World Economic Outlook, October 2013 : Transition and Tensions

Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
October 2013
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    World Economic Outlook: Selected Topics

    World Economic Outlook Archives

    World Economic Outlook: Advancing Structural ReformsApril 2004
    World Economic Outlook: The Global Demographic TransitionSeptember 2004
    World Economic Outlook: Globalization and External BalancesApril 2005
    World Economic Outlook: Building InstitutionsSeptember 2005
    World Economic Outlook: Globalization and InflationApril 2006
    World Economic Outlook: Financial Systems and Economic CyclesSeptember 2006
    World Economic Outlook: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global EconomyApril 2007
    World Economic Outlook: Globalization and InequalityOctober 2007
    World Economic Outlook: Housing and the Business CycleApril 2008
    World Economic Outlook: Financial Stress, Downturns, and RecoveriesOctober 2008
    World Economic Outlook: Crisis and RecoveryApril 2009
    World Economic Outlook: Sustaining the RecoveryOctober 2009
    World Economic Outlook: Rebalancing GrowthApril 2010
    World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk, and RebalancingOctober 2010
    World Economic Outlook: Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery—Unemployment, Commodities, and Capital FlowsApril 2011
    World Economic Outlook: Slowing Growth, Rising RisksSeptember 2011
    World Economic Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers RemainApril 2012
    World Economic Outlook: Coping with High Debt and Sluggish GrowthOctober 2012
    World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities, RisksApril 2013
    World Economic Outlook: Transitions and TensionsOctober 2013

    I. Methodology—Aggregation, Modeling, and Forecasting

    The Effects of Tax Cuts in a Global Fiscal ModelApril 2004, Box 2.2
    How Accurate Are the Forecasts in the World Economic Outlook?April 2006, Box 1.3
    Drawing the Line Between Personal and Corporate SavingsApril 2006, Box 4.1
    Measuring Inequality: Conceptual, Methodological, and Measurement IssuesOctober 2007, Box 4.1
    New Business Cycle Indices for Latin America: A Historical ReconstructionOctober 2007, Box 5.3
    Implications of New PPP Estimates for Measuring Global GrowthApril 2008, Appendix 1.1
    Measuring Output GapsOctober 2008, Box 1.3
    Assessing and Communicating Risks to the Global OutlookOctober 2008, Appendix 1.1
    Fan Chart for Global GrowthApril 2009, Appendix 1.2
    Indicators for Tracking GrowthOctober 2010, Appendix 1.2
    Inferring Potential Output from Noisy Data: The Global Projection Model ViewOctober 2010, Box 1.3
    Uncoordinated RebalancingOctober 2010, Box 1.4
    World Economic Outlook Downside ScenariosApril 2011, Box 1.2

    II. Historical Surveys

    External Imbalances Then and NowApril 2005, Box 3.1
    Long-Term Interest Rates from a Historical PerspectiveApril 2006, Box 1.1
    Recycling Petrodollars in the 1970sApril 2006, Box 2.2
    Historical Perspective on Growth and the Current AccountOctober 2008, Box 6.3
    A Historical Perspective on International Financial CrisesOctober 2009, Box 4.1
    The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: 100 Years of Dealing with Public Debt OverhangsOctober 2012, Chapter 3

