World Economic Outlook, April 2014 : Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven

Front Matter

Front Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
April 2014
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    World Economic and Financial Surveys

    WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

    April 2014

    Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven

    ©2014 International Monetary Fund

    Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar

    Composition: Maryland Composition

    Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Joint Bank-Fund Library

    World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)

    World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. — Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1980–

    v.; 28 cm. — (1981–1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365). — (1986–: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877)

    Semiannual. Some issues also have thematic titles.

    Has occasional updates, 1984–

    ISSN (print) 0256–6877

    ISSN (online) 1564–5215

    1. Economic development — Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting — Periodicals. 3. Economic policy — Periodicals. 4. International economic relations — Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund). III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.

    HC10.80

    ISBN 978-1-48430-834-9 (paper)

    978-1-47551-576-3 (PDF)

    978-1-47557-193-6 (ePub)

    978-1-48432-630-5 (Mobi)

    Disclaimer: The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not represent official IMF policy or the views of the IMF Executive Directors or their national authorities.

    Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook—Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven (Washington, April 2014).

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    Contents

    • Online Tables

      • Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita

      • Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP

      • Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing

      • Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices

      • Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators

      • Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Excluding Social Security Schemes

      • Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances

      • Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance

      • Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

      • Table B10. Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates

      • Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates

      • Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services

      • Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods

      • Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods

      • Table B15. Advanced Economies: Current Account Transactions

      • Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balances on Current Account

      • Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Current Account Transactions

      • Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Current Account Transactions

      • Table B19. Summary of Balance of Payments, Financial Flows, and External Financing

      • Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Balance of Payments and External Financing

      • Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Balance of Payments and External Financing

      • Table B22. Summary of External Debt and Debt Service

      • Table B23. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity and Type of Creditor

      • Table B24. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt by Maturity and Type of Creditor

      • Table B25. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP

      • Table B26. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios

      • Table B27. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators

    Editor’s note

    (April 8, 2014)

    Note 7 in Figure 1.3 on page 4 has been corrected to remove Colombia from the list of upward pressure countries.

    (April 10, 2014)

    Panel 3 of Figure 4.2 (page 118) and panel 2 of Figure 4.6 (page 122) have been replaced to correct errors in the underlying data.

    (April 11, 2014)

    Panel 1 of Figure 1.3 has been revised to change the underlying data for the October 2013 WEO projections for the United States from overnight swap rates to federal funds rate futures.

    (April 21, 2014)

    In Statistical Table A15 on page 204, the first instance of “Emerging and Developing Europe” has been corrected to read “Emerging and Developing Asia.”

    Assumptions and Conventions

    A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during January 31–February 28, 2014, except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $104.17 a barrel in 2014 and $97.92 a barrel in 2015 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2014 and 0.8 percent in 2015; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average 0.3 percent in 2014 and 0.4 percent in 2015; and that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield on average 0.2 percent in 2014 and 2015. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available generally through March 24, 2014.

    The following conventions are used throughout the WEO:

    • … to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;

    • – between years or months (for example, 2013–14 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;

    • / between years or months (for example, 2013/14) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.

    “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.

    “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

    For some countries, the figures for 2013 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns.

    Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Table F in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the reference periods for each country.

    Projections for Ukraine are excluded due to the ongoing crisis.

    The consumer price projections for Argentina are excluded because of a structural break in the data. Please refer to note 6 in Table A7 for further details.

    Korea’s real GDP series is based on the reference year 2005. This does not reflect the revised national accounts released on March 26, 2014, after the WEO was finalized for publication. These comprehensive revisions include implementing the 2008 System of National Accounts and updating the reference year to 2010. As a result of these revisions, real GDP growth in 2013 was revised up to 3 percent from 2.8 percent (which is the figure included in Tables 2.3 and A2).

    On January 1, 2014, Latvia became the 18th country to join the euro area. Data for Latvia are not included in the euro area aggregates, because the database has not yet been converted to euros, but are included in data aggregated for advanced economies.

    Starting with the April 2014 WEO, the Central and Eastern Europe and Emerging Europe regions have been renamed Emerging and Developing Europe. The Developing Asia region has been renamed Emerging and Developing Asia.

