Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Hans Schmitt
Published Date:
April 1981
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    Bibliography

      Balassa, B. (1979), “Portugal in Face of the Common Market,”2.a Conferencia Internacional sobre Economia Portuguesa (Fundacao Calouste Gulbenkian and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Lisbon, 1980), Vol. II.

      Barbosa, M.P., and L.M.P.Beleza (1979), “External Disequilibrium in Portugal: 1975–78,”2.a Conferencia Internacional sobre Economia Portuguesa (Fundagao Calouste Gulbenkian and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Lisbon, 1980), Vol. I.

      Bruno, M. (1979), “Stabilization and Stagflation in a Semi-Industrialized Economy,” inR.Dornbusch and J.A.Frenkel, eds.,International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence (Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1979).

      Cardoso, M.T. (1979), “A Politica Monetariae a Balanga de Pagamentos—1976/1978” [Monetary Policy and the Balance of Payments—1976/1978], 2.a Conferencia Internacional sobre Economia Portuguesa (Fundagao Calouste Gulbenkian and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Lisbon, 1980), Vol. I.

      Cavaco-Silva, A.A. (1979), “A Politica Orcamental Portuguesa em 1974/78” [Portugal’s Budget Policy in 1974/78], 2.a Conferencia Internacional sobre Economia Portuguesa (Fundagao Calouste Gulbenkian and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Lisbon, 1980), Vol. I.

      Dornbusch, R. (1979), “Portugal’s Crawling Peg,” prepared for Conference on the Crawling Peg: Past Performance and Future Prospects (Rio de Janeiro, October 1979).

      Dornbusch, R. and L.Taylor (1977), Economic Prospects and Policy Options in Portugal: Summer 1977 (Bank of Portugal, Lisbon, September 1977).

      Dornbusch, R., R.S.Eckaus, L.Taylor (1976), Analysis and Projection of Macroeconomic Conditions in Portugal, Report from an OECD-Sponsored Mission to Portugal, December 15–20, 1975 (Bank of Portugal, Lisbon, 1976).

      Eckaus, R.S. (1977), “Is the IMF Guilty of Malpractice?” The Institutional Investor, September 1977.

      Eckaus, R.S. and L.Taylor (1979), Macroeconomic Situation and Policies in Portugal (Bank of Portugal, Lisbon, summer 1979).

      Fry, M.J. (1977), “Financial Instruments and Markets,”Conferencia Internacional sobre Economia Portuguesa (The German Marshall Fund of the United States and Fundagao Calouste Gulbenkian, Lisbon, 1977), Vol. I.

      Fry, M.J. (1979), “Money, Interest and Growth,” 2a. Conferencia Internacional sobre Economia Portuguesa (Fundagao Calouste Gulbenkian and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Lisbon, 1980), Vol. II.

      International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1977), Portugal: An Economy in Transition (Washington, D.C., March 16, 1977).

      International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1977), (1978), Portugal: An Updating Report on the Portuguese Economy (Washington, D.C., September 7, 1978).

      Krugman, P., and J.B.Macedo (1979), “The Economic Consequences of the April 25 Revolution” (Yale University Economic Growth Center, New Haven, November 1979).

      Krugman, P., and L.Taylor (1978), “Contractionary Effects of Devaluation,”Journal of International Economics, Vol. 8 (1978).

      Macedo, J.B. (1979), “Portugal and Europe: The Channels of Structural Interdependence” (Johns Hopkins University Center for Foreign Policy Research, Washington, D.C., May 2, 1979).

      McKinnon, R. (1979), “Comment” (to M. Bruno, cited above), in R.Dornbusch and J.A.Frenkel, eds., International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence (Johns Hopkins University Press, Balti-more, 1979).

      Sadove, R., and S.A.Chaudry (1979), “Portugal: Priorities for Public Sector Investment,”2,a Conferencia Internacional sobre Economia Portuguesa (Fundagao Calouste Gulbenkian and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Lisbon, 1980), Vol. I.