    III. Economic Growth—Sources and Patterns

    Fostering Structural Reforms in Industrial CountriesApril 2004, Chapter 3
    How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy?September 2004, Chapter 3
    HIV/AIDS: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal ConsequencesSeptember 2004, Box 3.3
    Implications of Demographic Change for Health Care SystemsSeptember 2004, Box 3.4
    Workers’ Remittances and Economic DevelopmentApril 2005, Chapter 2
    Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing CountriesApril 2005, Chapter 2
    How Does Macroeconomic Instability Stifle Sub-Saharan African Growth?April 2005, Box 1.5
    How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use Their Oil Revenues?April 2005, Box 1.6
    Why Is Volatility Harmful?April 2005, Box 2.3
    Building InstitutionsSeptember 2005, Chapter 3
    Return on Investment in Industrial and Developing CountriesSeptember 2005, Box 2.2
    The Use of Specific Levers to Reduce CorruptionSeptember 2005, Box 3.2
    Examining the Impact of Unrequited Transfers on InstitutionsSeptember 2005, Box 3.3
    The Impact of Recent Housing Market Adjustments in Industrial CountriesApril 2006, Box 1.2
    Awash with Cash: Why Are Corporate Savings So High?April 2006, Chapter 4
    The Global Implications of an Avian Flu PandemicApril 2006, Appendix 1.2
    Asia Rising: Patterns of Economic Development and GrowthSeptember 2006, Chapter 3
    Japan’s Potential Output and Productivity GrowthSeptember 2006, Box 3.1
    The Evolution and Impact of Corporate Governance Quality in AsiaSeptember 2006, Box 3.2
    Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global EconomyApril 2007, Chapter 4
    Spillovers and International Business Cycle Synchronization: A Broader PerspectiveApril 2007, Box 4.3
    The Discounting DebateOctober 2007, Box 1.7
    Taxes versus Quantities under Uncertainty (Weitzman, 1974)October 2007, Box 1.8
    Experience with Emissions Trading in the European UnionOctober 2007, Box 1.9
    Climate Change: Economic Impact and Policy ResponsesOctober 2007, Appendix 1.2
    What Risks Do Housing Markets Pose for Global Growth?October 2007, Box 2.1
    The Changing Dynamics of the Global Business CycleOctober 2007, Chapter 5
    Major Economies and Fluctuations in Global GrowthOctober 2007, Box 5.1
    Improved Macroeconomic Performance—Good Luck or Good Policies?October 2007, Box 5.2
    House Prices: Corrections and ConsequencesOctober 2008, Box 1.2
    Global Business CyclesApril 2009, Box 1.1
    How Similar Is the Current Crisis to the Great Depression?April 2009, Box 3.1
    Is Credit a Vital Ingredient for Recovery? Evidence from Industry-Level DataApril 2009, Box 3.2
    From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?April 2009, Chapter 3
    What’s the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after Financial CrisesOctober 2009, Chapter 4
    Will the Recovery Be Jobless?October 2009, Box 1.3
    Unemployment Dynamics during Recessions and Recoveries: Okun’s Law and BeyondApril 2010, Chapter 3
    Does Slow Growth in Advanced Economies Necessarily Imply Slow Growth in Emerging Economies?October 2010, Box 1.1
    The Global Recovery: Where Do We Stand?April 2012, Box 1.2
    How Does Uncertainty Affect Economic Performance?October 2012, Box 1.3
    Resilience in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Will It Last?October 2012, Chapter 4
    Jobs and Growth: Can’t Have One without the Other?October 2012, Box 4.1
    Spillovers from Policy Uncertainty in the United States and EuropeApril 2013, Chapter 2, Spillover Feature
    Breaking through the Frontier: Can Today’s Dynamic Low-Income Countries Make It?April 2013, Chapter 4
    What Explains the Slowdown in the BRICS?October 2013, Box 1.2
    Dancing Together? Spillovers, Common Shocks, and the Role of Financial and Trade LinkagesOctober 2013, Chapter 3
    Output Synchronicity in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and in the Caucasus and Central AsiaOctober 2013, Box 3.1
    Spillovers from Changes in U.S. Monetary PolicyOctober 2013, Box 3.2

