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Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
January 1999
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    Annex Emerging Market Banking Systems

    The turbulence in international capital markets in the period beginning in August 1998 had a differentiated impact on various emerging market banking systems that reflects both the relative soundness of the different systems and the magnitude of the spillovers across regions. This annex reviews developments in the major emerging markets’ banking systems since midyear, with a focus on those systems where banking problems and vulnerabilities are considered to be significant by market participants and the major rating agencies.1

    Although the recent financial turbulence has not had a major impact in Asia, most banking systems in the region have experienced further deteriorations in asset quality as their economies have continued to weaken. Moreover, the slow progress in corporate restructuring has threatened to delay the final resolution of problems in the banking systems. In addition, the reduction in market interest rates has not been fully reflected in lending rates, and banks have continued to be cautious about extending new loans. It is now evident that the restructuring of the banking systems will take time to complete, but it is important in the interim not to take actions that could increase the ultimate restructuring costs that already amount to a large share of GDP in most affected countries (see Table A1). In this regard, measures that put pressures on banks to expand their lending—such as those that have been taken in China and Malaysia—create the risk that banks could further add to their stock of bad loans. Meanwhile, the operating environment for Latin American banks has deteriorated in the aftermath of the Russian crisis, following the drying up of external financing, increases in interest rates, and the associated slowdown in economic activity. Most banks in the region have suffered losses associated with their securities portfolios and are expecting a deterioration in their loan portfolios, but systemic risks continue to be relatively low. The impact of financial turbulence on most of eastern Europe’s banks has been relatively minor, since direct exposure to Russia and spillovers to the region have been limited. The restructuring of Russia’s banking system is a top priority of the government’s anticrisis plan, but the restructuring process is likely to face severe financing constraints.

    Table A1.Asia: Estimated Costs of Bank Restructuring1
    U.S. Dollar Equivalent2
    Local Currency Cost(billions of U.S. dollars)Percent of GDP
    Interest costs
    IndonesiaRp 40 trillion5.43.50
    KoreaW 8 trillion6.42.00
    ThailandB 143 billion4.03.00
    MalaysiaRM 3.5 billion0.91.25
    PhilippinesP 11.9 billion0.330.25–0.50
    Total17.0
    Total cost (stock of debt issued)
    IndonesiaRp 300 trillion4029.00
    Korea4W 74.7 trillion6017.50
    Thailand1,583 billion4332.00
    MalaysiaRM 48.4 billion1318.00
    PhilippinesP 110 billion34.00
    Total159

    IMF staff estimates as of November 30, 1998. The estimates do not necessarily reflect the assessments of the authorities. The numbers are highly tentative and depend on many factors, including the evolution of real interest rates. They include both budgetary and extrabudgetary costs and are intended to measure the up-front financing costs (that is, they do not include receipts from any eventual sale of problem assets).

    Converted at exchange rates on November 30.

    Assumes 10 percent interest rate.

    Includes asset swaps of public enterprise stocks (W 8.9 trillion).

    Asia

    As China has attempted to fend off the effects on its economy of the regional slowdown, the need to accelerate financial sector reform and address the vulnerabilities of its banking system has become a critical issue. At the beginning of 1998, the system of quotas that used to guide state-owned banks’ loan growth was abolished, in an attempt to strengthen the banks’ efforts to manage their problem loans and to induce them to become more commercially oriented.2 As a result, credit growth slowed in the first quarter of the year, prompting the government to declare that while banks were free to make their own decisions, they must bear in mind their duty to support the government’s objective of achieving 8 percent GDP growth in 1998. So far, the government has adopted a policy of gradually writing off bad loans accumulated in the past so as to achieve a “soft landing” in solving the bad-loan problem in tandem with the restructuring of state-owned enterprises. However, analysts worry that faster loan growth may cause problem loans to grow faster than the banks can write them off, deepening the banks’ problems of asset quality.

    Meanwhile, the authorities have moved decisively to deal with the weaknesses of China’s nonbank financial institutions. Spurred by the lessons from the Asian crisis, where nonbank financial institutions were often at the heart of the financial crises, in October the People’s Bank of China ordered the closure of Guandong International Trust and Investment Company (GITIC) and 12 credit cooperatives in Beihai. Other international trust and investment corporations—the so-called ITICs—have, like GITIC, taken on short-term borrowings to finance long-term infrastructure and industrial projects and may face similar problems. GITIC’s default on foreign obligations was interpreted by some market participants as a change in the rules of the game,3 and this prompted a number of foreign banks to retreat from lending to the other ITICs as well as to the “window” companies controlled by Chinese provincial governments and listed in Hong Kong SAR. Although the ITICs account for only 2 percent of total financial system assets in China, market participants worry that their difficulties may cause a credit squeeze, with repercussions for the whole economy. However, the closure of nonbank financial institutions may consolidate the strength and strategic importance of China’s banks—as depositors move their funds from the ITICs and credit cooperatives to the banking system—and would constitute a more desirable precedent than would comprehensive bailouts.

    The banking systems of the financial centers of Hong Kong SAR and Singapore were affected differently by the financial turmoil, but most banks’ strong capital positions and good profitability have given them enough cushion to absorb the expected increase in non performing loans. Problem loans of Hong Kong banks grew to above 3 percent of total assets in 1998.

    While some analysts expect the ratio to increase significantly, Hong Kong banks are well capitalized and prepared to absorb such losses. Nonperforming loans have risen to just over 5 percent for Singapore’s banks; although their regional exposures are high, their Basle risk-adjusted capital-to-asset ratios are between 15 and 20 percent.

    In Indonesia, the authorities have begun to restructure the severely damaged banking system4 through a mixture of bank closures, mergers, and takeovers. At the same time, efforts to recover liquidity credits extended to many banks earlier in the year have been stepped up. On August 21, 1998, the Indonesian authorities announced the resolution of the six large private banks taken over by the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency (IBRA) in April 1998. In addition, the authorities announced the merger of four of the seven state banks, with the new bank being placed under the management of a major international bank. Under threat of legal action, several former owners of failed banks pledged assets nominally worth around $16 billion to cover the obligations derived from the emergency assistance provided by the central bank. In an effort to avoid an asset “fire sale,” the government will hold the assets as collateral as the bankers pay their debts over the next four years. Meanwhile, negative margins between loan and deposit rates are increasing insolvencies in the banking system, and only a few banks with low ratios of loans to deposits are expected to survive in the current environment.

    Progress with corporate restructuring has been very slow, but a framework for the voluntary restructuring of corporate debt—the Jakarta Initiative—was announced on September 9, 1998, to complement the Indonesia Debt Restructuring Agency (INDRA) scheme and the newly amended bankruptcy law. The INDRA scheme provides exchange risk protection to private debtors who agree with their creditors to restructure their external debts while the Jakarta Initiative provides a set of principles to guide and streamline out-of-court corporate restructuring. The potential initiation of bankruptcy procedures provides an important incentive for the conclusion of restructuring agreements under the initiative. Although the government’s role is limited to facilitating negotiations among private parties, in circumstances where a debtor is not cooperating within the framework the principles recognize the authority of the public prosecutor to initiate bankruptcy procedures against a public company for reasons of public interest.

    Since mid-1998, with the asset quality of Korean banks continuing to deteriorate, the authorities accelerated the process of consolidation through a series of bank mergers. However, the lack of progress in corporate restructuring could delay any final resolution of the problems in the banking sector. The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) announced that problem loans—broadly defined to include loans classified as “precautionary”—amounted to about 22 percent of total loans in the financial sector as of end-June 1998. Of the eight major banks, four did not achieve the 8 percent minimum capital adequacy ratio at end-June, and other banks are also likely to face capital shortages following the tightening of regulations announced in the latest Letter of Intent to the IMF. Since June 1998, the FSC has ordered sound banks to take over five insolvent banks and forced a number of big banks to merge, all in return for the government’s promise to buy nonperforming loans of merged banks and supply funds for recapitalization.5 On September 3, the country’s largest chaebol announced plans to merge some of their operations, but these so-called “big deals” fell short of what had been expected, and their implementation has faced several problems. The lack of progress has prompted the government to set a deadline of December 15 for the chaebol to devise proposals for the comprehensive restructuring of their activities or face the prospect of forced closure of failing affiliates, the cutting off of credit lines, or both. The government has also asked banks to gradually reduce their exposures to any single entity from the current ceiling of 45 percent of total capital to 25 percent by 2002. Finally, the privatization of Korea First Bank and Seoul Bank is scheduled for January 1999, but foreign interest remains uncertain.

