Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Published Date:
October 2009
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    Appendix Fiscal Policy: How Much Space Do Countries Have?

    The ongoing global crisis has revived the discussion on the role of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. Lately, discussions among policy makers have centered around fiscal stimulus packages and, more generally, on the use of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic demand and mitigating the adverse impact of the crisis. Indeed, many countries in the region have already implemented such countercyclical policy (see box for definition), but looking forward many of them are constrained by the lack of additional fiscal space.

    Fiscal space is defined here as “the scope for financing a deficit without undue crowding out of private activity, sharp increases in funding costs, or undermining debt sustainability.”1 There is no standard method of constructing an index of fiscal space. A simple approach is taken here by focusing on two variables: the stock of existing public debt and the level of interest rates.2 Public debt matters because it entails debt service requirements that could limit fiscal space for pursuing countercyclical fiscal policy. In addition, interest rates on government borrowing reflect the opportunity cost of fiscal stimulus. If government borrowing is from domestic sources, higher interest rates will crowd out borrowing by the private sector. If borrowing is from external sources, higher interest rates will attract capital inflows, causing an appreciation in the real exchange rate which, in turn, reduces the country’s international competitiveness.

    Figures 1 and 2 present the relationship between the public debt-to-GDP ratio and real interest rates for countries in the region in 2009. Based on data availability, two alternative interest rate measures are used: t-bill rates (Figure 1) and lending rates by commercial banks (Figure 2).

    Figure 1Real T-Bill Rates and Total Public Debt/GDP

    (In percent, 2009)

    Source: IMF staff estimates and International Financial Statistics.

    Figure 2Real Lending Rates and Total Public Debt/GDP

    (In percent, 2009)

    Source: IMF staff estimates; lending rates are from International Financial Statistics.

    Several interesting observations emerge:

    • MENAP oil importers face relatively high interest rates and have high debt-to-GDP ratios, constraining the scope of additional fiscal stimulus. Four out of eight countries that have interest rates and debt-to-GDP ratios above the median are MENAP oil importers. In fact, with the exception of Mauritania, these countries are projected to pursue a procyclical fiscal stance in 2010—suggesting limited fiscal space.

    • MENAP oil exporters face relatively low interest rates and have relatively low debt-to-GDP ratios, suggesting more scope for fiscal stimulus. Seven out of the ten countries that have interest rates and debt-to-GDP ratios below the median are MENAP oil exporters. These countries have room for fiscal stimulus and could pursue expansionary fiscal policy in 2010 given that the global recovery will remain muted.

    • Several CCA countries—Armenia, Georgia, and Tajikistan—face very high interest rates, restricting fiscal space. This is consistent with the procyclical policy stance projected for these countries in 2010.

    Defining Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

    Following standard methodology [IMF (2009)],1 the change in the non-oil primary fiscal balance is decomposed into the change in the cyclically-adjusted non-oil primary balance (fiscal impulse) plus the change in the cyclical non-oil primary balance (automatic stabilizers).2 The former captures discretionary fiscal actions while the latter reflects the impact on the primary balance of cyclical movements in output. For example, in a downturn, the primary balance “automatically” worsens as tax bases shrink.

    Fiscal policy is defined as contractionary when the change in the cyclically-adjusted (non-oil) primary balance is positive, and expansionary when the change in the cyclically-adjusted (non-oil) primary balance is negative. Expansionary (contractionary) fiscal policy in the downward (upward) phase of the business cycle represents a countercyclical fiscal stance. Expansionary (contractionary) fiscal policy in the upward (downward) phase of the business cycle captures a procyclical fiscal stance.3

    Computing fiscal impulses (and automatic stabilizers) requires a measure of the output gap, and estimates of the elasticities of (non-oil) revenue and primary expenditures with respect to the output gap. The output gap is computed as the deviation of actual output from potential output expressed as a percent of potential output. It is estimated by applying an H-P filter to real (non-oil) output, with a smoothing parameter λ = 100. To address the end point problem of the HP filter, the real (non-oil) output time series are used over the period 1999–2020.4

    As is standard in studies of other developing and emerging market countries, it is assumed that the elasticities of (non-oil) revenue and primary expenditures with respect to the output gap are unity and zero, respectively, for all countries.5

    1 IMF (2009), “The State of Public Finances: Outlook and Medium-Term Policies After the 2008 Crisis.”2 The non-oil primary balance is computed as non-oil revenue minus primary expenditures.3 During the upward phase of the business cycle the output gap increases, which means that the output gap becomes less negative if output is below potential and more positive if output is above potential. During the downward phase, the output gap decreases, becoming less positive if output is above potential and more negative if output is below potential.4 Projected growth rates for 2009–20.5 For countries with large energy subsidies, the assumption of zero primary expenditure elasticity might not be appropriate, since a large fraction of government spending is reduced in the downward phase of the business cycle. In this case, the assumption implies an underestimation of automatic stabilizers and an overestimation of fiscal impulses.
    Statistical Appendix

    The IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) countries and territories comprise Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, the West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen.

    The following statistical appendix tables contain data for 30 MCD countries. Afghanistan, Iraq, and Turkmenistan are included in the tables, but excluded from the country grouping averages in all the tables except Tables 2, 4, and 1317. Data revisions reflect changes in methodology and/or revisions provided by country authorities.

    The data relate to the calendar year, with the following exceptions: (1) for Qatar, fiscal data are on a fiscal year (April/March) basis; and (2) for Afghanistan, Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan, all macroeconomic accounts data are on a fiscal year basis. For Egypt and Pakistan, the data for each year (e.g., 2004) refer to the fiscal year (July/June) ending in June of that year (e.g., June 2004). For Afghanistan and Iran, data for each year refer to the fiscal year (March 21/March 20) starting in March of that year. Data in Table 5 relate to the calendar year for all countries, except for Iran, which shows the Islamic year.