    IV. Inflation and Deflation and Commodity Markets

    Housing Markets in Industrial CountriesApril 2004, Box 1.2
    Is Global Inflation Coming Back?September 2004, Box 1.1
    What Explains the Recent Run-Up in House Prices?September 2004, Box 2.1
    Will the Oil Market Continue to Be Tight?April 2005, Chapter 4
    Should Countries Worry about Oil Price Fluctuations?April 2005, Box 4.1
    Data Quality in the Oil MarketApril 2005, Box 4.2
    Long-Term Inflation Expectations and CredibilitySeptember 2005, Box 4.2
    The Boom in Nonfuel Commodity Prices: Can It Last?September 2006, Chapter 5
    International Oil Companies and National Oil Companies in a Changing Oil Sector EnvironmentSeptember 2006, Box 1.4
    Commodity Price Shocks, Growth, and Financing in Sub-Saharan AfricaSeptember 2006, Box 2.2
    Has Speculation Contributed to Higher Commodity Prices?September 2006, Box 5.1
    Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Commodity PricesSeptember 2006, Box 5.2
    Recent Developments in Commodity MarketsSeptember 2006, Appendix 2.1
    Who Is Harmed by the Surge in Food Prices?October 2007, Box 1.1
    Refinery BottlenecksOctober 2007, Box 1.5
    Making the Most of BiofuelsOctober 2007, Box 1.6
    Commodity Market Developments and ProspectsApril 2008, Appendix 1.2
    Dollar Depreciation and Commodity PricesApril 2008, Box 1.4
    Why Hasn’t Oil Supply Responded to Higher Prices?April 2008, Box 1.5
    Oil Price BenchmarksApril 2008, Box 1.6
    Globalization, Commodity Prices, and Developing CountriesApril 2008, Chapter 5
    The Current Commodity Price Boom in PerspectiveApril 2008, Box 5.2
    Is Inflation Back? Commodity Prices and InflationOctober 2008, Chapter 3
    Does Financial Investment Affect Commodity Price Behavior?October 2008, Box 3.1
    Fiscal Responses to Recent Commodity Price Increases: An AssessmentOctober 2008, Box 3.2
    Monetary Policy Regimes and Commodity PricesOctober 2008, Box 3.3
    Assessing Deflation Risks in the G3 EconomiesApril 2009, Box 1.3
    Will Commodity Prices Rise Again when the Global Economy Recovers?April 2009, Box 1.5
    Commodity Market Developments and ProspectsApril 2009, Appendix 1.1
    Commodity Market Developments and ProspectsOctober 2009, Appendix 1.1
    What Do Options Markets Tell Us about Commodity Price Prospects?October 2009, Box 1.6
    What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?October 2009, Box 1.7
    How Unusual Is the Current Commodity Price Recovery?April 2010, Box 1.2
    Commodity Futures Price Curves and Cyclical Market AdjustmentApril 2010, Box 1.3
    Commodity Market Developments and ProspectsOctober 2010, Appendix 1.1
    Dismal Prospects for the Real Estate SectorOctober 2010, Box 1.2
    Have Metals Become More Scarce and What Does Scarcity Mean for Prices?October 2010, Box 1.5
    Commodity Market Developments and ProspectsApril 2011, Appendix 1.2
    Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global ImbalancesApril 2011, Chapter 3
    Life Cycle Constraints on Global Oil ProductionApril 2011, Box 3.1
    Unconventional Natural Gas: A Game Changer?April 2011, Box 3.2
    Short-Term Effects of Oil Shocks on Economic ActivityApril 2011, Box 3.3
    Low-Frequency Filtering for Extracting Business Cycle TrendsApril 2011, Appendix 3.1
    The Energy and Oil Empirical ModelsApril 2011, Appendix 3.2
    Commodity Market Developments and ProspectsSeptember 2011, Appendix 1.1
    Financial Investment, Speculation, and Commodity PricesSeptember 2011, Box 1.4
    Target What You Can Hit: Commodity Price Swings and Monetary PolicySeptember 2011, Chapter 3
    Commodity Market ReviewApril 2012, Chapter 1, Special Feature
    Commodity Price Swings and Commodity ExportersApril 2012, Chapter 4
    Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Low-Income CountriesApril 2012, Box 4.1
    Volatile Commodity Prices and the Development Challenge in Low-Income CountriesApril 2012, Box 4.2
    Commodity Market ReviewOctober 2012, Chapter 1, Special Feature
    Unconventional Energy in the United StatesOctober 2012, Box 1.4
    Food Supply Crunch: Who Is Most Vulnerable?October 2012, Box 1.5
    Commodity Market ReviewApril 2013, Chapter 1, Special Feature
    The Dog That Didn’t Bark: Has Inflation Been Muzzled or Was It Just Sleeping?April 2013, Chapter 3
    Does Inflation Targeting Still Make Sense with a Flatter Phillips Curve?April 2013, Box 3.1
    Commodity Market ReviewOctober 2013, Chapter 1, Special Feature
    Energy Booms and the Current Account: Cross-Country ExperienceOctober 2013, Box 1.SF.1
    Oil Price Drivers and the Narrowing WTI-Brent SpreadOctober 2013, Box 1.SF.2