      Silva Lopes, J. (1980), “Portugal and the EEC: The Application for Membership,” Workshop on Southern Europe and the Enlargement of the EEC (Lisbon, October1980).

    Appendix Statistical Tables
    Table 1.Portugal: Changes in Employment and Wages, 1968 and 1973–79(End of period)
    19681973197419751976197719781979
    Thousands
    Population9,0688,5648,6508,9479,1239,1689,2049,338
    Civilian labor force3,5253,5463,8533,9574,0964,1074,1574,251
    Employment3,2083,3033,7673,7393,8203,7813,8093,906
    Unemployment186222276326348344
    Unemployment rate22.25.66.77.98.48.1
    Annual percentage changes
    Earnings in manufacturing16.445.432.918.715.315.320.3
    Consumer prices excluding rents10.527.920.518.227.322.124.2
    Real earnings in manufacturing5.313.710.30.4–9 .4–5 .6–3 .1
    Memorandum itemsThousands per annum
    Net immigration3–119.9–70.3–44.9–33.2–28.8–24.5–24.4
    Settlers returning from Africa99.4339.6
    Military manpower95.0108.065.070.053.054.0
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    Underestimates unemployment in 1974–76 among settlers back from Africa.

    As per cent of civilian labor force.

    Excluding settlers returning from Africa.

    Table 2.Portugal: National Product Accounts, 1968–79
    Per Cent of TotalReal Annual Per centage Change
    196819781968–73197419751976197719781979
    Agriculture120.813.8–0.8–2.1–1.9–1.5–10.04.09.0
    Mining0.70.65.014.82.9–14.315.31.210.0
    Manufacturing32.535.59.63.1–9.74.59.43.34.7
    Electricity, gas, and water2.52.810.413.93.20.320.06.56.5
    Construction5.15.59.23.5–15.85.011.02.4–2.2
    Private services28.930.08.4–4.5–5.37.75.82.64.0
    GDP at factor cost less public administration90.588.27.50.5–6.04.65.42.74.4
    Public administration9.511.89.515.030.918.67.06.06.0
    GDP at factor cost100.0100.07.61.8–2.76.15.63.14.6
    Memorandum items
    Industrial production index6.22.3–4.83.213.26.87.2
    Real GDP per employed worker7.0–1.1–2.03.86.72.32.0
    Real GDP per head of population8.80.8–5.94.05.12.73.1
    Billion escudos at current prices
    GDP at factor cost308.6347.4434.9565.8713.7922.1
    GDP at marke t prices338.4376.2467.6624.2780.3997.6
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    Includes forestry and fisheries.

    Table 3.Portugal: National Expenditure Accounts, 1968–79
    Per Cent of TotalReal Annual Percentage Change
    196819781968–73197419751976197719781979
    Private consumption74.267.96.89.7–0.92.00.60.41.7
    Public consumption13.813.26.617.36.67.09.36.05.2
    Investment17.226.313.2–8.5–45.332.829.5–4.0–1.0
    Fixed capital17.220.411.27.011.31.012.04.00.3
    Stockbuilding15.91.9–0.8–8.55.23.7
    Domestic expenditure105.2107.48.16.3–8.98.27.00.11.6
    Exports of goods and services24.725.86.5–15.7–15.65.914.628.0
    Imports of goods and services– 29.9–33.19.54.8–25.23.412.0–1.87.9
    Gross domestic product at market prices100.0100.07.41.1–4.36.95.33.34.8
    Memorandum items
    Partner countries’ real GDP24.61.0–1.04.72.33.22.9
    Contributions to growth rate1
    Domestic expenditure9.96.9–10.28.08.10.21.7
    Stockbuilding1.90.88.55.23.7
    Foreign balance–3.5–5.85.9–1.1–2.93.13.1
    GDP deflator6.319.415.816.026.421.022.0
    Sources: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

    Change in constant prices over previous year’s GDP.

    Industrial countries trade weighted.