    The problems of the Malaysian banking system have intensified as economic conditions have deteriorated in 1998. Official estimates of nonperforming loans reached 17.8 percent of outstanding loans at end-September 1998, up from the 10.6 percent recorded at end-April. The authorities estimate that the financial system’s recapitalization requirements for 1998–99 will amount to around 11.8 percent of GDR The capital controls introduced in September have not had a major direct impact on Malaysian banks, other than the loss of some foreign exchange income and a higher cost of doing business, and the decline in domestic interest rates may have a positive impact on asset quality. Moreover, the forced repatriation of all ringgit held abroad, combined with the progressive lowering of statutory reserve requirements, has significantly expanded liquidity within the banking system. In addition, the relaxation of restrictions on lending to the property and equity sectors has been accompanied by increasing government pressure on the banks to increase their lending activities. If these policies result in a significant expansion of the banks’ loan book on the basis of noncommercial criteria, especially in the midst of a severe recession, there is clearly a risk of a further deterioration in asset quality.6

    The Malaysian authorities have taken several steps to shore up the banking system, but there are concerns among market participants that the decision to relax banks’ disclosure and provisioning requirements may conceal, rather than address, the banking system’s problems. In recent months, Danamodal Nasional, the government agency set up to recapitalize banks, has injected capital into several weak banks and finance companies, and the agency is well placed to encourage these institutions to merge and restructure. Danaharta, the agency set up in June 1998 to purchase nonperforming loans, also started operations in August 1998. Soon after the imposition of capital controls, the government reversed a recent central bank regulation requiring loans to be classified as nonperforming when three months in arrears—compared to six months previously—a move that constitutes a departure from international standards.7

    In Thailand, the banking system has continued to face severe difficulties. For the first half of the year, larger banks reported losses ranging from 10 to 30 percent of end-1997 equity, while most of the smaller banks reported losses exceeding 60 percent of equity. Nonperforming loans throughout the banking system have grown to an average of around 40 percent (for nonintervened banks). Market participants have expressed concern over the health of a number of medium-sized banks, accounting for roughly one-fourth of deposits. Responding to these difficulties, on August 14 the authorities announced a bank restructuring plan, which accelerated the consolidation of banks and finance companies, prepared for the privatization of intervened banks, and introduced bank capital support facilities for banks that either raise new private capital (the Tier-1 capital support scheme) or bring forward debt restructuring and new lending to the private sector (Tier-2 capital support).8 However, while the fear of ownership dilution and the requirement to bring forward Year 2000 provisioning rules have made banks reluctant to make use of the Tier-1 scheme, there is growing interest in the use of the Tier-2 capital support facilities. At the same time, the Bank of Thailand will continue to review banks’ capital adequacy and their adherence to best-practice provisioning requirements (which are being phased in); banks in need of additional capital will be required to sign detailed Memoranda of Understanding with the Bank of Thailand. Finally, the process of auctioning the assets of the closed 56 finance companies has proceeded according to plan, and is now entering its final stage, with the next major auction of $11 billion of assets scheduled for mid-December. This auction of business loans is crucial, not only for its size, but also for bringing back liquidity to the commercial real estate market and for helping to set new benchmark prices.

    Latin America

    Argentina’s banking system is well capitalized and is regarded by bank analysts as one of the strongest in the region, and it has been only modestly affected by the relatively small increase in interest rates that Argentina experienced during the recent financial turmoil. Nevertheless, banks have been affected by some losses in their fixed-income portfolios and slower loan growth. As a result, some asset quality deterioration is likely to have lowered the banks’ performance in the second half of 1998.9 Although two medium-sized banks experienced liquidity problems in October, and one of them was suspended, deposits in the banking system continued to grow. Moreover, the liquidity problems were limited and had no systemic implications. Some banks in Chile have experienced declines in profits in the third quarter of this year, but most Chilean banks are well reserved and continue to be viewed as having the best asset quality in the region: past-due loans increased from 0.97 percent of total loans in December 1997 to 1.19 percent in July 1998. Venezuelan banks have already shown the initial signs of a deterioration in asset quality as a result of lower oil prices, political uncertainty, and high interest rates; as a result, some banks have been downgraded by the major rating agencies. The ratio of nonperforming loans (including interest in arrears) to total loans rose from 3.7 percent in December 1997 to 7.7 percent in September 1998.

    Although the banking system in Brazil is highly capitalized, it has suffered from the extreme financial volatility of the past few months and will come under pressure as the government strives to fully regain the confidence of international investors. Rating agencies have expressed concerns that an extended period of low access to international capital markets could affect those large Brazilian banks that are more dependent on foreign funding. Also, while banks are unlikely to experience major losses on their securities portfolios—as domestic securities are now mostly floating-rate instruments, contrary to the October 1997 episode—credit risk has clearly increased. Although lending is a relatively small fraction of the banks’ assets,10 high real interest rates and a slowdown in economic activity have reduced loan growth and will likely reduce the credit quality of loan portfolios—especially in some of the less well-capitalized medium-sized and small banks—but systemic risk remains low.

    Mexican banks continue to struggle with asset quality problems, and market participants expect the operating environment to remain weak for at least one more year. Almost one-third of the assets of those banks participating in the loan purchase and capitalization scheme are in illiquid FOBAPROA securities that do not produce any cash flow or are linked to money market interest rates. Earnings in the second quarter were weak, in large part due to losses in securities portfolios, and analysts expect the weakness to continue in the second half of the year. Asset quality improved marginally in the second quarter, but market analysts expect a deterioration going into 1999.

    Eastern Europe and Russia

    Events in Russia have had a minor impact on most of eastern Europe’s banking systems—with an exception perhaps in the Czech Republic—as direct exposures are relatively small. Russian assets of regional banking systems are generally less than 2 percent of total assets, and are mostly trade-related rather than financial assets. Asset quality and capitalization have continued to improve in Poland and Hungary, despite the fact that loan growth has been rapid and the share of government loans in total assets has declined. In contrast, Czech banks have experienced a deterioration in credit quality during the recent economic recession. The three major Czech banks have recently been downgraded by a major rating agency on grounds of large exposures to a weak corporate sector and a deteriorating external environment. Market participants remain concerned that the banking sector may deteriorate further if an economic recovery does not occur.

    The banking system has been one of the main intermediaries of capital inflows in Turkey, and the recent financial turbulence is likely to increase the system’s vulnerability to market and credit risk. Private sector commercial banks11 have large net foreign exchange positions (amounting to $2.5 billion at mid-September 1998) and have relied on international funding to finance large holdings of high-yielding government securities.12 The banks have also financed their large operations in government securities mainly through repurchase agreements (repos), in part because of regulatory and tax incentives. The growing use of repos in 1997 and 1998 has increased the banks’ maturity mismatch as well as their off-balance-sheet exposure. Many of the private banks are owned by large corporate groups, and rating agencies worry that lending limits may be easily breached, increasing the credit risks suggested by a relatively low level of nonperforming loans (2.2 percent of total loans at end-June 1998).

    The developments of August 17, 1998 delivered a double blow to the Russian banking system, because the largest banks hold a large proportion of their total assets as government securities and because of the scale of their foreign currency liabilities—including those derived from forward foreign exchange contracts. In addition to the highly speculative activities in securities and foreign exchange markets, most Russian banks have close links with their business clients and the government. In particular, a large number of banks belong to the so-called financial and industrial groups (FIGs), which have large shareholdings and exposures to the industrial sector, high levels of connected lending, and rely on a few large corporate accounts for funding. Poor accounting rules, prudential regulation, and supervision further contributed to the weak financial condition of most banks, which brought about the collapse of the system in the aftermath of the ruble’s devaluation. Over the past three months, the Central Bank of Russia has granted liquidity support to many banks and more recently has submitted a bank restructuring program to the State Duma. The program recognizes that the recapitalization of the banking system is a top priority of the government anticrisis plan and would divide the banks into four groups: (1) financially sound banks (some 500 small and medium-sized banks with little exposure to GKOs—ruble-denominated discount instruments—and foreign exchange); (2) banks having positive equity capital but facing liquidity problems (some 400 regional banks with large branch networks); (3) large banks that are bankrupt but whose closure would have grave social and economic consequences; and (4) insolvent banks that are considered nonessential. The last group of banks will be liquidated, while the first will receive only temporary liquidity assistance. Banks in the second and third groups will receive central bank funds against controlling stakes in their equity and will be managed by external management teams that would have an option to buy a controlling stake. A key issue will be which banks will be listed in the third—rather than the fourth—category. Market participants consider that most of the large Moscow-based banks are likely to be included in the third group, although this strategy would face severe financing constraints as external financing for the banking system is unlikely to be forthcoming. Moreover, this strategy would make it difficult to address the severe governance problems currently embedded in the system.

