Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Valerio Crispolti, Era Dabla-Norris, Jun Kim, Kazuko Shirono, and George Tsibouris
Published Date:
March 2013
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    Index

    [Page numbers followed by f, n or t refer to figures, footnotes or tables, respectively.]

    A

    Absorption

    • crisis definition, 27–28

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • loss regression, 31t, 33, 60, 62t

    • reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 14, 18f, 31-32, 33, 37, 60, 62t

    • role of reserve holdings, 37

    • See also Crisis

    Advanced and emerging markets

    • cost of holding reserves, 25

    • reserve accumulation trends, 20, 20f

    • shock risk in, 3, 25

    Agriculture sector, 3, 4f

    Aid. See Foreign direct investment and aid

    B

    Broad money coverage, 20–21, 23

    C

    Climatic shocks

    • definition, 38

    • geographical distribution, 9

    • in island economies, 12

    • outcomes, 9, 12, 12f, 42t, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating, 54–55f

    • risk, 8

    Commodity-exporting and -importing countries

    • effectiveness of reserves in mediating shock effects in, 16, 17–19, 18f, 43, 43f, 54–55f

    • reserve adequacy in, 34

    • reserve coverage trends, 23, 23t

    • shock outcomes in, 12, 1, 9, 9n, 13, 37, 47–48t, 50–51f, 52–53f, 57t

    Consumption

    • crisis conditions, 28, 28t

    • effects of recent global financial crisis, 16–19, 17f, 18f

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • loss regression, 62t

    • outcomes of shocks in LICs, 6, 6f, 9, 12, 13f, 16f, 50–51f

    • probability, 61t

    • reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 14, 14f, 16, 18f, 54–55f

    Cost of external shocks

    • absorption losses, 31t, 31-32, 33, 37, 60, 62t

    • event study analysis, 7–8, 7n, 8f

    • modeling methodology, 2, 25–28

    • output losses, 5, 6f

    • reserve depletion, 9, 15f

    • structural characteristics of country and, 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 11f, 12, 15f, 16, 16f, 37

    • by type of shock, 12f, 37, 41f, 42f, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • welfare losses, 6

    • See also Growth outcomes of shocks

    Country Policy and Institutional Assessment, 28, 28n.

    • See also Policy and institutional quality

    Crisis

    • definition, 27–28

    • determinants of absorption loss severity, 31–32

    • growth rate outcomes, 28t

    • probability factors, 28–30, 29t, 30f, 30t

    E

    East Asia, 9

    Eastern Europe, 9

    Emerging markets. See Advanced

    • and emerging markets

    Event study analysis, 7–8, 38

    • robustness, 41–43, 60, 60t

    Exchange rate policies

    • consumption drop probability and, 61t

    • crisis probability and, 28–30, 30f, 30t

    • crisis severity and, 31–32, 31t

    • data sources, 8n, 38, 58

    • reserve accumulation trends and, 21, 22f, 23

    • reserve adequacy and, 2, 16, 21, 34, 35f, 36, 54f

    • shock effects and, 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16, 37, 47t, 50f, 52f, 54f

    External-demand shocks

    • data sources, 38

    • definition, 7

    • outcomes, 9, 12, 12f, 13f, 16f, 41f, 42f, 42t, 43f, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating, 13, 14, 14f, 15f, 54–55f

    • size and severity, 27f

    External shocks, generally

    • data sources, 38, 58

    • definition, 7, 7f, 7n, 26–27, 41

    • forms of, 3, 3t, 7, 26, 27f. See also specific form

    • frequency, 3, 3t, 8–9, 9t, 10t, 42t

    • geographic distribution, 9, 10t

    • probability modeling, 25–26

    • size and severity, 9, 9t, 10t, 27f, 42t

    • trends, 4–5

    • vulnerability of low-income countries, 1, 3–5, 37

    • See also Costs of external shocks

    F

    Foreign direct investment and aid

    • absorption loss mitigation in shocks from, 31, 31t

    • data sources, 38

    • frequency of shocks to, 8, 9

    • geographic distribution of shocks to, 9

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • outcomes of shocks in, 9, 12, 12f, 42t, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks to, 13, 14, 54–55f

    • size and severity of shocks, 9, 27f

    • vulnerability of LICs to shocks in, 25

    Fragile states, reserve adequacy in, 2, 33, 34, 36

    G

    Global financial crisis (2007–10), 4, 7, 16–19

    Globalization, 4–5, 5f

    Government debt

    • cost of shock and, 37

    • crisis probability and, 28, 29, 30t

    • data sources, 40

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    Growth outcomes of shocks

