta, Evridiki|
|WP/09/63||Global Imbalances: The Role of Non-Tradable Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies||Cova, Pietro, Massimiliano Pisani, Nicoletta Batini, and Alessandro Rebucci|
|WP/09/71||ECCU Business Cycles: Impact of the United States||Sun, Yan and Wendell Samuel|
|WP/09/77||Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union||Dehesa, Mario, Emilio Pineda, and Wendell Samuel|
|WP/09/78||Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union||Cashin, Paul, Emilio Pineda, and Yan Sun|
|WP/09/85||Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model||Canales Kriljenko, Jorge, Charles Freedman, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Marianne Johnson, and Douglas Laxton|
|WP/09/94||Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Policy Credibility||Alichi, Ali, Huigang Chen, Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Marianne Johnson, Ondra Kamenik, Turgut Kisinbay, and Douglas Laxton|
|WP/09/95||Ponzi Schemes in the Caribbean||Carvajal, Ana, Hunter Monroe, Catherine Pattillo, and Brian Wynter|
|WP/10/05||The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada: What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?||Duttagupta, Rupa and Natalia Barrera|
|WP/10/1||Post-Crisis Bank Behavior: Lessons from Mercosur||Sanya, Sarah and Montfort Mlachila|
|WP/10/102||The Global Credit Crunch and Foreign Banks’ Lending to Emerging Markets: Why Did Latin America Fare Better?||Kamil, Herman and Kulwant Rai|
|WP/10/13||Canada’s Potential Growth: Another Victim of the Crisis?||Estevão, Marcello and Evridiki Tsounta|
|WP/10/2||Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework||Chan-Lau, Jorge A. and Andre Santos|
|WP/10/23||Financial Shocks and TFP Growth||Estevão, Marcello and Tiago Severo|
|WP/10/3||Investment by Large Firms in Argentina||Piris, Alvaro|
|WP/10/35||Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis: What a Difference a Year Makes||Swiston, Andrew|
|WP/10/42||Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey||Batini, Nicoletta, Young-Bae Kim, Paul Levine, and Emanuela Lotti|
|WP/10/43||Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies||Medina, Leandro, Jordi Prat, and Alun Thomas|
|WP/10/54||Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia||Valencia, Fabian|
|WP/10/59||Caribbean Bananas: The Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Preference Erosion||Cashin, Paul, Cleary Haines, and Montfort Mlachila|
|WP/10/60||The Influence of “Big Brothers”: How Important Are Regional Factors for Uruguay?||Sosa, Sebastián|
|WP/10/62||The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves||Celasun, Oya and Geoffrey Keim|
|WP/10/86||The Embodiment of Intangible Investment Goods: A Q-Theory Approach||Belhocine, Nazim|
|WP/10/98||Regulatory Capital Charges for Too-Connected-to-Fail Institutions: A Practical Proposal||Chan-Lau, Jorge A.|
2. Selected Issues Papers
|Bolivia||Hydrocarbon Revenue Sharing Arrangements||Bornhorst, Fabian|
|Bolivia||Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia||Valencia, Fabian|
|Canada||Canadian Banks and the Credit Turmoil||Ratnovski, Lev and Rocco Huang|
|Canada||Canadian Residential Mortgage Markets: Boring But Effective?||Kiff, John|
|Canada||How Do Commodity Prices Affect Economic Slumps in Commodity Exporters?||Duttagupta, Rupa|
|Canada||Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Tale of Two Regions||Tsounta, Evridiki|
|Canada||The Impact of Global Shocks on Canada—What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?||Duttagupta, Rupa and Natalia Barrera|
|Caribbean||Risk Analysis of Public Debt in the Caribbean: A “Fan-Chart” Approach||Nassar, Koffie and Catherine Pattillo|
|Chile||A Longer-Term Approach to Fiscal Policy in Chile||Gracia, Borja, Gabriel Di Bella, and Martin Cerisola|
|Chile||Investment-Specific Productivity Growth: Chile in a Global Perspective||Di Bella, Gabriel and Martin Cerisola|
|Chile||The Global Financial Turmoil and Its Impact on Chilean Banks||Chan-Lau, Jorge|
|Colombia||Determinants of Investment Grade Status and Implications for Colombia’s Public Debt||Jaramillo, Laura|
|Colombia||Does Financial Soundness Affect Credit Growth?||Petrova, Iva and Enrique Flores|
|ECCU||Insurance Against Natural Disasters in the Caribbean||Wong, Yu Ching, Anthony Lemus, and Nancy Wagner|
|Mexico||Estimating Default Frequencies and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking System||Blavy, Rodolphe and Marcos Souto|
|Mexico||Exchange Rate Exposure of the Mexican Corporate Sector: Progress and Remaining Vulnerabilities||Kamil, Herman and Chris Walker|
|Mexico||Labor Market Informality and Macroeconomic Performance||Magnusson Bernard, Kristin|
|Mexico||Reforming the Fiscal Framework: Budget Rules and Fiscal Risks||Palomba, Geremia|
|Mexico||The Global Crisis and Potential Growth in Mexico||Krajnyak, Kornelia|
|Mexico, United States||The Significance of U.S. Regional Economic Conditions for Remittances to Mexico||Magnusson, Kristin|
|Peru||Disentangling the Motives for Foreign Exchange Intervention in Peru||Gonzalez, Maria|
|Peru||Peru: Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities in a Dollarized Economy||Gonzalez, Maria|
|Peru||Peru: Credit Growth: Anatomy and Policy Responses||Breuer, Luis, Jose Gasha, Giancarlo Peschiera, and Juan Alonso Perez-Salmon|
|Peru||Peru: Macroeconomic Stability and the Role of Fiscal Policy||Leigh, Daniel|
|Peru||Peru: Regional Disparities and Public Transfers||Garcia-Escribano, Mercedes|
|Uruguay||Commodity Prices, Growth and the Fiscal Position in Uruguay||Babihuga, Rita|
|Uruguay||Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning in Uruguay||Wezel, Torsten|
|Uruguay||Exchange Rate and Competitiveness Assessment||Zanna, Felipe|
|Uruguay||How Important Are Regional Factors for Uruguay?||Sosa, Sebastian|
|United States||Spillovers from U.S. Federal Debt Issuance: The Case of Emerging Market Sovereign Borrowing||Celasun, Oya|
|United States||Strategic Priorities for the Reform of U.S. Financial Regulation||Bhatia, Ashok, Andrea Maechler, and Paul Mills|
|United States||The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: A Stochastic Simulation Approach||Celasun, Oya and Geoffrey Keim|
|United States||U.S. Potential Growth in the Aftermath of the Crisis||Barrera, Natalia, Marcello Estevao, and Geoffrey Keim|