Front Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Published Date:
April 2015
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    World Economic and Financial Surveys

    Global Financial Stability Report

    April 2015

    Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks

    ©2015 International Monetary Fund

    Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar

    Composition: AGS

    Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Joint Bank-Fund Library

    Global financial stability report – Washington, DC:

    International Monetary Fund, 2002–

    v. ; cm. – (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)

    Semiannual

    Some issues also have thematic titles.

    ISSN 1729-701X

    1. Capital market—Development countries—Periodicals.

    2. International finance—Periodicals. 3. Economic stabilization—

    Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: World economic and financial surveys.

    HG4523.G563

    ISBN 978-1-49837-293-0 (paper)

    978-1-47554-758-0 (ePub)

    978-1-47554-808-2 (Mobipocket)

    978-1-47559-658-8 (PDF)

    Disclaimer: The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report draws out the financial ramifications of economic issues highlighted in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO). The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on April 3, 2015. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.

    Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability ReportNavigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks (Washington, April 2015).

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    Contents

    Editor’s notes

    (April 16, 2015)

    Figure 2.9, panel 1 in Chapter 2 (page 68) has been corrected and replaced. The bars in panel 1 for “Selected euro area economies” and “Other euro area economies” were transposed in the original release of the report.

    Figure 3.5 in Chapter 3 (page 104) has been corrected and replaced. The circle for “EM bond MF” appeared slightly too small in the original release of the report. The “AE HY corporate bond” circle has been renamed as “AE HY bond.”

    Figure 3.6 in Chapter 3 (page 105) has been corrected and replaced. The data in this figure as they originally appeared in the report were incorrect.

    Annex Figure 3.1.1, panel 3 in Chapter 3 (page 124) has been corrected and replaced. The data in panel 3 as printed in the original report were partially incorrect.

    Assumptions and Conventions

    The following conventions are used throughout the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR):

    … to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;

    — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;

    − between years or months (for example, 2013–14 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;

    / between years or months (for example, 2013/14) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.

    “Billion” means a thousand million.

    “Trillion” means a thousand billion.

    “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

    If no source is listed on tables and figures, data are based on IMF staff estimates or calculations.

    Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding.

    As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

    Further Information and Data

    This version of the GFSR is available in full through the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf.org) and the IMF website (www.imf.org).

    The data and analysis appearing in the GFSR are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of publication. Every effort is made to ensure, but not guarantee, their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, there is a concerted effort to correct them as appropriate and feasible. Corrections and revisions made after publication are incorporated into the electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf.org) and on the IMF website (www.imf.org). All substantive changes are listed in detail in the online tables of contents.

    For details on the terms and conditions for usage of the contents of this publication, please refer to the IMF Copyright and Usage website, www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.

    Preface

    The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) assesses key risks facing the global financial system. In normal times, the report seeks to play a role in preventing crises by highlighting policies that may mitigate systemic risks, thereby contributing to global financial stability and the sustained economic growth of the IMF’s member countries.

    The current report finds that, despite an improvement in economic prospects in some key advanced economies, new challenges to global financial stability have arisen. The global financial system is being buffeted by a series of changes, including lower oil prices and, in some cases, diverging growth patterns and monetary policies. Expectations for rising U.S. policy rates sparked a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while long-term bond yields in many advanced economies have decreased—and have turned negative for almost a third of euro area sovereign bonds—on disinflation concerns and the prospect of continued monetary accommodation. Emerging markets are caught in these global cross currents, with some oil exporters and other facing new stability challenges, while others have gained more policy space as a result of lower fuel prices and reduced inflationary pressures. The report also examines changes in international banking since the global financial crisis and finds that these changes are likely to promote more stable bank lending in host countries. Finally, the report finds that the asset management industry needs to strengthen its oversight framework to address financial stability risks from incentive problems between end-investors and portfolio managers and the risk of runs due to liquidity mismatches.

    The analysis in this report has been coordinated by the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department under the general direction of José Viñals, Financial Counsellor and Director. The project has been directed by Peter Dattels and Dong He, both Deputy Directors, as well as by Gaston Gelos and Matthew Jones, both Division Chiefs. It has benefited from comments and suggestions from the senior staff in the MCM Department.

    Individual contributors to the report are Ali Al-Eyd, Nicolás Arregui, Serkan Arslanalp, Jonathan Beauchamp, Rina Bhattacharya, John Bluedorn, Antoine Bouveret, Peter Breuer, Yingyuan Chen, Martin Čihák, Fabio Cortes, Cristina Cuervo, Pragyan Deb, Reinout De Bock, Martin Edmonds, Johannes Ehrentraud, Jennifer Elliott, Michaela Erbenova, Brenda González-Hermosillo, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Sanjay Hazarika, Geoffrey Heenan, Allison Holland, Eija Holttinen, Hibiki Ichiue, Bradley Jones, David Jones, William Kerry, Oksana Khadarina, Yoon Kim, Frederic Lambert, Daniel Law, Min-Jer Lee, Peter Lindner, Andrea Maechler, Joe Maloney, Alejandro Lopez Mejia, Win Monroe, Hiroko Oura, Evan Papageorgiou, Alexandra Peter, Vladimir Pillonca, Alvaro Piris Chavarri, Jean Portier, Gabriel Presciuttini, Shaun Roache, Luigi Ruggerone, Martin Saldias, Luca Sanfilippo, Tsuyoshi Sasaki, Katharine Seal, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, Narayan Suryakumar, Shamir Tanna, Nico Valckx, Chris Walker, Jeffrey Williams, and Kai Yan. Magally Bernal, Carol Franco, Daniela Mendoza, Juan Rigat, and Adriana Rota were responsible for word processing.

    Joe Procopio from the Communications Department led the editorial team and managed the report’s production with support from Michael Harrup and Linda Kean and editorial assistance from Cathy Gagnet, Lucy Scott Morales, Sherrie Brown, Gregg Forte, Linda Long, David Einhorn, EEI Communications, and AGS.

    This particular edition of the GFSR draws in part on a series of discussions with banks, securities firms, asset management companies, hedge funds, standards setters, financial consultants, pension funds, central banks, national treasuries, and academic researchers.

    This GFSR reflects information available as of March 27, 2015. The report benefited from comments and suggestions from staff in other IMF departments, as well as from Executive Directors following their discussion of the GFSR on April 3, 2015. However, the analysis and policy considerations are those of the contributing staff and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Directors, or their national authorities.

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