    In Tables 3, 9, and 10, “oil” includes gas, which is also an important resource in several countries.

    REO aggregates are constructed using a variety of weights as appropriate to the series:

    • Country group composites for the growth rates of monetary aggregates and exchange rates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (both GDP and exchange rates are averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of MCD or group GDP.

    • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy (Tables 1, 3, 5, and 812), whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total MCD or group GDP.

    • Composites relating to the external economy (Tables 16 and 18) are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in U.S. dollars.

    Tables 2, 4, 1315, and 17 are sums of the individual country data.

    Table 1.Real GDP Growth(Annual change; percent)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP5.05.85.86.04.82.24.0
    Oil exporters5.56.05.56.04.61.44.1
    Algeria4.35.12.03.03.02.13.7
    Bahrain5.67.96.78.16.13.03.7
    Iran5.74.75.87.82.51.52.2
    Iraq−0.76.21.59.54.35.8
    Kuwait13.310.65.12.56.3−1.63.2
    Libya3.110.36.77.53.41.85.2
    Oman3.24.96.07.77.84.13.8
    Qatar8.99.215.015.316.411.518.5
    Saudi Arabia3.75.63.23.34.4−0.94.0
    Sudan6.46.311.310.26.84.05.5
    United Arab Emirates7.78.29.46.37.4−0.22.4
    Yemen4.35.63.23.33.64.27.3
    Oil importers4.25.46.35.95.03.63.8
    Afghanistan12.016.18.212.13.415.78.6
    Djibouti2.33.24.85.15.85.15.4
    Egypt3.94.56.87.17.24.74.5
    Jordan5.68.18.08.97.93.04.0
    Lebanon4.22.50.67.58.57.04.0
    Mauritania3.35.411.41.02.22.34.7
    Morocco4.73.07.82.75.65.03.2
    Pakistan4.37.76.15.62.02.03.0
    Syria3.34.55.14.25.23.04.2
    Tunisia4.64.15.36.34.63.04.0
    CCA9.011.212.912.06.61.55.1
    Armenia10.613.913.213.76.8−15.61.2
    Azerbaijan8.324.330.523.411.67.57.4
    Georgia5.89.69.412.32.1−4.02.0
    Kazakhstan10.49.710.78.93.2−2.02.0
    Kyrgyz Republic4.9−0.23.18.57.61.53.0
    Tajikistan9.76.77.07.87.92.03.0
    Turkmenistan17.313.011.411.610.54.015.3
    Uzbekistan4.87.07.39.59.07.07.0
    Memorandum
    GCC5.86.95.55.06.40.75.2
    Maghreb4.35.24.84.13.92.93.9
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
    Table 2.Nominal GDP(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP917138916461911241321772481
    Oil exporters580102912321431183415651813
    Algeria63.8102.7116.8135.3159.7134.8154.8
    Bahrain9.113.515.818.421.219.421.6
    Iran124.7188.0222.1285.9335.2331.8358.9
    Iraq31.449.362.491.570.183.6
    Kuwait43.680.8101.6111.8158.1114.9135.4
    Libya31.144.056.571.789.960.674.7
    Oman21.030.936.841.659.952.359.7
    Qatar22.042.556.971.0102.392.5128.2
    Saudi Arabia205.3315.8356.6384.4469.4379.5442.8
    Sudan16.027.436.446.558.054.365.0
    United Arab Emirates82.2135.2164.2180.2262.1228.6256.2
    Yemen11.216.719.121.726.926.232.0
    Oil importers291360414480578612668
    Afghanistan4.66.57.79.711.713.315.4
    Djibouti0.60.70.80.81.01.11.2
    Egypt88.489.8107.4130.3162.6188.0208.5
    Jordan9.712.614.817.021.222.624.4
    Lebanon18.821.922.425.029.332.735.2
    Mauritania1.21.92.72.83.23.23.4
    Morocco44.459.565.675.288.990.898.3
    Pakistan80.1109.6127.5143.2164.6166.5178.7
    Syria22.028.633.540.655.054.461.3
    Tunisia22.729.131.135.640.839.642.0
    CCA65118160211264227260
    Armenia2.64.96.49.211.98.78.2
    Azerbaijan6.613.221.031.346.442.551.9
    Georgia3.86.47.810.212.911.010.8
    Kazakhstan27.857.181.0104.8135.6107.0120.7
    Kyrgyz Republic1.72.52.83.85.04.74.8
    Tajikistan1.42.32.83.75.14.64.8
    Turkmenistan9.317.221.426.019.018.724.9
    Uzbekistan11.414.317.022.327.930.334.2
    Memorandum
    GCC38361973280710738871044
    Maghreb163237273321382329373
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
    Table 3.Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth(Annual change; percent)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    Non-oil GDP
    Oil exporters5.76.77.17.75.43.23.9
    Algeria4.84.75.66.36.15.75.5
    Bahrain7.111.68.19.26.93.54.2
    Iran6.05.36.28.63.02.02.4
    Iraq12.07.5−2.05.44.04.5
    Kuwait11.610.07.06.37.91.24.1
    Libya0.215.810.714.88.06.07.0
    Oman7.67.311.312.68.03.44.2
    Qatar9.413.119.914.514.59.09.1
    Saudi Arabia3.75.25.14.64.33.34.2
    Sudan4.77.09.77.58.54.13.9
    Syria6.67.56.95.86.03.55.8
    United Arab Emirates9.210.810.49.18.61.12.5
    Yemen4.96.54.75.34.84.14.4
    Memorandum
    GCC5.77.57.77.06.63.24.4
    Oil GDP
    Oil exporters6.23.32.31.91.5−3.54.4
    Algeria3.85.8−2.5−0.9−0.9−2.10.1
    Bahrain0.5−8.8−1.01.11.20.10.1
    Iran3.5−0.42.71.7−2.0−3.20.0
    Iraq−8.15.34.012.34.66.7
    Kuwait17.111.42.9−2.34.2−5.42.0
    Libya5.37.24.32.80.0−1.53.7
    Oman−2.01.1−3.0−1.87.25.52.8
    Qatar8.66.010.716.218.213.726.9
    Saudi Arabia3.96.2−0.80.54.8−10.33.6
    Sudan59.7−0.226.533.0−4.43.018.0
    Syria−6.4−8.6−4.1−5.0−0.1−0.1−7.1
    United Arab Emirates4.41.66.5−1.63.6−4.51.8
    Yemen1.1−0.8−8.3−13.1−8.15.840.5
    Memorandum
    GCC5.45.51.60.95.8−5.25.5
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
    Table 4.Crude Oil Production and Exports(Millions of barrels per day)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    Production
    Oil exporters21.826.126.426.126.925.726.4
    Algeria1.01.41.41.41.41.31.3
    Bahrain0.20.20.20.20.20.20.2
    Iran3.64.04.04.14.03.93.9
    Iraq1.92.02.02.32.42.6
    Kuwait2.02.62.62.62.72.52.6
    Libya1.41.71.81.81.81.81.9
    Oman0.90.80.70.70.80.80.8
    Qatar0.70.80.80.80.90.80.9
    Saudi Arabia8.19.49.28.89.38.38.6
    Sudan0.20.30.40.50.50.50.6
    Syria0.50.40.40.40.40.40.3
    United Arab Emirates2.22.42.62.52.62.52.5
    Yemen0.40.40.40.30.30.30.3
    Memorandum
    GCC13.916.016.115.716.315.115.6
    Exports1
    Oil exporters14.915.615.815.916.615.516.2
    Algeria0.61.00.90.90.80.80.8
    Bahrain0.20.20.10.10.10.20.2
    Iran2.32.42.42.52.42.22.2
    Iraq1.41.41.61.81.92.1
    Kuwait1.21.71.71.61.71.61.6
    Libya1.11.31.41.51.41.41.4
    Oman0.80.70.60.60.60.60.6
    Qatar0.70.70.70.80.80.70.8
    Saudi Arabia6.27.27.07.07.36.56.7
    Sudan0.20.20.20.40.40.40.5
    Syria0.30.20.20.20.10.10.1
    United Arab Emirates2.02.22.42.32.42.32.4
    Yemen0.30.30.30.20.20.20.2
    Memorandum
    GCC11.112.612.712.413.011.912.3
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    Excluding exports of refined oil products.