    See the September 1998 International Capital Markets report for an analysis of the major Asian banking crises and a discussion of developments in the systemically important emerging markets’ banking systems in the period from July 1997 to June 1998. The analysis draws on publicly available material published by national authorities, banks, and rating agencies.

    China’s four state commercial banks account for two-thirds of total bank assets, and while their non performing loans are estimated at 20–25 percent on Chinese definitions, market participants believe them to be closer to 40 percent (see the September 1998 International Capital Markets report). The authorities have used a Y 270 billion (about 3 percent of GDP) bond issuance to recapitalize these banks.

    Some investors had interpreted previous statements of local government officials as implicit guarantees on debts that had been registered with the State Administration for Foreign Exchange Approval (SAFE). However, the “implicit guarantees” by local governments had not been authorized by the central government. Market participants expect further clarification of the authorities’ repayment policies.

    The authorities have recognized that the level of nonperforming loans exceeds 50 percent of the loans of the system, while private estimates range between 60 and 75 percent. Analysts estimate that most sectors of the banking system, public and private, are experiencing widespread insolvency, and the negative net worth of the system is estimated at around 30 percent of GDP.

    By mid-October, the Korea Asset Management Corporation had spent W 18 trillion purchasing nonperforming loans at an average discount of 45 percent. It is unclear whether realistic loan-recovery values are included in such discounts or whether these transactions will add to the increasing government support to the restructuring process.

    More recently, the authorities have recognized that the 8 percent minimum loan growth target would not be attainable and have estimated loan growth of 2–3 percent for 1998.

    The change in the three-month arrears standard has technically reduced the volume of the banks’ nonperforming loans from 17.8 percent to 12.4 percent as of end-September 1998.

    This plan has been complemented by additional efforts to speed restructuring of corporate debt, including improvements to the bankruptcy and foreclosure laws to encourage debtors to enter negotiations, development of a framework to guide restructuring (the Bangkok Approach), and removal of numerous tax impediments to corporate debt restructuring.

    Non performing loans in the overall banking system continued to fall in the first half of the year and were 9.7 percent of total loans at end-June. For the private banks, the nonperforming loan ratio—net of provisions—was 2.4 percent.

    The ratio of loans to total assets of the five largest banks was 28.8 percent at end-June 1998, even lower than the ratio evident before the Real Plan.

    State banks account for more than one-third of the system’s total assets and do a fair amount of subsidized lending to favored sectors.

    The foreign liabilities of private commercial banks were $12.5 billion at end-June 1998. International banks have long had an appetite for Turkish bank risk, in part because the country’s OECD membership implies lower risk weightings for such facilities.

    Statistical Appendix

    Eight statistical tables are included in this appendix. They focus on global developments and represent a subset of the traditional 46 Statistical Appendix tables in the World Economic Outlook. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available in mid-December 1998.

    Assumptions

    Key assumptions underlying the estimates for 1999 and beyond are:

    • Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period October 19–November 4, 1998, except that the bilateral exchange rates among the ERM currencies are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms. For 1999, these assumptions imply an average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rate of 1.407.

    • Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained.

    • It is assumed that the price of oil will average $14.51 a barrel in 1999 and remain unchanged in real terms thereafter.

    • With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 5 percent from 1999 onward.

    For a full description of World Economic Outlook data and conventions, as well as the classification of countries in the various groups presented in the following tables, see the October 1998 World Economic Outlook, pp. 158–68.

    List of Tables

    Table 1.World Output1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1980-891990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    World3.42.71.82.52.64.03.74.34.22.22.2
    Advanced economies2.92.91.22.91.23.22.63.23.22.01.6
    Major industrial countries2.72.50.81.81.12.92.13.03.02.11.5
    United States2.71.2-0.92.72.33.52.33.43.93.61.8
    Japan3.85.13.81.00.30.61.55.01.4-2.8-0.5
    Germany21.85.75.02.2-1.22.71.21.32.22.72.0
    France2.32.50.81.2-1.32.82.11.62.33.02.6
    Italy2.42.22.210.6-1.22.22.90.71.51.31.9
    United Kingdom2.40.6-1.50.12.34.42.82.63.52.60.9
    Canada2.90.3-1.90.92.34.72.61.23.82.82.2
    Other advanced economies52.04.02.92.52.04.64.43.74.21.52.0
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries2.72.50.81.70.92.92.23.03.02.31.7
    European Union2.33.11.71.1-0.53.02.41.82.72.82.2
    Euro area2.33.72.41.3-1.02.72.31.62.52.82.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies7.87.37.95.86.37.67.36.36.0-2.60.5
    Developing countries4.34.05.06.66.56.86.06.55.72.83.5
    Regional groups
    Africa2.52.31.80.30.72.13.05.83.23.63.8
    Asia7.05.66.69.59.39.69.08.26.62.64.3
    Middle East and Europe2.25.63.56.53.90.73.84.74.53.32.9
    Western Hemisphere2.21.03.83.33.95.21.23.55.12.51.5
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel0.84.94.86.31.50.22.63.53.21.71.7
    Nonfuel5.03.95.06.77.17.66.46.96.02.93.7
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries0.47.25.08.44.01.71.23.02.61.61.3
    Net debtor countries4.53.95.06.66.67.06.26.65.82.83.6
    Official financing3.53.83.93.02.53.33.85.73.04.43.7
    Private financing4.63.66.07.87.97.86.36.76.43.93.9
    Diversified financing4.54.72.94.94.76.46.86.95.3-0.82.6
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1993–972.30.72.32.12.63.24.13.84.02.12.1
    Other net debtor countries5.65.36.18.38.08.36.97.66.43.04.0
    Countries in transition2.8-3.5-7.6-14.0-7.3-7.1-1.5-1.01.9-0.8-1.9
    Central and eastern Europe-10.0-8.7-3.8-2.81.61.62.82.52.2
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine-10.7-5.20.23.35.53.73.22.93.2
    Russia-5.4-19.4-10.4-11.64.8-5.00.7-5.7-8.3
    Transcaucasus and central Asia-5.7-18.5-10.4-11.4-4.7-3.71.0-4.2-6.1
    Memorandum
    Median growth rate
    Advanced economies3.03.22.21.41.33.62.93.53.52.92.2
    Developing countries3.23.12.93.62.93.54.44.54.44.14.4
    Countries in transition3.5-2.9-10.8-11.4-8.1-1.81.83.03.44.23.7
    Output per capita
    Advanced economies2.21.90.41.20.62.51.92.52.61.41.1
    Developing countries1.92.13.04.04.54.94.34.04.21.11.9
    Countries in transition2.1-4.1-7.8-14.1-7.4-7.1-1.50.81.9-0.8-2.0
    World growth based on market exchange rates3.02.20.50.60.92.82.63.53.31.81.6
    Value of world output in billions of U.S. dollars
    At market exchange rates22,49223,64323,57624,18225,96025,96029,54529,43729,24931,030
    At purchasing power parities25,52426,98628,43529,88031,713333,63935,75938,04740,68543,606