    • crisis probability, 28

    • data sources, 38–40, 58

    • effects of recent global financial crisis, 16–19, 17f, 18f

    • event study analysis, 7–8, 7n

    • loss regression, 62–63t

    • macroeconomic volatility and, 6, 6f, 9–13, 11f, 37

    • mechanism, 5–6

    • positive shocks, 4, 5

    • reserve coverage effects, 13–14, 14f, 18f

    • by shock type, 12f, 50–55f

    • structural characteristics of country and, 12, 13f, 16f

    H

    Heavily-indebted LICs

    • definition, 9n

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 16, 17–19, 18f, 55f

    • shock outcomes, 49t, 51f, 53f, 58t

    I

    International Monetary Fund programs

    • consumption drop probability and, 61t

    • crisis probability in countries with, 28–29, 30f, 30t

    • data sources, 38, 60

    • reserve adequacy in countries with, 34

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in countries with, 55f

    • SDR allocations, 17, 36, 56t

    • shock outcomes in countries with, 2, 8n, 9, 12, 13, 16, 17–19, 18f, 49t, 51f, 53f, 58t

    International reserves

    • costs of recent global financial crisis, 16–17, 17f

    • data sources, 58

    • effects of shocks on, 9, 15f, 16, 16f

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • nonprecautionary role, 1n

    • opportunity cost of, 6, 21–23, 25

    • rationale for holding, 1, 6, 13, 25, 37

    • as self-insurance, 26

    • See also Reserve adequacy

    Investment

    • effects of shocks, 5–6

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • in mediating shock effects, 14

    • reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 17, 18f

    • See also Foreign direct investment and aid

    Island countries

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 16, 17, 18f, 55f

    • shock outcomes in, 1, 9, 12, 13, 48t, 51f, 53f, 57t

    L

    Latin America, 9

    LICs. See Low income countries

    Low income countries (LICs)

    • cost of reserve holding, 25

    • definition, 1

    • effects of global financial crisis, 16–19

    • global integration, 4–5, 5f

    • list of, 38–40t

    • macroeconomic volatility, 6, 6f, 44–46t

    • reserve coverage trends, 20–21, 23–24, 23t, 24f

    • structural characteristics of, 38–40t

    • vulnerability to external shocks, 1, 2, 3–5, 25, 37

    • See also Cost of external shocks; Heavily-indebted LICs

    M

    Macroeconomic functioning

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • shock impacts, 6, 6f, 9–13, 11f, 37, 43f, 47–49t, 57–58t

    Market concentration, 4f

    Middle East, 9

    N

    Natural disasters, 3

    Net benefit of holding reserves, 25–26

    O

    Oil-exporting countries

    • list of, 38–40t

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 54f

    • reserve coverage trends, 21, 22f

    • shock outcomes in, 48t, 50f, 52f, 57t

    P

    Policy and institutional quality

    • crisis probability and, 28, 29, 30t

    • data sources, 58

    • reserve adequacy and, 34–35, 35f

    Political shocks. See Socio-political shocks

    Positive shocks

    • government spending and, 4

    • growth outcomes, 5

    Pre-shock trends, 8n, 37

    R

    Reserve adequacy

    • assessment methodology, 1–2, 7–8, 25–28, 33–34, 38–40

    • consumption drop probability and, 61t

    • cost of holding reserves in assessment of, 33, 34

    • crisis probability and, 28–30, 29t, 30f, 30t

    • crisis severity and, 31, 31t

    • demand modeling for calculation of, 21–23

    • effectiveness in mediating shock outcomes, 13–14, 14f, 54–55f, 57–58t

    • effects of global financial crisis mediated by, 17

    • import coverage, 1, 2, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20–21, 34, 37

    • recent trends, 20–21, 20f, 22f, 23–24, 23t

    • regional comparison, 23–24, 24f

    • research findings, 1, 2, 34–36, 37

    • structural characteristics of economy as factor in, 17–19, 18f, 34–36, 43f

    • See also International reserves, generally

    S

    Shocks. See Cost of external shocks; External shocks, generally

    Socio-political shocks, 3, 6

    Sub-Saharan Africa, 5, 9, 21

    T

    Terms-of-trade shocks

    • absorption loss mitigation, 31, 31t

    • data sources, 38

    • definition, 7

    • frequency, 3, 8–9

    • global distribution, 4f

    • outcomes, 9, 11f, 12, 12f, 16f, 37, 41f, 42f, 42t, 43f, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating, 14, 14f, 15f, 16, 54–55f

    • size and severity, 27, 27f

    Trade

    • export concentration, 4f

    • import coverage of reserves, 1, 2

    • outcomes of recent global financial crisis in external balances, 16

    • sources of vulnerability to shocks, 3–4, 4f

    • See also Commodity-exporting and -importing countries; External demand shocks; Terms-of-trade shocks

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