    Table 5.Consumer Price Inflation(Year average; percent)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP5.06.26.98.915.67.06.6
    Oil exporters5.86.56.89.915.45.36.2
    Algeria2.41.62.53.64.54.63.4
    Bahrain−1.82.62.03.33.53.02.5
    Iran14.210.411.918.425.412.010.0
    Iraq16.437.053.230.82.76.96.0
    Kuwait1.24.13.15.510.54.64.4
    Libya−4.52.91.46.210.45.04.5
    Oman−0.31.93.45.912.63.33.0
    Qatar2.58.811.813.815.00.04.0
    Saudi Arabia−0.20.62.34.19.94.54.0
    Sudan7.58.57.28.014.311.09.0
    United Arab Emirates3.06.29.311.112.32.53.3
    Yemen11.99.910.87.919.08.48.9
    Oil importers3.65.77.16.915.910.17.2
    Afghanistan9.512.77.28.630.5−7.66.2
    Djibouti1.83.13.55.012.05.55.0
    Egypt4.74.97.69.518.312.38.2
    Jordan1.93.56.35.414.90.24.0
    Lebanon0.8−0.75.64.110.82.53.5
    Mauritania7.112.16.27.37.34.95.8
    Morocco1.61.03.32.03.92.82.8
    Pakistan4.29.17.97.620.313.99.4
    Syria1.87.210.44.715.27.56.0
    Tunisia2.72.04.53.15.03.53.4
    CCA9.98.19.211.416.56.56.4
    Armenia3.00.62.94.49.03.03.2
    Azerbaijan3.09.78.416.620.82.25.3
    Georgia5.08.39.29.210.01.23.0
    Kazakhstan8.27.68.610.817.27.56.6
    Kyrgyz Republic7.04.35.610.224.58.06.7
    Tajikistan21.47.310.013.220.48.010.9
    Turkmenistan8.010.78.26.314.50.43.5
    Uzbekistan19.510.014.212.312.712.59.5
    Memorandum
    GCC0.62.64.36.310.83.73.8
    Maghreb1.21.82.93.65.44.13.5
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
    Table 6.Broad Money Growth(Annual change; percent)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP14.919.421.724.218.710.610.6
    Oil exporters16.021.624.927.120.011.010.4
    Algeria15.411.718.624.216.012.910.2
    Bahrain8.122.014.940.818.42.712.3
    Iran30.133.639.228.616.317.012.4
    Iraq34.637.335.412.315.2
    Kuwait8.812.321.719.315.613.37.9
    Libya7.010.616.040.147.816.018.0
    Oman5.421.424.937.223.18.87.3
    Qatar15.544.638.039.519.78.815.0
    Saudi Arabia10.611.619.319.617.68.48.8
    Sudan30.044.727.410.316.320.018.0
    United Arab Emirates17.133.823.241.727.33.56.1
    Yemen20.713.727.716.813.79.415.0
    Oil importers12.714.413.616.214.89.311.1
    Afghanistan34.318.022.314.464.9−5.222.7
    Djibouti11.211.310.29.620.67.79.1
    Egypt13.213.613.517.116.88.912.2
    Jordan9.417.014.110.617.35.78.2
    Lebanon110.23.56.410.915.515.010.0
    Mauritania23.314.615.718.913.91.99.0
    Morocco9.114.017.216.110.96.66.0
    Pakistan14.319.314.919.315.39.613.0
    Syria17.811.89.212.412.511.612.5
    Tunisia9.311.011.412.514.410.910.6
    CCA38.030.165.343.536.411.019.8
    Armenia21.927.832.942.32.413.012.5
    Azerbaijan30.122.186.472.444.05.015.0
    Georgia28.226.439.349.67.0−2.015.0
    Kazakhstan43.626.378.125.935.413.925.6
    Kyrgyz Republic24.69.951.633.312.67.812.0
    Tajikistan51.630.263.478.86.310.920.5
    Turkmenistan33.327.955.972.262.8−4.48.1
    Uzbekistan40.555.537.846.935.627.017.1
    Memorandum
    GCC11.619.321.827.220.07.98.6
    Maghreb10.912.116.823.621.211.810.9
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    Broad money is defined to include non-resident deposits (M5).