    Table 4.Portugal: Saving and Investment, 1968 and 1973–79(Per cent of GDP at market prices)
    19681973197419751976197719781979
    Investment19.926.324.916.420.825.423.322.4
    Gross fixed capital formation16.820.419.719.719.020.220.119.2
    Stockbuilding3.15.95.2–3.31.85.23.33.1
    Saving19.926.324.916.420.825.423.322.4
    External saving6.25.68.09.24.3–0.9
    Remittances from abroad (net)8.37.06.37.09.512.4
    Private domestic saving... 10.06.39.311.212.914.7
    Public sector saving2.93.20.4–2.5–2.8–2.0–3.4–3.8
    Memorandum items
    Wage bill as percentage of national income169.368.760.257.254.5
    Private saving as per cent of disposable income13.114.313.216.319.7
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    Including social security contributions.

    Table 5.Portugal: Public Sector Accounts, 1968 and 1973–79(National accounts basis; in billions of escudos)
    19681973197419751976197719781979
    Current receipts31.363.877.893.2131.4168.0212.2264.3
    Direct taxes13.228.836.147.160.780.9103.6124.0
    Indirect taxes15.630.437.041.861.779.397.5122.0
    Other2.54.64.74.39.07.811.118.3
    Current expenditure27.154.876.6102.5144.4180.6238.5302.2
    Goods and services19.637.149.158.066.190.2114.7147.6
    Subsidies2.02.97.67.517.120.930.946.5
    Transfers4.613.618.434.356.158.971.379.6
    Interest payments0.91.21.52.85.110.621.628.5
    Current balance4.29.01.2–9.3–13.0–12.6–26.3–37.9
    Capital receipts1.53.84.55.02.43.63.54.2
    Capital expenditures6.610.212.714.222.336.566.564.9
    Investments3.85.86.89.112.825.130.936.4
    Transfers1.02.53.46.17.78.711.710.5
    Net lending1.81.92.51.01.82.723.918.0
    Capital balance–5.1–6.4–8.2–9.2–19.9–32.9–63.0–60.7
    Overall balance–0.92.6–7.0–18.5–32.9–45.5–89.3–98.6
    Memorandum itemsRatios to GDP
    Current revenues22.022.723.024.828.326.927.226.9
    Current balance3.03.20.4–2.5–2.8–2.0–3.4–3.9
    Overall balance–0.61.4–2.1–4.9–7.1–7.3–11.5–10.0
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.
    Table 6.Portugal: Monetary Survey, 1973–79(Stocks in billions of escudos; end of period)
    1973197419751197511976197719781979
    Net foreign assets77.863.338.939.15.0–33.5–18.940.8
    Net domestic credit248.5303.0359.8406.6518.3702.6874.91,100.5
    Private sector2249.5293.8326.3365.9442.8579.3703.2852.2
    Public sector1.09.233.440.975.5123.3171.7248.4
    Percent of total–0.43.09.310.114.617.519.622.6
    Monetar y liabilities301.3342.3385.5394.9460.8567.4726.6991.8
    Money supply165.6182.5227.2227.7246.3274.8314.9396.5
    (Currency in circulation)(38.3)(69.7)(109.8)(111.7)(110.4)(113.3)(121.4)(142.1)
    (Demand deposits)(127.3)(112.8)(117.4)(116.0)(135.8)(161.2)(192.9)(254.4)
    Quasi-money135.7159.8158.2167.2214.5292.6411.7595.3
    Other items, net25.024.013.350.862.5101.6129.4149.5
    Memorandum items
    Percentage changes in
    Domestic credit expansion over initial money stock25.018.116.628.340.030.431.0
    Money stock over year earlier28.413.612.616.723.128.036.5
    Percentage change in income velocity3–4.5–2.27.87.70.1–2.8
    Level of real interest rates4–6.1–12.9–4.9–9.6–8.9–2.9–4.0
    Sources: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics; and data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    Change in series.

    Including uncollectible items.

    Annual averages on GDP at market prices.

    Annual averages on 6–12 months’ deposits.