    Real GDR For classification of countries in groups shown in this table, and conventions used to calculate the group composites and multiyear averages, see the introduction to World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Table 2.Advanced Economies: Employment and Unemployment1(Percent)
    Average2
    1980–891990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Growth in employment
    Advanced economies1.21.60.1-0.1-0.11.11.11.01.30.90.6
    Major industrial countries1.11.5-0.11.00.8-0.71.30.80.4
    United Slates1.71.3-0.90.71.52.31.51.42.21.40.8
    Japan1.12.01.91.10.20.10.10.51.1-0.7-0.5
    Germany30.43.01.7-1.9-1.8-0.7-0.4-1.3-1.30.20.1
    France0.11.10.2-0.6-1.2-0.11.10.62.11.3
    Italy0.41.40.4-1.1-4.1-1.7-0.50.40.20.4
    United Kingdom0.60.4-3.1-2.4-0.81.80.91.21.60.9-0.2
    Canada2.00.6-1.9-0.61.42.11.61.31.92.51.3
    Other advanced economies1.32.00.7-0.2-0.51.32.11.81.61.11.3
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries1.11.6-0.1-0.3-0.30.91.00.91.31.00.6
    European Union0.41.70.1-1.6-2.0-0.20.60.50.61.30.7
    Euro area0.42.11.0-1.4-2.3-0.70.50.30.41.30.9
    Newly industrialized Asian economies2.52.32.31.91.52.82.22.01.9-0.81.3
    Unemployment rate
    Advanced economies6.95.96.57.37.77.67.27.37.06.97.0
    Major industrial countries6.95.86.57.27.37.26.86.96.76.56.7
    United States47.35.66.87.56.96.15.65.44.94.54.8
    Japan2.52.12.12.22.52.93.13.33.44.24.9
    Germany37.06.25.57.78.89.69.410.411.510.910.5
    France9.08.99.410.311.612.311.312.412.711.711.3
    Italy59.811.010.910.71211.312.012.112.312.212.0
    United Kingdom9.05.88.09.710.39.38.07.35.54.75.1
    Canada9.38.110.411.311.210.49.59.79.28.48.4
    Other advanced economies7.16.26.67.58.88.98.48.38.08.38.2
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries7.26.16.97.78.18.07.77.77.47.07.1
    European Union9.08.08.59.811.011.511.111.211.010.29.9
    Euro area9.38.88.710.011.312.211.912.312.411.611.2
    Newly industrialized Asian economies3.22.12.02.12.32.12.12.22.65.56.2

    For classification of industrial countries in groups shown in this table, and conventions used to calculate the composites, see the introduction to World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    For employment, compound annual rate of change; for unemployment rate, arithmetic average.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

    New series starting in 1993, reflecting revisions in the labor force surveys and the definition of unemployment to bring data in line with those of other industrial countries.

    Table 3.Inflation1(Percent)
    Average
    1980–891990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    GDP deflator
    Advanced economies6.14.65.23.32.82.22.21.71.61.41.4
    Major industrial countries5.34.25.03.02.51.91.91.51.41.01.2
    United States5.34.34.02.82.62.42.31.91.91.11.8
    Japan2.22.32.71.70.60.2-0.6-1.40.10.3-0.9
    Germany23.03.112.05.64.02.42.21.00.61.01.3
    France7.13.13.32.12.51.51.61.20.90.91.3
    Italy11.77.67.74.74.43.55.15.02.62.62.1
    United Kingdom7.57.66.74.02.81.52.53.32.72.12.2
    Canada5.83.12.71.31.51.12.41.50.7-0.40.5
    Other advanced economies10.26.56.34.74.13.53.52.92.43.02.1
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries5.64.45.03.12.62.02.11.61.51.11.3
    European Union7.25.57.34.13.62.62.92.41.81.71.8
    Euro area7.04.77.34.43.72.72.92.21.51.61.7
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.87.37.65.65.14.43.93.42.75.31.7
    Consumer prices
    Advanced economies6.35.24.73.53.12.62.52.42.11.61.6
    Major industrial countries5.54.84.33.22.82.22.32.22.01.31.5
    United States5.55.44.23.03.02.62.82.92.31.62.2
    Japan2.50.13.31.71.20.7-0.10.11.70.4-0.7
    Garmany22.92.73.54.74.42.71.81.01.81.01.2
    France7.33.43.22.42.11.71.82.01.20.70.9
    Italy11.26.56.35.34.64.15.23.91.71.71.6
    United Kingdom37.08.16.84.73.02.42.82.92.82.62.5
    Canada6.54.85.61.51.80.22.21.61.41.21.8
    Other advanced economies10.16.76.34.94.14.13.73.22.52.72.2
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries5.85.04.53.32.92.32.42.32.01.41.5
    European Union7.05.45.14.43.83.02.92.51.91.51.6
    Euro area6.94.44.41.33.83.02.92.41.71.31.4
    Newly industrialized Asian economies6.77.07.55.94.65.64.64.33.44.72.3
    Developing countries35.968.236.438.747.351.622.314.19.210.28.4
    Regional groups
    Africa15.016.024.432.430.837.534.126.711.08.57.8
    Asia8.87.08.27.211.115.912.87.94.77.96.4
    Middle East and Europe19.522.427.525.624.631.935.924.622.423.620.5
    Western Hemisphere116.7438.4129.0151.4208.5208.335.920.813.910.38.3
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel13.314.321.322.826.132.442.730.715.114.911.8
    Nonfuel40.377.738.741.050.254.120.112.48.59.78.0
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries2.63.96.13.24.23.45.02.41.31.31.7
    Net creditor countries37.471.237.740.149.153.522.914.59.410.48.6
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Couniries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1993–9769.4273.9111.6152.7216.2233.243.022.212.610.48.0
    Other net debtor countries23.722.415.511.613.217.116.712.18.410.48.0
    Countries in transition8.638.695.8656.6609.3268.4124.141.427.921.030.2
    Central and eastern Europe95.4283.1357.7153.375.332.438.417.616.4
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine98.9103.879.945.125.123.440.916.410.4
    Russia92.71,353.0895.9302.0190.147.814.726.056.3
    Transcaucasus and central Asia110.9945.31,224.21,667.7183.668.730.819.811.8
    Memorandum
    Median inflation rate
    Advanced economies6.95.44.03.23.02.42.42.11.81.71.7
    Developing countries9.810.411.89.89.510.610.07.3625.04.7
    Countries in transition1.27.8101.4839.6472.2131.646.014.114.911.18.3

    For classification of countries in groups shown in this table, and conventions used to calculate the group composites and multiyear averages, see the introduction to World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.

    Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

    Table 4.Fiscal Indicators1, 2(Percent of GDP)
    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Advanced economies
    Central government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-2.6-3.0-4.0-4.2-3.6-3.2-2.6-1.3-1.3-1.4
    United States-3.0-3.5-4.7-3.9-2.7-2.3-1.4-0.30.60.6
    Japan-0.5-0.2-1.7-2.7-3.5-4.0-4.3-4.1-5.5-6.3
    Germany3-2.0-1.9-1.3-2.1-1.5-1.5-2.2-1.7-1.5-1.4
    France-1.7-1.7-2.9-4.3-4.7-4.0-3.6-2.6-2.8-2.6
    Italy-10.2-10.3-10.4-10.0-9.2-7.1-6.9-2.7-2.7-2.5
    United Kingdom-1.1-2.2-6.9-7.9-6.7-5.3-4.7-2.0-0.2-0.8
    Canada-3.7-4.3-4.0-4.7-3.4-3.0-1.40.81.30.9
    General government fiscal balance
    Advanced economies-2.1-2.7-3.6-4.1-3.4-3.2-2.5-1.1-1.2-1.5
    United States-2.7-3.3-4.4-3.6-2.3-1.9-0.90.21.11.1
    Japan2.92.91.5-1.6-2.3-3.6-4.2-3.5-6.2-8.5
    Germany3-2.0-3.3-2.8-3.2-2.4-3.33.4-2.7-2.4-2.3
    France-1.7-2.2-3.8-5.8-5.7-4.9-4.2-3.0-2.9-2.3
    Italy-11.1-10.1-9.6-9.5-9.2-7.7-6.7-2.7-2.8-2.4
    United Kingdom-1.2-2.5-6.2-7.8-6.8-5.5-4.5-1.90.1-0.7
    Canada-4.5-7.2-8.0-7.6-5.6-4.5-2.20.91.51.4
    General government structural balance4
    Advanced economies-3.0-2.8-3.2-3.0-2.5-2.5-1.9-0.7-0.6-0.8
    United States-2.7-2.1-3.12.3-1.41.1-0.50.20.60.7
    Japan1.92.01.92-1.2-1.4-2.6-4.2-3.2-4.2-5.8
    Excluding social security-1.3-1.4-2.2-4.5-4.5-5.8-6.8-5.4-6.6-8.4
    Germany-3.2-5.4-4.0-2.2-1.2-2.0-1.5-0.7-0.9-0.8
    France-2.9-2.5-3.4-3.2-3.6-3.0-1.9-0.8-1.3-0.9
    Italy-12.2-10.7-9.5-8.2-7.9-7.15.7-1.6-1.5-1.2
    United Kingdom-3.8-2.7-3.7-4.5-4.5-4.3-3.9-1.9-0.6-0.8
    Canada-5.0-4.7-4.4-4.6-4.2-3.4-0.61.82.12.1
    Developing countries
    Central government fiscal balance
    Weighted average-3.1-3.4-2.9-3.2-2.7-2.5-2.3-2.3-3.6-3.3
    Median-4.1-3.93.9-4.1-3.7-3.5-2.7-2.6-3.0-2.5
    General government fiscal balance
    Weighted average-3.8-3.8-3.4-3.6-3.3-3.1-2.9-2.9-3.8-3.4
    Median-4.0-3.8-3.9-4.1-3.7-3.5-2.8-2.6-2.7-2.3
    Countries in transition
    Central government fiscal balance-4.2-9.4-10.8-5.9-7.4-4.0-4.9-4.5-4.4-3.4
    General government fiscal balance-4.3-9.6-15.5-6.8-7.2-4.5-5.6-5.0-5.1-4.1

    For classification of countries in groups shown in this table, and conventions used to calculate the group composites, see the introduction to World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    See World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix, Tables 15–16, for definitions.

    Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

    Percent of potential GDP.

    Table 5.World Trade Volumes and Prices1(Annual percent change)
    Average
    1980–891990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Trade in goods and services
    World trade2
    Volume4.45.64.64.73.69.29.57.09.93.34.4
    Price deflator
    In U.S. dollars2.58.8-2.12.6-3.82.42.4-1.4-5.8-4.12.7
    In SDRs2.62.8-2.9-0.3-3.0-0.12.33.0-0.6-3.1-0.6
    Volume of trade
    Exports
    Advanced economies5.333.75.85.23.48.99.06.310.43.33.7
    Developing countries2.17.56.710.47.513.110.58.711.32.95.4
    Imports
    Advanced economies5.25.73.34.71.79.79.06.59.24.64.6
    Developing countries2.16.09.19.88.77.111.59.510.4-0.75.7
    Terms of trade
    Advanced economies0.3-0.4-1.70.60.90.1-0.3-0.61.1
    Developing countries-0.81.5-5.4-3.4-2.8-0.12.62.30.1-5.01.3
    Trade in goods
    World trade2
    Volume4.45.14.85.13.810.110.26.710.43.34.3
    Price deflator
    In U.S. dollars2.38.1-2.41.9-4.52.68.7-1.5-6.3-4.42.8
    In SDRs2.42.1-3.2-1.0-3.72.63.02.1-3.5-0.5
    Volume of trade
    Exports
    Advanced economies5.36.25.74.93.09.69.36.111.23.63.4
    Developing countries1.78.55.510.67.514.012.08.611.32.45.4
    Fuel exporters-2.19.01.812.02.58.13.86.97.4-2.53.9
    Nonfuel exporters5.78.37.510.09.616.114.59.112.53.85.8
    Imports
    Advanced economies5.25.14.14.82.311.19.46.09.84.74.8
    Developing countries2.96.06.915.510.47.912.39.19.6-1.05.5
    Fuel exporters-1.12.83.226.8-5.7-12.23.61.712.83.64.8
    Nonfuel exporters4.37.08.012.214.912.513.810.39.1-1.85.6
    World trade prices in U.S. dollars3
    Manufactures3.29.9-0.33.5-5.73.110.1-3.0-8.1-2.54.0
    Oil28.4-15.7-1.7-11.8-5.07.918.4-5.4-30.58.4
    Nonfuel primary commodities0.6-6.4-5.70.11.813.48.4-1.2-3.3-15.6-0.6
    World trade prices in SDRs2
    Manufactures3.33.8-1.10.6-4.90.53.91.3-3.1-1.50.6
    Oil21.3-16.4-4.5-11.1-7.31.823.7-0.2-29.84.9
    Nonfuel primary commodities0.6-11.6-6.5-2.82.710.62.33.32.0-14.7-3.8
    Terms of trade
    Advanced economies0.4-0.7-1.01.32.00.50.2-0.8-1.10.9
    Developing countries-0.51.1-5.70.1-3.4-0.31.62.10.2-4.81.1
    Fuel exporters-2.711.6-17.45.8-10.7-6.1-0.59.3-0.2-14.93.6
    Nonfuel exporters-0.2-3.6-0.4-1.1-0.51.82.00.30.3-2.10.4
    Memorandum
    World exports in billions of U.S. dollars
    Goods and services2,1464,2734,4034,7054,7095,2626,2396,5606,7316,7317,218
    Goods1,7253,4033,4943,7203,7064,1845,0085,2465,4335,7445,744

    For classification of countries in groups shown in this table, and conventions used to calculate the group composites and multiyear averages, see the introduction to World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    Average of annual percent change for world exports and imports. The estimates of world trade comprise, in addition to trade of advanced economies and developing countries (which is summarized in the table), trade of countries in transition.

    As represented, respectively, by the export unit value index for the manufactures of the advanced economies; the average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices; and the average of world market prices for nonfuel primary commodities weighted by their 1987–89 shares in world commodity exports.

    Table 6.Payments Balances on Current Account1(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Advanced economies-87-24-17623351357244-6
    Major industrial countries-79-21-2312-9-1-216-60-107
    United States-92-4-51-86-124-115-135-155-231-288
    Japan44681121321311116694128139
    Germany249-18-19-14-20-23-14-434
    France-10-64971121393125
    Italy-17-25-308132541342932
    United Kingdom-33-14-18-15-3-6-37-7-10
    Canada-20-22-21-22-13-53-9-13-10
    Other advanced economies-8-365042525666104101
    Memorandum
    Industrial countries-106-39-344319503966-15-57
    European Union-33-83-81622539012310095
    Euro area10-63-5723225587112103102
    Newly industrialized Asian economies19161621166196254
    Developing countries-25-98-79-121-89-94-74-66-95-84
    Regional groups
    Africa-8-7-10-16-12-16-55-16-17
    Asia-16-11-13-34-20-42-393324
    Middle East and Europe1-63-21-30-6-184-25-21
    Western Hemisphere-1-17-35-46-51-36-35-65-87-70
    Analytical groups
    By source of export earnings
    Fuel18-60-25-25-632922-20-14
    Nonfuel-43-38-54-96-43-97-102-88-76-70
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries11-49-10-15-831110-8-4
    Net debtor countries-36-49-69-107-81-97-84-76-87-80
    Official financing-14-13-14-18-15-16-14-13-18-19
    Private financing3-22-42-4-49-57-47-41-53-43
    Diversified financing-25-14-12-15-17-24-24-22-16-18
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1993–97-19-25-20-29-16-38-25-40-64-56
    Other net debtor countries-17-24-49-78-65-60-59-36-23-24
    Countries in transition-205-74-2-18-25-21-12
    Central and eastern Europe-53-9-4-6-17-20-20-21
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine33-7-2-4-15-18-18-19
    Russia4-13963-1514
    Transcaucasus and central Asia6-2-1-12-44-6-5
    Total3-132-117-96-66-52-45-57-19-72-101

    For classification of countries in groups in this table, and conventions used to calculate the group composites and multiyear averages, seethe introduction to the World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    Data through June 1990 apply to west Germany only.

    Reflects errors, omissions, and asymmetries in balance of payments statistics on current account, as well as the exclusion of data for international organizations and a limited number of countries.