    Table 7.Central Government Fiscal Balance(Percent of GDP)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP0.96.26.64.97.3−0.81.2
    Oil exporters3.912.312.810.014.22.05.2
    Algeria5.611.913.64.511.4−8.2−2.5
    Bahrain4.07.64.73.28.0−4.7−0.7
    Iran2.11.70.02.7−1.10.80.5
    Iraq16.514.28.81.5−25.4−8.8
    Kuwait23.842.935.440.226.924.424.4
    Libya9.229.431.425.524.610.616.3
    Oman7.612.113.811.222.64.18.3
    Qatar8.69.79.112.812.29.013.0
    Saudi Arabia0.918.421.012.333.01.26.7
    Sudan−0.3−2.4−4.3−5.4−1.4−3.8−3.0
    United Arab Emirates23.520.028.425.221.74.012.7
    Yemen10.4−1.81.2−7.2−4.5−7.0−5.2
    Oil importers−4.6−5.4−5.1−4.9−5.8−5.8−5.9
    Afghanistan−1.51.0−2.9−1.8−3.7−2.1−1.6
    Djibouti−2.20.2−2.5−2.61.3−1.8−1.7
    Egypt1−6.0−8.4−9.2−7.5−7.8−7.8−9.1
    Jordan−2.8−5.0−3.6−5.8−5.7−6.5−6.1
    Lebanon−17.0−8.4−10.4−10.8−9.8−10.6−10.1
    Mauritania3−7.2−7.135.9−1.8−7.5−1.7−1.4
    Morocco−4.5−4.8−1.40.61.8−2.3−2.2
    Pakistan1−2.9−3.0−3.7−4.0−7.3−4.9−4.2
    Syria1−1.6−4.5−1.2−3.0−3.2−4.6−3.6
    Tunisia−3.2−3.0−2.9−2.8−0.8−3.6−3.6
    CCA0.12.94.23.16.20.43.6
    Armenia−2.7−2.0−2.1−2.2−1.3−7.5−5.9
    Azerbaijan−0.22.6−0.22.820.86.314.9
    Georgia1−1.0−1.6−3.0−4.7−6.3−9.4−7.3
    Kazakhstan11.75.87.24.71.1−1.9−0.4
    Kyrgyz Republic1−6.0−3.6−2.1−0.30.0−3.8−6.3
    Tajikistan−3.1−2.91.7−6.2−6.1−6.7−6.4
    Turkmenistan11.10.85.33.911.39.39.4
    Uzbekistan1−1.01.25.25.110.52.05.3
    Memorandum
    GCC5.020.622.417.627.45.310.4
    Maghreb2.28.110.55.89.1−3.00.4
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    General government.

    Consolidated accounts of the federal government, and the emirates Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah.

    Includes oil revenue transferred to the oil fund.

    Table 8.Central Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants(Percent of GDP)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP28.634.035.334.336.130.630.9
    Oil exporters32.641.242.340.743.235.536.7
    Algeria36.340.943.039.647.036.737.9
    Bahrain31.632.230.428.933.425.528.4
    Iran23.130.329.930.925.126.126.6
    Iraq179.468.271.578.664.665.1
    Kuwait62.271.167.371.060.063.657.3
    Libya45.762.962.460.864.065.864.5
    Oman46.548.048.846.750.737.339.7
    Qatar39.942.541.545.637.938.838.4
    Saudi Arabia35.348.050.844.762.641.244.3
    Sudan13.923.020.520.021.314.717.0
    United Arab Emirates234.241.049.650.446.934.237.8
    Yemen132.434.538.232.836.526.226.9
    Oil importers21.320.622.322.422.721.720.4
    Afghanistan4.36.47.56.96.97.78.2
    Djibouti25.530.931.130.228.828.828.1
    Egypt126.024.328.227.227.626.622.7
    Jordan25.028.229.729.726.426.226.2
    Lebanon20.522.522.123.023.525.823.8
    Mauritania326.724.529.525.625.325.325.5
    Morocco22.423.525.127.429.525.125.0
    Pakistan113.913.814.115.014.614.114.4
    Syria128.024.025.522.720.921.621.5
    Tunisia24.023.623.423.826.223.823.3
    CCA24.626.427.328.633.631.333.1
    Armenia15.217.417.519.319.620.020.5
    Azerbaijan24.025.028.029.952.146.251.4
    Georgia1417.123.525.528.727.526.625.4
    Kazakhstan123.928.127.528.827.825.226.6
    Kyrgyz Republic120.623.725.628.128.522.823.8
    Tajikistan15.919.318.920.520.517.517.5
    Turkmenistan121.420.520.217.323.625.023.9
    Uzbekistan133.730.434.135.441.539.640.2
    Memorandum
    GCC39.349.151.548.756.141.943.5
    Maghreb32.437.338.537.541.936.336.6
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    General government.