    V. Fiscal Policy

    Has Fiscal Behavior Changed under the European Economic and Monetary Union?September 2004, Chapter 2
    Bringing Small Entrepreneurs into the Formal EconomySeptember 2004, Box 1.5
    HIV/AIDS: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal ConsequencesSeptember 2004, Box 3.3
    Implications of Demographic Change for Health Care SystemsSeptember 2004, Box 3.4
    Impact of Aging on Public Pension PlansSeptember 2004, Box 3.5
    How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use Their Oil Revenues?April 2005, Box 1.6
    Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic PoliciesApril 2005, Box 3.3
    Is Public Debt in Emerging Markets Still Too High?September 2005, Box 1.1
    Improved Emerging Market Fiscal Performance: Cyclical or Structural?September 2006, Box 2.1
    When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work?April 2008, Box 2.1
    Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical ToolOctober 2008, Chapter 5
    Differences in the Extent of Automatic Stabilizers and Their Relationship with Discretionary Fiscal PolicyOctober 2008, Box 5.1
    Why Is It So Hard to Determine the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus?October 2008, Box 5.2
    Have the U.S. Tax Cuts Been “TTT” [Timely, Temporary, and Targeted]?October 2008, Box 5.3
    Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal ConsolidationOctober 2010, Chapter 3
    Separated at Birth? The Twin Budget and Trade BalancesSeptember 2011, Chapter 4
    Are We Underestimating Short-Term Fiscal Multipliers?October 2012, Box 1.1
    The Implications of High Public Debt in Advanced EconomiesOctober 2012, Box 1.2
    The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: 100 Years of Dealing with Public Debt OverhangsOctober 2012, Chapter 3
    The Great Divergence of PoliciesApril 2013, Box 1.1
    Public Debt Overhang and Private Sector PerformanceApril 2013, Box 1.2

    VI. Monetary Policy, Financial Markets, and Flow of Funds

    Are Credit Booms in Emerging Markets a Concern?April 2004, Chapter 4
    How Do U.S. Interest and Exchange Rates Affect Emerging Markets’ Balance Sheets?April 2004, Box 2.1
    Does Financial Sector Development Help Economic Growth and Welfare?April 2004, Box 4.1
    Adjustable- or Fixed-Rate Mortgages: What Influences a Country’s Choices?September 2004, Box 2.2
    What Are the Risks from Low U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates?April 2005, Box 1.2
    Regulating RemittancesApril 2005, Box 2.2
    Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic PoliciesApril 2005, Box 3.3
    Monetary Policy in a Globalized WorldApril 2005, Box 3.4
    Does Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Markets?September 2005, Chapter 4
    A Closer Look at Inflation Targeting Alternatives: Money and Exchange Rate TargetsSeptember 2005, Box 4.1
    How Has Globalization Affected Inflation?April 2006, Chapter 3
    The Impact of Petrodollars on U.S. and Emerging Market Bond YieldsApril 2006, Box 2.3
    Globalization and Inflation in Emerging MarketsApril 2006, Box 3.1
    Globalization and Low Inflation in a Historical PerspectiveApril 2006, Box 3.2
    Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import PricesApril 2006, Box 3.3
    Trends in the Financial Sector’s Profits and SavingsApril 2006, Box 4.2
    How Do Financial Systems Affect Economic Cycles?September 2006, Chapter 4
    Financial Leverage and Debt DeflationSeptember 2006, Box 4.1
    Financial Linkages and SpilloversApril 2007, Box 4.1
    Macroeconomic Conditions in Industrial Countries and Financial Flows to Emerging MarketsApril 2007, Box 4.2
    Macroeconomic Implications of Recent Market Turmoil: Patterns from Previous EpisodesOctober 2007, Box 1.2
    What Is Global Liquidity?October 2007, Box 1.4
    The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary PolicyApril 2008, Chapter 3
    Is There a Credit Crunch?April 2008, Box 1.1
    Assessing Vulnerabilities to Housing Market CorrectionsApril 2008, Box 3.1
    Financial Stress and Economic DownturnsOctober 2008, Chapter 4
    Policies to Resolve Financial System Stress and Restore Sound Financial IntermediationOctober 2008, Box 4.1
    The Latest Bout of Financial Distress: How Does It Change the Global Outlook?October 2008, Box 1.1
    How Vulnerable Are Nonfinancial Firms?April 2009, Box 1.2
    The Case of Vanishing Household WealthApril 2009, Box 2.1
    Impact of Foreign Bank Ownership during Home-Grown CrisesApril 2009, Box 4.1
    A Financial Stress Index for Emerging EconomiesApril 2009, Appendix 4.1
    Financial Stress in Emerging Economies: Econometric AnalysisApril 2009, Appendix 4.2
    How Linkages Fuel the FireApril 2009, Chapter 4
    Lessons for Monetary Policy from Asset Price FluctuationsOctober 2009, Chapter 3
    Were Financial Markets in Emerging Economies More Resilient than in Past Crises?October 2009, Box 1.2
    Risks from Real Estate MarketsOctober 2009, Box 1.4
    Financial Conditions IndicesApril 2011, Appendix 1.1
    House Price Busts in Advanced Economies: Repercussions for Global Financial MarketsApril 2011, Box 1.1
    International Spillovers and Macroeconomic PolicymakingApril 2011, Box 1.3
    Credit Boom-Bust Cycles: Their Triggers and Policy ImplicationsSeptember 2011, Box 1.2
    Are Equity Price Drops Harbingers of Recession?September 2011, Box 1.3
    Cross-Border Spillovers from Euro Area Bank DeleveragingApril 2012, Chapter 2, Spillover Feature
    The Financial Transmission of Stress in the Global EconomyOctober 2012, Chapter 2, Spillover Feature
    The Great Divergence of PoliciesApril 2013, Box 1.1
    Taper Talks: What to Expect When the United States Is TighteningOctober 2013, Box 1.1