    Table 7.External Debt and Debt Service
    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Percent of exports of goods and services
    External debt3
    Developing countries177.6184.0180.7191.9163.3163.3152.1143.1160.2157.0
    Regional groups
    Africa217.7234.5232.2264.4273.6248.1226.4210.5233.5221.1
    Asia163.2159.4153.2151.9139.3124.0119.7115.7124.0121.8
    Middle East and Europe92.397.9100.9115.0111.1100.389.184.8103.6100.8
    Western Hemisphere266.7277.3276.5293.3264.6248.8231.3213.6240.5235.7
    Analytical groups
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries12.313.118.121.021.216.514.314.922.924.6
    Net debtor countries210.9216.3210.2219.4201.8182.9170.4159.8176.1172.3
    Official financing331.9350.7351.7370.8368.3324.1295.3280.5299.5284.7
    Private financing169.5172.4168.6181.9161.2150.2140.8132.5150.0149.5
    Diversified financing271.9288.4275.7270.8268.9234.1217.7203.7211.8200.3
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1993–97284.9314.1313.8332.0323.4290.1262.7242.9277.4265.7
    Other net debtor countries172.0172.01166.0174.8158.7146.6138.4131.3143.0140.2
    Countries in transition100.0106.7128.3126.1120.1100.195.494.8106.6103.8
    Central and eastern Europe115.7107.9109.8103.087.983.082.387.987.6
    Excluding Belarus and Russia157.4123.0127.0111.493.790.988.393.792.7
    Russia154.8183.4171.1156.1126.6121.7121.3150.7145.6
    Transcaucasus and central Asia2.517.135.960.160.863.773.385.882.6
    Debt-service payments
    Developing countries21.922.423.524.023.521.922.021.524.623.2
    Regional groups
    Africa24.627.726.926.326.826.024.821.025.724.3
    Asia18.417.118.418.016.916.215.913.917.917.4
    Middle East and Europe10.310.311.713.212.410.910.69.014.412.7
    Western Hemisphere37.739.341.943.243.339.741.746.544.541.0
    Analytical groups
    By external financing source
    Net creditor countries1.20.80.91.54.35.34.42.42.52.7
    Net debtor countries26.026.527.627.626.224.124.324.027.125.5
    Official financing23.326.926.225.427.827.421.221.525.024.8
    Private financing25.925.926.627.025.523.424.124.626.625.2
    Diversified financing28.028.431.931.028.0224.826.622.729.927.1
    Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
    Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1993–9730.533.432.635.330.529.629.432.839.535.2
    Other net debtor countries23.723.425.524.624.622.222.621.023.122.2
    Countries in transition18.118.714.510.113.611.09.89.715.214.4
    Central and eastern Europe20.911.611.519.713.811.912.314.913.9
    Excluding Belarus and Ukraine28.513.713.821.214.813.213.515.515.0
    Russia26.421.99.45.66.76.75.815.617.7
    Transcaucasus and central Asia1.02.35.18.77.26.815.96.4
    Billions of U.S. dollars
    Memorandum
    External debt
    Developing countries1,180.91,233.81,312.91,459.01,552.01,683.71,748.41,791.21,459.02,000.1
    Countries in transition210.5212.4234.3248.9266.9277.8286.1322.7335.8
    Debt-service payments
    Developing countries145.5150.3170.8182.6203.3225.5252.6268.8295.5295.2
    Countries in transition37.024.018.728.229.328.529.346.046.6
    1

    For classification of countries in groups shown in this table, and conventions used to calculate the group composites and multiyear averages, see the introduction to World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    2

    Debt-service payments refer to actual payments of interest on total debt plus actual amortization payments on long-term debt. The projections incorporate the impact of exceptional financing items.

    Total debt at year-end in percent of exports of goods and services in year indicated.

    Table 8.External Financing1(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999
    Developing countries and countries in transition
    Balance of payments
    Balance on current account-45.1-93.0-78.9-128.3-85.1-96.0-91.590.6-116.5-95.6
    Balance on capital and financial account45.193.078.9128.385.196.091.590.6116.595.6
    By balance of payments component
    Capital transfers224.99.23.85.212.52.99.27.611.06.3
    Net financial flows65.8138.7132.4191.1150.2213.3209.3161.1127.7134.1
    Errors and omissions, net-17.7-15.3-13.8-7.8-27.1-11.8-31.4-20.9-31.9-25.6
    Change in reserves (- = increase)-28.0-39.6-43.6-60.2-50.5-108.3-95.7-57.29.6-19.2
    By type of financing flow
    Nonexceptional financing flows12.592.670.6131.681.3166.9164.1141.4104.496.4
    Exceptional financing flows60.540.051.856.854.437.423.06.42.518.3
    Arrears on debt service27.423.116.117.1-1.0-14.6-12.3-6.1
    Debt forgiveness22.85.40.51.39.12.86.53.3
    Rescheduling of debt service21.520.926.538.540.645.426.518.3
    Change in reserves (- = increase)-28.0-39.6-43.6-60.2-50.5-108.3-95.7-57.29.6-19.2
    External financing
    Balance on current account-45.1-93.0-78.9-128.3-85.1-96.0-116.5-90.6-116.5-95.6
    Change in reserves (- = increase)3-28.0-39.6-43.6-60.2-50.5-108.3-95.7-57.29.6-19.2
    Asset transactions, including net errors and omissions4-42.227.2-22.7-2.5-31.8-14.8-70.7-113.3-117.8-91.4
    Total, net external Financing5115.2105.4145.1190.9167.5219.2257.8261.1224.7206.1
    Non-debt-creating flows, net44.144.149.2187.9112.7114.6149.2174.3137.8128.5
    Capital transfers224.99.23.85.212.52.99.27.611.06.3
    Direct investment and portfolio investment equity flows19.234.945.282.8100.3111.7140.0166.7126.8122.2
    Net credit and loans from IMF6-1.63.51.13.61.617.30.73.2
    Net external borrowing772.757.894.999.453.287.2107.983.681.096.3
    Borrowing from official creditors824.536.720.819.4-2.223.42.46.727.013.6
    Borrowing from banks97.412.312.3-2.6-29.913.914.14.317.88.5
    Other borrowing1040.88.861.882.685.349.991.372.536.374.2
    Memorandum
    Balance on goods and services in percent of GDP110.2-0.4-1.5-2.3-1.1-1.0-0.9-0.8-1.0-0.5
    Scheduled amortization of external debt119.0122.1142.9154.0159.8169.8185.6201.4219.0209.7
    Gross external financing12234.2227.5288.0344.9327.3389.0443.4462.5443.7415.8
    Gross external borrowing12191.7179.9237.8253.4213.0257.1293.4285.0300.1305.9
    Net credit and loans from IMF6
    Advanced economies0.3-0.1-0.111.3
    Newly industrialized Asian economies11.3
    Developing countries-1.91.1-0.4-0.1-0.812.6-2.90.8
    Countries in transition0.32.41.63.72.44.73.72.4

    For classification of countries in groups shown in this table, and conventions used to calculate the group composites and multiyear averages, see the introduction to World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    Comprise debt forgiveness as well as all other identified transactions on capital account as defined in the fifth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual.

    Positioned here to reflect the discretionary nature of many countries’ transactions in reserves.

    Include changes in recorded private external assets (mainly portfolio investment), export credit, the collateral for debt-reduction operations, and the net change in unrecorded balance of payments flows (net errors and omissions).

    Equals, with opposite sign, the sum of transactions listed above. It is the amount required to finance the deficit on goods and services, factor income, and current transfers; the increase in the official reserve level; the net asset transactions; and the transactions underlying net errors and omissions.

    Comprise use of IMF resources under the General Resources Account, Trust Fund, Structural Adjustment Facility (SAF), and Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF). For further detail, see Table 37 of World Economic OutlookStatistical Appendix.

    Net disbursement of long- and short-term credits (including exceptional financing) by both official and private creditors.

    Net disbursements by official creditors (other than monetary authorities) based on directly reported flows, and flows derived from statistics on debt stocks. The estimates include the increase in official claims caused by the transfer of officially guaranteed claims to the guarantor agency in the creditor country, usually in the context of debt rescheduling.

    Net disbursements by commercial banks based on directly reported flows and on cross-border claims and liabilities reported in the International Banking section of the IMF’s International Financial Statistics.

    Includes primary bond issues and loans on the international capital markets. Since the estimates are residually derived, they also reflect any under-recording or misclassification of official and commercial bank credits above.

    This is often referred to as the “resource balance” and, with opposite sign, the “net resource transfer.”

    Net external financing or borrowing (see footnotes 5 and 7, respectively) plus amortization due on external debt.