    Consolidated accounts of the federal government, and the emirates Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah.

    Includes oil revenue transferred to the oil fund.

    Revised for 2002–04 to include extrabudgetary revenues.

    Table 9.Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance(Percent of non-oil GDP)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    Oil exporters−32.5−38.5−39.5−40.9−43.4−40.4−39.8
    Algeria−30.9−34.7−36.0−45.6−47.2−48.3−44.2
    Bahrain−29.1−28.7−28.5−28.7−33.9−34.2−33.8
    Iran−17.1−28.0−28.2−26.2−22.5−16.7−18.5
    Iraq1−143.5−88.1−114.3−170.8−145.7−125.1
    Kuwait−40.5−15.9−30.3−30.4−55.1−54.3−49.1
    Libya−65.2−130.4−135.3−136.0−165.8−131.8−124.5
    Oman−56.2−58.5−54.5−47.7−42.8−41.2−41.5
    Qatar−45.0−50.3−41.3−33.5−24.6−24.7−20.9
    Saudi Arabia−46.9−50.9−52.7−59.0−60.8−64.4−65.4
    Sudan−7.7−18.8−18.5−20.9−20.1−12.1−13.7
    United Arab Emirates2−30.4−17.0−15.0−15.2−28.4−31.2−25.6
    Yemen1−33.7−43.6−42.6−43.1−46.3−29.5−31.2
    Memorandum
    GCC−43.9−41.0−42.4−44.7−49.8−51.7−49.9
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    General government.

    Consolidated accounts of the federal government, and the emirates Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah.

    Table 10.Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue(Percent of non-oil GDP)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    Oil exporters13.315.616.617.017.015.716.0
    Algeria17.017.418.417.118.118.118.2
    Bahrain11.49.79.07.16.55.35.4
    Iran9.511.712.412.511.914.514.0
    Iraq17.36.39.214.79.89.2
    Kuwait31.848.347.041.229.921.220.0
    Libya20.820.025.229.333.541.040.1
    Oman14.212.812.817.515.511.311.4
    Qatar29.530.934.641.842.439.946.2
    Saudi Arabia10.811.212.112.316.910.410.1
    Sudan7.911.211.310.39.08.710.1
    United Arab Emirates213.516.118.022.115.211.912.3
    Yemen113.112.814.314.812.412.414.5
    Memorandum
    GCC15.118.119.120.020.014.715.5
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    General government.

    Consolidated accounts of the federal government, and the emirates Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah.

    Table 11.Central Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending(Percent of GDP)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP28.128.129.029.729.031.629.9
    Oil exporters28.728.929.530.829.033.631.6
    Algeria130.829.029.435.135.645.040.4
    Bahrain28.425.526.126.225.730.729.6
    Iran21.028.629.828.326.225.326.1
    Iraq2100.866.566.478.290.474.2
    Kuwait38.328.331.930.833.139.232.9
    Libya36.533.531.035.339.355.248.2
    Oman38.935.234.837.628.133.131.4
    Qatar31.332.832.432.825.729.825.4
    Saudi Arabia34.429.629.832.429.640.037.6
    Sudan14.125.425.226.023.218.820.6
    United Arab Emirates330.721.021.225.225.130.225.1
    Yemen232.536.837.440.341.234.632.6
    Oil importers26.926.528.227.729.028.126.9
    Afghanistan12.816.619.619.919.421.820.7
    Djibouti33.736.937.437.740.637.935.4
    Egypt232.833.237.835.335.535.232.5
    Jordan35.038.236.438.336.935.534.8
    Lebanon37.730.935.535.334.236.734.2
    Mauritania37.633.728.529.733.229.430.0
    Morocco427.128.726.927.229.127.927.6
    Pakistan218.117.218.419.322.219.319.3
    Syria229.628.526.625.724.226.225.2
    Tunisia27.426.826.526.727.327.527.1
    CCA24.823.823.325.827.731.529.9
    Armenia19.820.520.623.222.531.528.5
    Azerbaijan524.322.727.427.431.139.936.4
    Georgia218.726.029.734.037.039.134.2
    Kazakhstan222.222.320.224.226.827.027.0
    Kyrgyz Republic227.628.128.931.029.632.632.6
    Tajikistan219.223.021.928.628.229.528.8
    Turkmenistan220.319.714.913.412.315.714.5
    Uzbekistan235.529.529.230.531.237.735.0
    Memorandum
    GCC34.328.529.131.228.836.633.1
    Maghreb30.329.428.631.933.339.436.3
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    Including special accounts.

    General government.

    Consolidated accounts of the federal government, and the emirates Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah.

    Net lending includes balance on special treasury accounts.