    Table 7.Portugal: Monetary Base, 1975–79(Stocks in billions of escudos; end of period)
    19751976197719781979
    Base money130.8139.6147.3169.5223.1
    Currency in circulation111.7109.2113.3121.4142.2
    Reserve of other banks19.129.233.747.577.8
    Legal. . .. . .25.842.359.3
    Excess. . .7.85.218.5
    Other monetary liabilities1.30.30.63.1
    Financing165.4169.9202.2240.7288.6
    Net claims on abroad32.03.1–13.4–4.97.6
    Net credit to public sector33.859.5112.2158.5238.3
    Net credit to other banks186.199.792.473.824.4
    Net credit to nonbank public213.57.611.013.318.3
    Other items, net–34.6–30.8–54.9–71.2–65.5
    Memorandum itemsRatios
    Currency to deposits0.390.310.250.200.17
    Reserves to deposits0.070.080.070.080.09
    Money multiplier2.403.303.904.304.45
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    Excluding the Portuguese Finance Company (Sociedade Financeira Portuguesa).

    Including uncollectible items.

    Table 8.Portugal: Performance Criteria Under Stand-By Arrangement, 1977-March 1979
    197719781979
    Dec.Mar.JuneSept.Dec.Mar.
    Net domestic credit of the banking systemBillion escudos
    Ceiling1
    Excluding uncollectible debt651.22674.32698.8735.8792.9808.6
    Actual
    Excluding uncollectible debt645.7666.6705.5738.7784.6808.8
    Including uncollectible debt702.6734.2782.8821.5874.9910.2
    Banking system credit to the public sector
    Subceiling1123.32133.32137.3142.3160.3177.3
    Actual123.3132.7142.0156.6171.7188.6
    Net foreign liabilities of the banking system3Million U.S. dollars
    Ceiling11,21721,52121,7871,9572,1622,322
    Actual1,2431,6341,8211,5001,0861,011
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    Incorporating statistical adjustments authorized in January 1979.

    Presumed to have been actuals at the time the ceilings were fixed.

    With gold valued at SDR 35 perounce and excluding profits from sales of gold in 1977–78.

    Table 9.Portugal: Balance of Payments, 1973–79(In millions of U.S. dollars)
    1973197419751976197719781979
    Exports1,8432,2881,9361,8242,0012,3793,607
    Volume change in per cent115.96.812.64.85.912.028.6
    Price change in per cent110.833.02.710.25.26.516.2
    Imports2,7534,2773,6063,9254,5334,7876,194
    Volume change in per cent16.48.423.517.812.72.16.6
    Price change in per cent113.643.07.34.42.17.421.5
    Trade balance–910–1,989–1,670–2,101–2,532–2,408–2,587
    Per cent of GDP8.015.011.013.015.014.212.6
    Nonfactor services–74–1702082276518
    Investment income129–14–131–179–329–437
    Private transfers1,0971,1111,0379631,1341,6352,472
    Current balance341–823–817–1,24 9–1,495–826–34
    Per cent of GDP3.06.06.08.09.05.2
    Overall balance328–633–1,013–1,125–1,4301601,355
    Memorandum items
    Dollars received per tourist night97115108896789123
    Dollars received per migrant worker5645294464846178671,254
    Percentage change in export markets2.0–4.511.23.25.78.8
    Percentage change in relative unit labor cost17.927.35.4–3 .2–3 .28.4
    Percentage change in effective exchange rates1.7–1.4–2.3–7.7–20.9–19.6–15.0
    Terms of trade1 (1973 = 100)100948682858480
    Sources: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

    Customs basis.

    Table 10.Portugal: Exports by Destination, 1968 and 1973–79(In per cent of total)
    19681973197419751976197719781979
    European Communities4049485052525557
    Of which: United Kingdom2024232118181818
    Old escudo zone125151185765
    United States12101077776
    Japan12211111
    Planned economies of Eastern Europe and China1125432
    Oil exporting countries11122211
    Rest of world2122273028272728
    Memorandum item
    European Free Trade Association (excluding United Kingdom)1317141516151515
    Source: International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade

    Mainly the former African territories.