    World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–98

    I. Methodology—Aggregation, Modeling, and Forecasting

    World Economic Outlook
    The Accuracy of World Economic Outlook Projections for the Major Industrial CountriesMay 1992, Annex VIII
    Revised Weights for the World Economic OutlookMay 1993, Annex IV
    Structural Budget Indicators for Major Industrial CountriesOctober 1993, Annex I
    The New Balance of Payments ManualMay 1994, Box 13
    The Difficult Art of ForecastingOctober 1996, Annex I
    World Current Account DiscrepancyOctober 1996, Annex III
    Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for JapanOctober 1997, Box 2
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    An Extended Scenario and Forecast Adjustment Model for Developing Countries
    Manmohan S. Kumar, Hossein Samiei, and Sheila BassettDecember 1993
    How Accurate Are the World Economic Outlook Projections?
    Jose M. BarrionuevoDecember 1993
    Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic Outlook
    Anne Marie Guide and Marianne Schulze-GhattasDecember 1993
    How Accurate Are the IMF’s Short-Term Forecasts?
    Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook
    Michael J. ArtisDecember 1997
    IMF’s Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice
    Paula R. De MasiDecember 1997
    Multilateral Unit-Labor-Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries
    Anthony G. Turner and Stephen GolubDecember 1997

    II. Historical Surveys

    World Economic Outlook
    The Postwar Economic AchievementOctober 1994, Chapter VI
    Non-Oil Commodity PricesOctober 1994, Box 10
    The Rise and Fall of Inflation—Lessons from Postwar ExperienceOctober 1996, Chapter VI

    III. Economic Growth—Sources and Patterns

    World Economic Outlook
    Convergence and Divergence in Developing CountriesMay 1993, Chapter IV
    Trade as an Engine of GrowthMay 1993, Chapter VI
    New Theories of Growth and TradeMay 1993, Box 9
    Why Are Some Developing Countries Failing to Catch Up?May 1994, Chapter IV
    The Postwar Economic AchievementOctober 1994, Chapter VI
    Business Cycles and Potential OutputOctober 1994, Box 5
    Economic ConvergenceOctober 1994, Box 11
    Saving in a Growing World EconomyMay 1995, Chapter V
    North-South R&D SpilloversMay 1995, Box 6
    Long-Term Growth Potential in the Countries in TransitionOctober 1996, Chapter V
    Globalization and the Opportunities for Developing CountriesMay 1997, Chapter IV
    Measuring Productivity Gains in East Asian EconomiesMay 1997, Box 9
    The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange RatesMay 1998, Chapter III
    The Asian Crisis and the Region’s Long-Term Growth PerformanceOctober 1998, Chapter III
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    How Large Was the Output Collapse in Russia?
    Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications
    Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Vincent KoenSeptember 1995
    Deindustrialization: Causes and Implications
    Robert Rowthovn and Ramana RamaswamyDecember 1997

    IV. Inflation and Deflation; Commodity Markets

    World Economic Outlook
    Asset Price Deflation, Balance Sheet Adjustment, and Financial FragilityOctober 1992, Annex I
    Monetary Policy, Financial Liberalization, and Asset Price InflationMay 1993, Annex I
    Price StabilityMay 1993, Box 2
    Oil Demand and Supply in the Medium TermMay 1993, Box 5
    Hyperinflation and Chronic InflationOctober 1993, Box 8
    The Impact of Lower Oil PricesMay 1994, Box 3
    Non-Oil Commodity PricesOctober 1994, Box 10
    Nonfuel Primary Commodity PricesOctober 1995, Box 2
    The Rise and Fall of Inflation—Lessons from Postwar ExperienceOctober 1996, Chapter VI
    World Oil Market: Recent Developments and OutlookOctober 1996, Annex II
    In flat ion TargetsOctober 1996, Box 8
    Indexed Bonds and Expected InflationOctober 1996, Box 9
    Effects of High Inflation on Income DistributionOctober 1996, Box 10
    Central Bank Independence and InflationOctober 1996, Box 11
    Rising Petroleum Prices in 1996May 1997, Box 3
    Recent Developments in Primary Commodity MarketsMay 1998, Annex II
    Japan’s Liquidity TrapOctober 1998, Box 4.1
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    “Boom and Bust” in Asset Markets in the 1980s: Causes and Consequences
    Garry J. Schinasi and Monica HargravesDecember 1993
    Prices in the Transition: Ten Stylized Facts
    Vincent Koen and Paula R. De MasiDecember 1997

    V. Fiscal Policy

    World Economic Outlook
    Structural Budget Indicators for Major Industrial CountriesOctober 1993, Annex I
    Economic Benefits of Reducing Military ExpenditureOctober 1993, Annex II
    The TreuhandanstaltOctober 1993, Box 9
    Structural Fiscal Balances in Smaller Industrial CountriesMay 1995, Annex III
    Can Fiscal Contraction Be Expansionary in the Short Run?May 1995, Box 2
    Pension Reform in Developing CountriesMay 1995, Box 11
    Effects of Increased Government Debt: Illustrative CalculationsMay 1995, Box 13
    Subsidies and Tax ArrearsOctober 1995, Box 8
    Focus on Fiscal PolicyMay 1996
    The Spillover Effects of Government DebtMay 1996, Annex I
    Uses and Limitations of Generational AccountingMay 1996, Box 5
    The European Union’s Stability and Growth PactOctober 1997, Box 3
    Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in TransitionMay 1998, Chapter V
    Pension Reform in Countries in TransitionMay 1998, Box 10
    Transparency in Government OperationsMay 1998, Annex I
    The Asian Crisis: Social Costs and Mitigating PoliciesOctober 1998, Box 2.4
    Fiscal Balances in the Asian Crisis Countries: Effects of Changes in the Economic Environment Versus Policy MeasuresOctober 1998, Box 2.5
    Aging in the East Asian Economies: Implications for Government Budgets and Saving RatesOctober 1998, Box 3.1
    Orienting Fiscal Policy in the Medium Term in Light of the Stability and Growth Pact and Longer-Term Fiscal NeedsOctober 1998, Box 5.2
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    An International Comparison of Tax Systems in Industrial Countries
    Enrique G. Mendoza, Assaf Razin, and Linda L. TesarDecember 1993

    VI. Monetary Policy; Financial Markets; Flow of Funds

    World Economic Outlook
    Monetary Policy, Financial Liberalization, and Asset Price InflationMay 1993, Annex I
    Chronology of Events in the Recent Crisis in the European Monetary SystemOctober 1993, Box 3
    Information Content of the Yield CurveMay 1994, Annex II
    Saving in a Growing World EconomyMay 1995, Chapter V
    Saving and Real Interest Rates in Developing CountriesMay 1995, Box 10
    Financial Market Turmoil and Economic Policies in Industrial CountriesOctober 1995, Chapter III
    Financial Liberalization in Africa and AsiaOctober 1995, Box 4
    Policy Challenges Facing Industrial Countries in the Late 1990sOctober 1996, Chapter III
    Using the Slope of the Yield Curve to Estimate Lags in Monetary Transmission MechanismOctober 1996, Box 2
    Financial RepressionOctober 1996, Box 5
    Bank-Restructuring Strategies in the Baltic States, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Main Issues and ChallengesOctober 1996, Box 7
    Monetary and Financial Sector Policies in Transition CountriesOctober 1997, Chapter V
    DollarizationOctober 1997, Box 6
    Interim Assessment (Focus on Crisis in Asia—Regional and Global Implications)December 1997
    Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of VulnerabilityMay 1998, Chapter IV
    The Role of Hedge Funds in Financial MarketsMay 1998, Box 1
    International Monetary System: Measures to Reduce the Risk of CrisesMay 1998, Box 3
    Resolving Banking Sector ProblemsMay 1998, Box 6
    Effective Banking Prudential Regulations and RequirementsMay 1998, Box 7
    Strengthening the Architecture of the International Monetary System
    Through International Standards and Principles of Good PracticeOctober 1998, Box 1.2
    The Role of Monetary Policy in Responding to Currency CrisesOctober 1998, Box 2.3
    Summary of Structural Reforms in Crisis CountriesOctober 1998, Box 3.2
    Japan’s Liquidity TrapOctober 1998, Box 4.1
    How Useful Are Taylor Rules as a Guide to ECB Monetary Policies?October 1998, Box 5.1
    The Crisis in Emerging MarketsDecember 1998, Chapter II
    Turbulence in Mature Financial MarketsDecember 1998, Chapter III
    What Is the Implied Future Earnings Growth Rate that Would
    Justify Current Equity Prices in the United States?December 1998, Box 3.2
    LeverageDecember 1998, Box 3.3
    The Near Collapse and Rescue of Long-Term Capital ManagementDecember 1998, Box 3.4
    Risk Management: Progress and ProblemsDecember 1998, Box 3.5
    Supervisory Reforms Relating to Risk ManagementDecember 1998, Box 3.6
    Emerging Market Banking SystemsDecember 1998, Annex
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    The Global Real Interest Rate
    Thomas Helbling and Robert WescottSeptember 1995
    A Monetary Impulse Measure for Medium-Term Policy Analysis
    Bennett T. McCallum and Monica HargravesSeptember 1995
    Saving Behavior in Industrial and Developing Countries
    Paid R. Masson, Tamim Bayoumi, and Hossein SamiciSeptember 1995