    Expenditures do not include statistical discrepancy.

    Table 12.Total Government Debt(Percent of GDP)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP62.946.740.935.831.932.331.0
    Oil exporters48.027.022.417.914.415.914.3
    Algeria53.416.023.812.57.28.48.2
    Bahrain32.528.723.619.315.224.224.9
    Iran23.423.719.717.915.515.513.9
    Iraq1361.3205.8169.8108.3133.741.4
    Kuwait27.911.88.36.95.36.95.9
    Libya27.81.00.90.00.00.00.0
    Oman20.09.68.86.14.34.43.4
    Qatar46.119.313.29.48.412.69.4
    Saudi Arabia85.038.927.318.513.414.512.5
    Sudan153.6106.789.382.369.781.374.1
    United Arab Emirates25.79.210.011.28.910.29.4
    Yemen157.743.840.840.436.444.540.9
    Oil importers90.184.075.669.365.063.062.1
    Afghanistan
    Djibouti68.267.663.358.249.847.344.7
    Egypt197.4112.898.887.176.573.873.9
    Jordan97.684.077.474.262.364.765.4
    Lebanon162.8176.0179.9167.8160.2150.8134.6
    Mauritania3227.7208.6110.5112.693.795.794.0
    Morocco65.963.158.153.547.346.646.0
    Pakistan178.562.056.454.658.455.956.9
    Syria1121.456.150.740.530.132.031.9
    Tunisia161.058.153.750.047.548.648.8
    CCA33.117.913.911.411.013.813.9
    Armenia44.024.418.716.115.937.444.1
    Azerbaijan22.413.310.29.17.310.59.9
    Georgia160.635.728.621.327.637.746.5
    Kazakhstan117.98.16.75.86.68.88.9
    Kyrgyz Republic1107.385.972.556.848.653.453.6
    Tajikistan76.341.634.534.930.141.144.7
    Turkmenistan122.45.43.32.43.22.91.9
    Uzbekistan146.628.221.315.813.111.29.1
    Memorandum
    GCC58.727.519.914.410.712.310.6
    Maghreb55.733.434.227.423.223.923.6
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    General government.

    Consolidated accounts of the federal government, and the emirates Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah.

    Includes oil revenue transferred to the oil fund.