    Table 11.Portugal: Imports by Economic Category, 1974–79
    Share in Total ImportsAnnual Percentage Rates of Change in 1970 Prices
    1974197919751976197719781979
    Capital goods16.424.3–35.016.024.2–0.44.5
    Machinery and equipment13.617.0–35.014.922.11.98.2
    Transport equipment10.96.7–43.837.256.9–26.1–4.6
    Ships and aircraft1.90.5–32.9–14.1–70.849.9
    Intermediate goods54.546.8–22.521.820.15.2
    Primary products215.518.1–0.319.521.80.616.5
    Semifinished products39.028.7–30.722.820.3–4.71.3
    Fuels and lubricants12.418.5–7.56.7–1.510.615.2
    Consumer goods16.79.2–25.817.8–22.0–24.68.5
    Food6.62.9–25.228.0–21.1–36.020.3
    Other nondurable goods1.92.2–21.216.0–5.9–2.71.5
    Semidurable goods2.60.7–30.33.8–21.5–33.2–3.6
    Durable goods3.63.4–26.912.4–36.5–17.48.0
    Total398.198.2–22.319.213.6–2.66.7
    Total100.0100.0–23.517.812.7–2.06.5
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    Except ships and aircraft.

    Except diamonds.

    Except diamonds, ships, and aircraft.

    Table 12.Portugal: External Current Account Financing, 1973–79(In millions of U.S. dollars)
    1973197419751976197719781979
    Current account balance341–823–817–1,249–1,495–826–34
    Medium-term and long-term capital, net–142272–1072695758813
    Government–105–82–861176509351
    Private nonbank–37354–21–26–75214291
    Bank liabilities419026173
    Bank assets49–2
    Basic balance199–551–924–1,223–1,400–68779
    Residual flows129–82–8998–30228576
    Overall balance328–633–1,013–1,125–1,430–160–1,355
    Monetary movements–3286331,0131,1251,430–160–1,355
    Treasury–34629181363136
    Other banks6410153567201995
    Bank of Portugal3256151,052990876104–224
    (International Monetary Fund)(—)(—)(33)(179)(83)(–53)(–41)
    (Compensatory borrowing, net)(—)(—)(303)(665)(421)(197)(–274)
    (Gold sales)(—)(—)(—)(—)(534)(357)(—)
    (Direct intervention, net)(–325)(615)(716)(146)(–162)(–397)(68)
    (SDR allocation)(—)(—)(—)(—)(—)(—)(23)
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.
    Table 13.Portugal: Outstanding Compensatory Debt Incurred by Bank of Portugal, 1975–79(End of period)
    Outstanding Amounts
    Initial197519761977197819791979
    CreditorAmounts 1st half
    MillionsMillion U.S. dollars
    IMFSDR 245201.0298.0319.1306.9280.6
    Consortium of central banks165.0250.092.230.7
    Deutsche BundesbankUS$7575.075.0
    Netherlands BankUS$3535.035.015.86.8
    National Bank of BelgiumUS$2525.025.011.95.8
    Sveriges RiksbankUS$1515.015.07.22.6
    Norges BankUS$1515.07.23.6
    Austrian National BankUS$1515.015.07.23.6
    Danmarks National bankUS$1515.07.23.6
    Swiss National BankUS$5555.035.73.7
    Consortium of France and Switzerland40.032.228.6
    Bank of FranceUS$1515.07.23.6
    Swiss National BankUS$2525.025.025.0
    Consortium of US$750 million148.0661.3725.0754.2
    NorwayUS$103.010.010.010.0
    United StatesUS$300300.0300.0300.0
    VenezuelaSDR 1915.024.524.324.8
    Swiss National BankUS$3030.030.030.030.0
    United KingdomUS$2020.020.020.0
    Austrian National BankUS$1010.010.010.0
    Netherlandsf.5025.424.626.5
    Germany , Fed. Rep. ofDM 420229.8227.3243.4
    SwedenSKr 5011.611.712.0
    Japan¥ 19,80067.177.5
    Other300.0800.01,045.0819.6703.8582.1
    Swiss National BankUS$5050.050.050.0
    Deutsche BundesbankUS$250250.0250.0151.871.6
    Bank for International SettlementsUS$745250.0500.0745.0667.8632.2582.1
    Total300.01,166.01,681.01,924.41,795.01,616.7
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    Four other countries also participated in the discussions.

