World Economic Outlook, April 2016 : Too Slow for Too Long

Front Matter

Front Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
April 2016
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    World Economic and Financial Surveys

    World Economic Outlook

    APR 16

    Too Slow for Too Long

    ©2016 International Monetary Fund

    Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar

    Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company

    Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Joint Bank-Fund Library

    Names: International Monetary Fund.

    Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)

    Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys.

    Description: Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877.

    Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online)

    Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations—Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. | International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals.

    Classification: LCC HC10.W79

    HC10.80

    ISBN 978-1-49839-858-9 (paper)

    978-1-47554-372-8 (PDF)

    978-1-47556-199-9 (ePub)

    978-1-47556-264-4 (Mobi)

    The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 28, 2016. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.

    Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2016. World Economic Outlook: Too Slow for Too Long. Washington, April.

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    Contents

    Editor’s notes:

    (April 11, 2016)

    • Figure 1.9 on page 9 was corrected to include a portion of note 1 that was cut off in the original version.

    • Scenario Figure 1 on page 15 was corrected to include the source line, which was omitted in the original version.

    (May 25, 2016)

    Page 89 was corrected to remove a repeated paragraph.

    (July 11, 2016)

    • The Sources and Note in Figure 2.14 on page 74 were replaced to correct an incorrect source attribution and provide some additional information.

    Assumptions and Conventions

    A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during February 2–March 1, 2016, except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $34.75 a barrel in 2016 and $40.99 a barrel in 2017 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.9 percent in 2016 and 1.5 percent in 2017; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average −0.3 percent in 2016 and −0.4 percent in 2017; and that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield on average −0.1 percent in 2016 and −0.3 percent in 2017. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through March 25, 2016.

    The following conventions are used throughout the WEO:

    … to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;

    —between years or months (for example, 2015–16 or January—June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;

    / between years or months (for example, 2015/16) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.

    “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.

    “Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

    Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Table F in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.

    For some countries, the figures for 2015 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Please refer to Table G in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.

    • Data for Macao Special Administrative Region and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico are included in data aggregated for the advanced economies. Macao is a Special Administrative Region of China, and Puerto Rico is a territory of the United States, but the WEO maintains statistical data for both economies on a separate and independent basis.

    • Argentina’s and Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all the WEO groups’ aggregates. In the tables and figures, the following conventions apply:

    • If no source is listed on tables and figures, data are drawn from the WEO database.

    • When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size.

    • Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding.

    As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

    Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteristics or region. Unless noted otherwise, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of the weighted group data.

    The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

    Further Information and Data

    This version of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) is available in full through the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf.org) and the IMF website (www.imf.org). Accompanying the publication on the IMF website is a larger compilation of data from the WEO database than is included in the report itself, including files containing the series most frequently requested by readers. These files may be downloaded for use in a variety of software packages.

    The data appearing in the World Economic Outlook are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of the WEO exercises. The historical data and projections are based on the information gathered by the IMF country desk officers in the context of their missions to IMF member countries and through their ongoing analysis of the evolving situation in each country. Historical data are updated on a continual basis as more information becomes available, and structural breaks in data are often adjusted to produce smooth series with the use of splicing and other techniques. IMF staff estimates continue to serve as proxies for historical series when complete information is unavailable. As a result, WEO data can differ from those in other sources with official data, including the IMF’s International Financial Statistics.

    The WEO data and metadata provided are “as is” and “as available,” and every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness, but it cannot be guaranteed. When errors are discovered, there is a concerted effort to correct them as appropriate and feasible. Corrections and revisions made after publication are incorporated into the electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf.org) and on the IMF website (www.imf.org). All substantive changes are listed in detail in the online tables of contents.

    For details on the terms and conditions for usage of the WEO database, please refer to the IMF Copyright and Usage website (www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

    Inquiries about the content of the World Economic Outlook and the WEO database should be sent by mail, fax, or online forum (telephone inquiries cannot be accepted):

    World Economic Studies Division

    Research Department

    International Monetary Fund

    700 19th Street, N.W.

    Washington, DC 20431, U.S.A.

    Fax: (202) 623-6343

    Online Forum: www.imf.org/weoforum

    Preface

    The analysis and projections contained in the World Economic Outlook are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries, of developments in international financial markets, and of the global economic system. The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—together with the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, and the Fiscal Affairs Department.

    The analysis in this report was coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The project was directed by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Deputy Director, Research Department, and Oya Celasun, Division Chief, Research Department.

    The primary contributors to this report were Rudolfs Bems, Luis Catão, Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Alexander Hijzen, João Jalles, Sinem Kiliç Çelik, Zsóka Kóczán, Weicheng Lian, and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro.

    Other contributors include Jaebin Ahn, Juliana Araujo, Rabah Arezki, Gavin Asdorian, Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Christian Bogmans, Romain Bouis, Emine Boz, Matteo Cacciatore, Eugenio Cerutti, Vanessa Diaz Montelongo, Angela Espiritu, Johannes Eugster, Rachel Yuting Fan, Giuseppe Fiori, Emily Forrest, Peter Gal, Fabio Ghironi, Eric Gould, Mitko Grigorov, Mahnaz Hemmati, Bingjie Hu, Ben Hunt, Carla Intal, Hao Jiang, Maria Jovanović, Sung Eun Jung, Alimata Kini Kaboré, Toh Kuan, Douglas Laxton, Christina Yun Liu, Prakash Loungani, Olivia Ma, Pedro Martins, Akito Matsumoto, Trevor Meadows, Giovanni Melina, Jakob Miethe, Susanna Mursula, Futoshi Narita, Huy Nguyen, Emory Oakes, Andrea Presbitero, Frantisek Ricka, Rachel Szy-manski, Nicholas Tong, Petia Topalova, Hou Wang, Jilun Xing, Hong Yang, Felipe Zanna, Yuan Zeng, Fan Zhang, and Hongyan Zhao. Michael Harrup from the Communications Department led the editorial team for the report, with production and editorial support from Christine Ebrahimzadeh and editorial assistance from Lucy Scott Morales, Linda Long, Lorraine Coffey, Gregg Forte, and EEI Communications.

    The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff members from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 28, 2016. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.

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