    Table 13.Exports of Goods and Services(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP373.9726.3877.51020.41351.6972.51156.5
    Oil exporters299.5614.5747.1867.81158.3799.4975.1
    Algeria24.548.857.363.582.650.061.2
    Bahrain7.713.315.517.221.115.618.0
    Iran35.770.882.8104.7105.884.491.9
    Iraq23.530.338.763.538.047.6
    Kuwait23.051.766.973.399.166.882.5
    Libya15.031.940.248.063.138.849.5
    Oman12.319.622.926.339.728.133.5
    Qatar14.228.739.351.072.160.291.0
    Saudi Arabia92.9192.3225.6249.6323.7201.6251.6
    Sudan2.45.06.09.313.07.511.6
    United Arab Emirates64.0122.0152.5178.4264.9201.9228.0
    Yemen4.26.87.97.89.76.48.7
    Oil importers74.4111.8130.4152.6193.3173.1181.3
    Afghanistan1.71.91.92.02.42.52.6
    Djibouti0.20.30.30.30.40.50.6
    Egypt17.928.033.939.553.347.046.3
    Jordan4.56.68.19.212.411.412.6
    Lebanon7.911.313.716.022.624.126.1
    Mauritania0.40.71.51.51.81.61.7
    Morocco12.918.821.727.332.825.128.1
    Pakistan11.917.820.321.424.022.922.9
    Syria7.111.913.115.618.917.618.9
    Tunisia10.314.515.819.924.720.221.5
    CCA27.554.875.6100.8142.7103.3131.5
    Armenia0.71.41.51.81.71.31.4
    Azerbaijan2.98.314.022.532.122.530.4
    Georgia1.22.22.63.23.72.93.3
    Kazakhstan14.030.541.651.976.448.761.6
    Kyrgyz Republic0.71.11.52.23.02.42.7
    Tajikistan0.90.60.70.80.90.60.7
    Turkmenistan3.35.37.59.512.313.018.4
    Uzbekistan3.75.46.38.912.511.913.0
    Memorandum
    GCC214.2427.6522.7595.8820.5574.3704.6
    Maghreb63.1114.8136.5160.2205.1135.8162.1
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
    Table 14.Imports of Goods and Services(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP304.1513.4614.1762.41007.0935.4995.9
    Oil exporters213.1371.6447.1561.4745.1700.1751.9
    Algeria15.224.625.533.347.547.850.4
    Bahrain6.010.211.312.315.712.314.0
    Iran31.555.063.371.784.874.580.0
    Iraq24.923.730.250.055.456.7
    Kuwait14.722.825.831.235.433.436.6
    Libya7.913.515.920.425.426.929.1
    Oman8.211.213.819.226.821.723.3
    Qatar6.012.621.827.139.744.653.0
    Saudi Arabia58.589.1115.3147.1178.8169.3183.9
    Sudan3.27.710.011.012.59.510.6
    United Arab Emirates53.193.9112.9148.5217.4196.9205.6
    Yemen4.06.07.89.411.07.88.8
    Oil importers91.0141.8167.0201.0261.9235.3244.0
    Afghanistan4.46.87.48.49.49.89.9
    Djibouti0.30.40.50.60.80.70.9
    Egypt21.430.238.245.263.159.958.5
    Jordan6.911.913.215.719.217.618.9
    Lebanon12.214.916.720.628.129.431.0
    Mauritania0.71.80.41.92.52.12.3
    Morocco14.822.826.134.645.636.239.6
    Pakistan13.525.633.235.345.338.137.2
    Syria7.312.914.718.021.720.322.3
    Tunisia11.114.616.420.626.021.323.2
    CCA27.448.960.882.6100.288.098.2
    Armenia1.22.12.53.64.73.63.7
    Azerbaijan3.77.08.19.411.512.115.3
    Georgia1.73.34.45.97.55.56.0
    Kazakhstan12.725.532.944.949.540.143.6
    Kyrgyz Republic0.81.42.33.24.73.84.1
    Tajikistan1.01.21.62.63.72.82.9
    Turkmenistan3.03.93.64.97.89.110.6
    Uzbekistan3.34.55.48.210.811.011.9
    Memorandum
    GCC146.4239.8300.9385.5513.8478.2516.3
    Maghreb49.877.384.4110.8147.1134.3144.7
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
    Table 15.Current Account Balance(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP64.6219.2281.2281.4355.824.8141.6
    Oil exporters65.0223.9287.9293.2384.352.5171.4
    Algeria8.121.229.030.637.13.711.3
    Bahrain0.31.52.22.92.30.71.3
    Iran4.816.620.434.122.510.012.9
    Iraq1.98.06.312.2−19.9−12.7
    Kuwait11.034.350.650.070.633.747.8
    Libya5.817.125.229.136.610.117.9
    Oman1.65.25.73.45.5−0.22.9
    Qatar5.214.116.121.628.610.032.4
    Saudi Arabia23.290.199.193.5134.215.450.7
    Sudan−1.4−3.0−5.5−5.8−5.2−6.1−5.9
    United Arab Emirates8.024.337.129.041.1−3.613.4
    Yemen0.60.60.2−1.5−1.2−1.4−0.7
    Oil importers−0.4−4.7−6.7−11.8−28.5−27.7−29.8
    Afghanistan−0.4−0.2−0.40.1−0.2−0.1−0.1
    Djibouti0.00.0−0.1−0.2−0.4−0.2−0.2
    Egypt1.02.91.82.50.9−4.4−5.9
    Jordan0.4−2.2−1.6−2.9−2.4−2.3−2.1
    Lebanon−3.0−2.9−1.2−1.7−3.4−3.7−3.7
    Mauritania−0.2−0.90.0−0.3−0.5−0.3−0.6
    Morocco1.01.11.4−0.1−4.8−5.0−4.7
    Pakistan1.8−1.5−5.0−6.9−13.7−8.6−8.6
    Syria−0.3−0.6−0.9−1.4−2.2−1.7−2.7
    Tunisia−0.8−0.3−0.6−0.9−1.7−1.5−1.2
    CCA−1.30.35.23.525.47.822.0
    Armenia−0.2−0.1−0.1−0.6−1.4−1.2−1.1
    Azerbaijan−1.10.23.79.016.58.312.0
    Georgia−0.3−0.7−1.2−2.0−2.9−1.8−1.9
    Kazakhstan−0.3−1.1−2.0−8.27.0−2.14.7
    Kyrgyz Republic0.00.1−0.10.0−0.4−0.4−0.6
    Tajikistan0.0−0.1−0.1−0.3−0.4−0.6−0.6
    Turkmenistan0.30.93.44.03.63.37.2
    Uzbekistan0.31.11.61.63.62.22.3
    Memorandum
    GCC49.2169.5210.7200.4282.356.0148.6
    Maghreb13.938.254.958.466.67.022.8
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
    Table 16.Current Account Balance(Percent of GDP)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP8.415.817.114.714.71.15.7
    Oil exporters11.721.823.420.520.93.49.5
    Algeria12.720.624.822.623.22.77.3
    Bahrain3.811.013.815.810.63.76.2
    Iran4.58.89.211.96.73.03.6
    Iraq6.116.310.113.3−28.4−15.2
    Kuwait24.842.549.844.744.729.435.3
    Libya17.338.944.640.740.716.724.0
    Oman7.716.815.48.39.1−0.54.8
    Qatar24.033.228.330.428.010.825.3
    Saudi Arabia10.628.527.824.328.64.111.4
    Sudan−9.2−11.1−15.2−12.5−9.0−11.2−9.1
    United Arab Emirates9.918.022.616.115.7−1.65.2
    Yemen5.63.81.1−7.0−4.3−5.2−2.3
    Oil importers0.4−1.3−1.6−2.5−4.9−4.5−4.5
    Afghanistan−8.5−2.5−4.90.9−1.6−0.9−0.9
    Djibouti−2.3−3.2−14.7−25.6−39.2−17.1−17.5
    Egypt1.23.21.61.90.5−2.4−2.8
    Jordan3.9−17.4−10.8−17.2−11.3−10.0−8.8
    Lebanon−15.9−13.4−5.3−6.8−11.6−11.3−10.5
    Mauritania−13.2−47.2−1.3−11.4−15.7−9.0−16.2
    Morocco2.31.82.2−0.1−5.4−5.5−4.7
    Pakistan2.2−1.4−3.9−4.8−8.3−5.1−4.8
    Syria−1.2−2.2−2.8−3.3−4.0−3.2−4.3
    Tunisia−3.7−1.0−2.0−2.5−4.2−3.8−2.9
    CCA−1.90.33.21.79.63.48.5
    Armenia−7.5−1.0−1.8−6.4−11.5−13.7−13.7
    Azerbaijan−14.91.317.628.835.519.623.1
    Georgia−7.4−11.1−15.1−19.7−22.7−16.3−17.6
    Kazakhstan−1.3−1.8−2.5−7.85.1−2.03.9
    Kyrgyz Republic−0.62.8−3.1−0.2−8.2−7.8−12.4
    Tajikistan−3.1−2.7−2.8−8.6−7.9−13.7−13.3
    Turkmenistan4.05.115.715.518.717.829.1
    Uzbekistan3.07.79.17.312.87.26.7
    Memorandum
    GCC12.427.428.824.826.36.314.2
    Maghreb8.416.120.118.217.42.16.1
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
    Table 17.Gross Official Reserves(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP216.7439.8602.7849.71023.21070.51191.3
    Oil exporters159.6355.8504.9735.5900.6943.71055.4
    Algeria25.856.277.8110.2143.1149.0159.7
    Bahrain1.41.92.74.13.84.15.7
    Iran21.746.860.582.978.083.492.1
    Iraq6.112.020.031.550.244.240.5
    Kuwait7.98.111.815.917.816.818.4
    Libya16.840.360.180.397.1102.5115.3
    Oman3.14.45.09.511.410.311.3
    Qatar2.04.65.49.89.810.212.6
    Saudi Arabia157.5153.2225.2305.3441.9479.8540.8
    Sudan0.31.71.71.42.01.01.5
    United Arab Emirates215.421.328.077.938.135.951.5
    Yemen4.05.36.87.07.36.55.8
    Oil importers57.184.097.8114.2122.6126.7136.0
    Afghanistan0.91.72.02.83.53.33.8
    Djibouti0.10.10.10.10.20.20.3
    Egypt14.619.322.828.534.531.231.2
    Jordan3.74.76.26.97.79.59.5
    Lebanon7.19.611.411.518.824.927.9
    Mauritania0.00.10.20.20.20.30.4
    Morocco10.616.120.224.022.020.119.8
    Pakistan5.49.810.814.38.69.113.5
    Syria12.418.217.217.918.118.418.6
    Tunisia2.64.46.88.09.09.711.0
    CCA10.117.437.247.056.967.489.5
    Armenia0.40.71.11.71.41.91.9
    Azerbaijan0.81.22.54.36.55.35.4
    Georgia0.20.50.91.41.51.92.2
    Kazakhstan4.47.119.117.619.924.335.7
    Kyrgyz Republic0.30.60.81.21.21.61.6
    Tajikistan0.10.10.10.10.20.50.5
    Turkmenistan2.34.58.113.216.720.828.7
    Uzbekistan1.52.94.77.59.511.113.5
    Memorandum
    GCC87.3193.4278.1422.4522.9557.1640.3
    Maghreb55.9117.0165.1222.7271.5281.5306.2
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency gross foreign assets.