    Table 14.Portugal: Net Foreign Assets, 1968 and 1973–79(In millions of U.S. dollars)
    Stocks at End of PeriodTotalBank of Portugal1TreasuryOther Banks
    19681,5631,38730146
    19733,0122,78955168
    19742,3382,18447107
    19751,3241,15853113
    1976
    Mar.97473856180
    June51734046131
    Sept.49427345176
    Dec.2851309362
    1977
    Mar.–64–9199–72
    June–432–31379–198
    Sept.–710–43594–369
    Dec.–720–30792–505
    1978
    Mar.–954–363100–691
    June–1,012–492109–629
    Sept.–576–195209–590
    Dec.–249–103157–303
    1979
    Mar.–192–237140–95
    June–26–18512138
    Sept.87765416396
    Dec.1,112155291666
    Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.

    With gold stock valued at the official price of SDR 35 per ounce. Includes profits from sale of gold.

    Table 15.Portugal: Official International Reserves, 1968 and 1973–79(In millions of U.S. dollars; end of period)
    Gold1Foreign CurrencyReserve Position in FundSDRsTotal Gross Reserves
    1968856488191,363
    19731,1631,641.352,839
    19741,1931,125362,354
    19751,13639081,534
    19761,126166101,302
    1977
    Mar.1,11712861,251
    June1,1296881,205
    Sept.1,05015441,208
    Dec.1,02536151,391
    1978
    Mar.9992651,264
    June9612881,249
    Sept.9927991,791
    Dec.1,0098711,880
    1979
    Mar.996640191,655
    June1,00061951,624
    Sept.1,0201,07012,091
    Dec.1,02093011,951
    Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics

    Valued at SDR 35 per ounce.

    Occasional Papers of the International Monetary Fund
    • 1. International Capital Markets: Recent Developments and Short-Term Prospects, by a Staff Team Headed by R.C. Williams, Exchange and Trade Relations Department. 1980.

    • 2. Economic Stabilization and Growth in Portugal, by Hans O. Schmitt. 1981.

    • 3. External Indebtedness of Developing Countries, by a Staff Team Headed by Bahram Nowzad and Richard C. Williams. 1981.

    • 4. World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. 1981.

    • 5. Trade Policy Developments in Industrial Countries, by S.J. Anjaria, Z. Iqbal, L.L. Perez, and W.S. Tseng. 1981.

    • 6. The Multilateral System of Payments: Keynes, Convertibility, and the International Monetary Fund’s Articles of Agreement, by Joseph Gold. 1981.

    • 7. International Capital Markets: Recent Developments and Short-Term Prospects, 1981, by a Staff Team Headed by Richard C. Williams, with G.G. Johnson. 1981.

    • 8. Taxation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Part I: Tax Policy and Administration in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Carlos A. Aguirre, Peter S. Griffith, and M. Zuhtu Yucelik. Part II: A Statistical Evaluation of Taxation in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Vito Tanzi. 1981.

    • 9. World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. 1982.

    • 10. International Comparisons of Government Expenditure, by Alan A. Tait and Peter S. Heller. 1982.

    • 11. Payments Arrangements and the Expansion of Trade in Eastern and Southern Africa, by Shailendra J. Anjaria, Sena Eken, and John F. Laker. 1982.

    • 12. Effects of Slowdown in Industrial Countries on Growth in Non-Oil Developing Countries, by Morris Goldstein and Mohsin S. Khan. 1982.

    • 13. Currency Convertibility in the Economic Community of West African States, by John B. McLenaghan, Saleh M. Nsouli, and Klaus-Walter Riechel. 1982.

    • 14. International Capital Markets: Developments and Prospects, 1982, by a Staff Team Headed by Richard C. Williams, with G.G. Johnson. 1982.

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