    VII. Labor Market Issues

    World Economic Outlook
    Fostering Job Creation, Growth, and Price Stability in Industrial CountriesMay 1994, Chapter III
    Capital Formation and EmploymentMay 1995, Box 4
    Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMUOctober 1997, Annex II
    Euro-Area Structural RigiditiesOctober 1998, Box 5.3
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    Unemployment and Wage Dynamics in MULTIMOD
    Leonardo Bartolini and Steve SymanskyDecember 1993
    Evaluating Unemployment Policies: What Do the Underlying
    Theories Tell Us?
    Dennis J. SnowerSeptember 1995
    Institutional Structure and Labor Market Outcomes:
    Western Lessons for European Countries in Transition
    Robert J. FlanaganSeptember 1995
    The Effect of Globalization on Wages in the Advanced Economies
    Matthew J. Slaughter and Phillip SwagelDecember 1997
    International Labor Standards and International Trade
    Stephen GolubDecember 1997

    VIII. Exchange Rate Issues

    World Economic Outlook
    Interim Assessment (Focus on Crisis in the European Monetary System)January 1993
    Recent Changes in the European Exchange Rate MechanismOctober 1993, Chapter III
    Chronology of Events in the Recent Crisis in the European
    Monetary SystemOctober 1993, Box 3
    Striving for Stability: Realignment of the CFA FrancMay 1994, Box 8
    Currency Arrangements in the Former Soviet Union and Baltic CountriesMay 1994, Box 10
    Exchange-Rate-Based StabilizationMay 1994, Box 11
    Exchange Market Reforms in AfricaOctober 1994, Box 3
    Currency ConvertibilityOctober 1994, Box 7
    Currency Substitution in Transition EconomiesOctober 1994, Box 8
    Exchange Rate Effects of Fiscal ConsolidationOctober 1995, Annex
    Exchange Rate Arrangements and Economic Performance in Developing CountriesOctober 1997, Chapter IV
    Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United StatesOctober 1997, Box 4
    Currency BoardsOctober 1997, Box 5
    The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange RatesMay 1998, Chapter III
    Evaluating Exchange RatesMay 1998, Box 5
    Determining Internal and External Conversion Rates for the EuroOctober 1998, Box 5.4
    The Euro Area and Effective Exchange RatesOctober 1998, Box 5.5
    Recent Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate MovementsDecember 1998, Box 3.1
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    Multilateral Unit-Labor-Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries
    Anthony G. Turner and Stephen GolubDecember 1997

    IX. External Payments, Trade, Capital Movements, and Foreign Debt

    World Economic Outlook
    Trade as an Engine of GrowthMay 1993, Chapter VI
    New Theories of Growth and TradeMay 1993, Box 9
    Is the Debt Crisis Over?October 1993, Box 5
    The Uruguay Round: Results and ImplicationsMay 1994, Annex I
    The New Balance of Payments ManualMay 1994, Box 13
    The Recent Surge in Capital Flows to Developing CountriesOctober 1994, Chapter IV
    Currency ConvertibilityOctober 1994, Box 7
    Trade Among the Transition CountriesOctober 1995, Box 7
    World Current Account DiscrepancyOctober 1996, Annex III
    Capital Inflows to Developing and Transition Countries—Identifying Causes and Formulating Appropriate Policy ResponsesOctober 1996, Annex IV
    Globalization—Opportunities and ChallengesMay 1997
    Moral Hazard and IMF LendingMay 1998, Box 2
    The Current Account and External SustainabilityMay 1998, Box 8
    Review of Debt-Reduction Efforts for Low-Income Countries and Status of the HIPC InitiativeOctober 1998, Box 1.1
    Trade Adjustment in East Asian Crisis CountriesOctober 1998, Box 2.2
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    Foreign Direct Investment in the World Economy
    Edward M. GrahamSeptember 1995

    X. Regional Issues

    World Economic Outlook
    The Maastricht Agreement on Economic and Monetary UnionMay 1992, Annex II
    Interim Assessment (Focus on Crisis in the European Monetary System)January 1993
    Chronology of Events in the Recent Crisis in the European
    Monetary SystemOctober 1993, Box 3
    Economic Performance and Financing Needs in AfricaOctober 1993, Box 6
    Stabilization and Economic Reform in the Baltic CountriesOctober 1993, Box 7
    Adjustment and Recovery in Latin America and the CaribbeanMay 1994, Annex III
    European Economic IntegrationOctober 1994, Annex I
    Adjustment in Sub-Saharan AfricaMay 1995, Annex II
    Macroeconomic and Structural Adjustment in the Middle East and North AfricaMay 1996, Annex II
    Stabilization and Reform of Formerly Centrally Planned
    Developing Economies in East AsiaMay 1997, Box 10
    EMU and the World EconomyOctober 1997, Chapter III
    Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMUOctober 1997, Annex II
    The European Union’s Stability and Growth PactOctober 1997, Box 3
    Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United StatesOctober 1997, Box 4
    Interim Assessment (Focus on Crisis in Asia—Regional and Global Implications)December 1997
    The Asian Crisis and the Region’s Long-Term Growth PerformanceOctober 1998, Chapter III
    Economic Policy Challenges Facing the Euro Area and the External Implications of EMUOctober 1998, Chapter V
    Economic Policymaking in the EU and Surveillance by EU InstitutionsOctober 1998, Chapter V, Appendix
    How Useful Are Taylor Rules as a Guide to ECB Monetary Policies?October 1998, Box 5.1
    Orienting Fiscal Policy in the Medium Term in Light of the Stability and Growth Pact and Longer-Term Fiscal NeedsOctober 1998, Box 5.2
    Euro Area Structural RigiditiesOctober 1998, Box 5.3
    Determining Internal and External Conversion Rates for the EuroOctober 1998, Box 5.4
    The Euro Area and Effective Exchange RatesOctober 1998, Box 5.5
    Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook
    The Design of EMU
    David BeggDecember 1997

    XI. Country-Specific Analyses

    World Economic Outlook
    Voucher Privatization in the Czech and Slovak Federal RepublicOctober 1992, Box 2
    Currency Reform in EstoniaOctober 1992, Box 3
    Economic Reforms, Growth, and Trade in ChinaMay 1993, Box 4
    Economic Arrangements for the Czech-Slovak BreakupMay 1993, Box 6
    India’s Economic ReboundOctober 1993, Box 1
    Japan’s Trade SurplusOctober 1993, Box 2
    The TreuhandanstaltOctober 1993, Box 9
    Adjustment and Recovery in Latin America and the CaribbeanMay 1994, Annex III
    Poland’s Economic ReboundMay 1994, Box 9
    Foreign Direct Investment in ChinaOctober 1994, Box 6
    Factors Behind the Financial Crisis in MexicoMay 1995, Annex I
    New Zealand’s Structural Reforms und Economic RevivalMay 1995, Box 3
    Brazil and KoreaMay 1995, Box 5
    The Output Collapse in RussiaMay 1995, Box 8
    Foreign Direct Investment in EstoniaMay 1995, Box 9
    September 1995 Economic Stimulus Packages in JapanOctober 1995, Box 1
    Uganda: Successful Adjustment Under Difficult CircumstancesOctober 1995, Box 3
    Changing Wage Structures in the Czech RepublicOctober 1995, Box 6
    Resolving Financial System Problems in JapanMay 1996, Box 3
    New Zealand’s Fiscal Responsibility ActMay 1996, Box 4
    Deindustrialization and the Labor Market in SwedenMay 1997, Box 7
    Ireland Catches UpMay 1997, Box 8
    Foreign Direct Investment Strategies in Hungary and KazakhstanMay 1997, Box 12
    China—Growth and Economic ReformsOctober 1997, Annex I
    Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for JapanOctober 1997, Box 2
    Hong Kong, China: Economic Linkages and Institutional ArrangementsOctober 1997, Box 9
    Russia’s Fiscal ChallengesMay 1998, Box 9
    Japan’s Economic Crisis and Policy OptionsOctober 1998, Chapter IV
    Brazil’s Financial Assistance Package and Adjustment ProgramDecember 1998, Box 1.1
    Recent Developments in the Japanese Financial SystemDecember 1998, Box 1.2
    Malaysia’s Capital ControlsDecember 1998, Box 2.1
    Hong Kong’s Intervention in the Equity Spot and Futures MarketsDecember 1998, Box 2.2
    Is China’s Growth Overstated?December 1998, Box 4.1
    Staff Studies for the Economic Outlook
    How Large Was the Output Collapse in Russia?
    Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications
    Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Vincent KoenSeptember 1995

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