    Central bank only. Excludes overseas assets of sovereign wealth funds.

    Table 18.Total Gross External Debt1(Percent of GDP)
    Average
    2000–04
    2005200620072008Proj.
    2009
    Proj.
    2010
    MENAP39.834.032.434.827.030.025.4
    Oil exporters35.029.929.134.325.229.123.2
    Algeria37.516.74.83.82.72.72.1
    Bahrain48.943.353.4139.5158.0180.5153.0
    Iran10.513.210.49.86.95.34.3
    Iraq351.6201.0165.3104.5128.736.9
    Kuwait26.320.426.023.516.923.520.3
    Libya18.512.79.97.86.29.27.5
    Oman25.412.214.616.715.017.115.2
    Qatar68.648.152.466.359.267.761.4
    Saudi Arabia12.29.410.818.716.619.618.0
    Sudan140.998.678.168.558.067.661.1
    United Arab Emirates23.630.350.274.033.138.035.6
    Yemen45.930.928.726.921.923.620.8
    Oil importers53.245.742.136.232.532.531.4
    Afghanistan14.0184.0155.020.819.410.69.8
    Djibouti58.562.056.863.659.260.563.7
    Egypt32.532.228.823.020.816.814.6
    Jordan276.356.549.343.624.323.721.1
    Lebanon158.8185.7198.8194.0186.7186.1177.7
    Mauritania233.7132.994.196.159.957.261.6
    Morocco38.524.223.923.720.621.921.8
    Pakistan41.631.128.027.027.029.932.1
    Syria79.923.419.214.510.411.711.3
    Tunisia367.262.159.656.650.552.851.4
    CCA52.348.054.853.348.157.255.1
    Armenia40.622.418.915.713.231.138.7
    Azerbaijan419.712.59.48.16.59.18.4
    Georgia50.132.734.635.341.554.964.0
    Kazakhstan72.476.091.492.479.5100.798.6
    Kyrgyz Republic111.485.577.760.245.852.052.6
    Tajikistan97.851.542.740.947.058.664.7
    Turkmenistan22.35.43.32.43.22.91.9
    Uzbekistan38.628.922.116.713.413.211.4
    Memorandum
    GCC21.019.026.138.627.433.330.6
    Maghreb39.424.317.616.013.315.814.4
    Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    Nominal GDP is converted to U.S. dollars using period average exchange rate.

    Excludes deposits of non-residents held in the banking system.

    Includes bank deposits of nonresidents.

    Public and publicly guaranteed debt, as private debt data are not reliable.

    Ghosh and others (2009, p.6). “Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries,” IMF Staff Position Note 09/08.

    Other considerations could also be important to assess fiscal space. Important macroeconomic considerations include inflation rates, the current account position, and international reserves coverage. Microeconomic considerations include the quality of spending, and the capacity to spend. There could also be institutional constraints, such as fiscal responsibility laws, which reduce the room to maneuver.

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