    Cape Verde is now called Cabo Verde.

    As in the October 2013 WEO, data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.

    If no source is listed on tables and figures, data are drawn from the WEO database.

    When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size.

    Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding.

    As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

    Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteristics or region. Unless noted otherwise, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of the weighted group data.

    The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

    Further Information and Data

    This version of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) is available in full through the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf.org) and the IMF website (www.imf.org). Accompanying the publication on the IMF website is a larger compilation of data from the WEO database than is included in the report itself, including files containing the series most frequently requested by readers. These files may be downloaded for use in a variety of software packages.

    The data appearing in the World Economic Outlook are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of the WEO exercises. The historical data and projections are based on the information gathered by the IMF country desk officers in the context of their missions to IMF member countries and through their ongoing analysis of the evolving situation in each country. Historical data are updated on a continual basis as more information becomes available, and structural breaks in data are often adjusted to produce smooth series with the use of splicing and other techniques. IMF staff estimates continue to serve as proxies for historical series when complete information is unavailable. As a result, WEO data can differ from those in other sources with official data, including the IMF’s International Financial Statistics.

    The WEO data and metadata provided are “as is” and “as available,” and every effort is made to ensure, but not guarantee, their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, there is a concerted effort to correct them as appropriate and feasible. Corrections and revisions made after publication are incorporated into the electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf.org) and on the IMF website (www.imf.org). All substantive changes are listed in detail in the online tables of contents.

    For details on the terms and conditions for usage of the WEO database, please refer to the IMF Copyright and Usage website (www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

    Inquiries about the content of the World Economic Outlook and the WEO database should be sent by mail, fax, or online forum (telephone inquiries cannot be accepted):

    World Economic Studies Division

    Research Department

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    Preface

    The analysis and projections contained in the World Economic Outlook are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries, of developments in international financial markets, and of the global economic system. The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—together with the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department; the Monetary and Capital Markets Department; and the Fiscal Affairs Department.

    The analysis in this report was coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Olivier Blanchard, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The project was directed by Thomas Helbling, Division Chief, Research Department, and Jörg Decressin, Deputy Director, Research Department.

    The primary contributors to this report are Abdul Abiad, Aseel Almansour, Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, John Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Davide Furceri, Andrea Pescatori, Marco E. Terrones, and Juan Yepez Albornoz.

    Other contributors include Ali Alichi, Angana Banerji, Benjamin Beckers, Alberto Behar, Sami Ben Naceur, Patrick Blagrave, Kevin Clinton, Alexander Culiuc, Joshua Felman, Emilio Fernandez Corugedo, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Roberto Guimarães-Filho, Keiko Honjo, Benjamin Hunt, Dora Iakova, Deniz Igan, Gregorio Impavido, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Lusine Lusinyan, Andre Meier, Pritha Mitra, Dirk Muir, Jean-Marc Natal, Marco Pani, Mahvash Qureshi, Jesmin Rahman, Marina Rousset, Damiano Sandri, John Simon, Serhat Solmaz, Shane Streifel, Yan Sun, Li Tang, Boqun Wang, and Shengzu Wang.

    Gohar Abajyan, Gavin Asdorian, Shan Chen, Tingyun Chen, Angela Espiritu, Madelyn Estrada, Sinem Kilic Celik, Mitko Grigorov, Cleary A. Haines, Pavel Lukyantsau, Olivia Ma, Tim Mahedy, Anayo Osueke, Katherine Pan, Sidra Rehman, Daniel Rivera Greenwood, Carlos Rondon, Yang Yang, and Fan Zhang provided research assistance. Luis Cubeddu provided comments and suggestions. Mahnaz Hemmati, Toh Kuan, Emory Oakes, and Richard Watson provided technical support. Skeeter Mathurin and Anduriña Espinoza-Wasil were responsible for word processing. Linda Griffin Kean and Michael Harrup of the Communications Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication with assistance from Lucy Scott Morales and Sherrie Brown. The Core Data Management team from the IMF’s IT department and external consultant Pavel Pimenov provided additional technical support.

    The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff members from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 21, 2014. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.

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