    VII. Labor Markets, Poverty, and Inequality

    The Globalization of LaborApril 2007, Chapter 5
    Emigration and Trade: How Do They Affect Developing Countries?April 2007, Box 5.1
    Labor Market Reforms in the Euro Area and the Wage-Unemployment Trade-OffOctober 2007, Box 2.2
    Globalization and InequalityOctober 2007, Chapter 4
    The Dualism between Temporary and Permanent Contracts: Measures, Effects, and Policy IssuesApril 2010, Box 3.1
    Short-Time Work ProgramsApril 2010, Box 3.2
    Slow Recovery to Nowhere? A Sectoral View of Labor Markets in Advanced EconomiesSeptember 2011, Box 1.1
    The Labor Share in Europe and the United States during and after the Great RecessionApril 2012, Box 1.1
    Jobs and Growth: Can’t Have One without the Other?October 2012, Box 4.1

    VIII. Exchange Rate Issues

    The Effects of a Falling DollarApril 2004, Box 1.1
    Learning to Float: The Experience of Emerging Market Countries since the Early 1990sSeptember 2004, Chapter 2
    How Did Chile, India, and Brazil Learn to Float?September 2004, Box 2.3
    Foreign Exchange Market Development and InterventionSeptember 2004, Box 2.4
    How Emerging Market Countries May Be Affected by External ShocksSeptember 2006, Box 1.3
    Exchange Rates and the Adjustment of External ImbalancesApril 2007, Chapter 3
    Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices and External AdjustmentApril 2007, Box 3.3
    Depreciation of the U.S. Dollar: Causes and ConsequencesApril 2008, Box 1.2
    Lessons from the Crisis: On the Choice of Exchange Rate RegimeApril 2010, Box 1.1

    IX. External Payments, Trade, Capital Movements, and Foreign Debt

    Risks to the Multilateral Trading SystemApril 2004, Box 1.3
    Is the Doha Round Back on Track?September 2004, Box 1.3
    Regional Trade Agreements and Integration: The Experience with NAFTASeptember 2004, Box 1.4
    Trade and Financial Integration in Europe: Five Years after the Euro’s IntroductionSeptember 2004, Box 2.5
    Globalization and External ImbalancesApril 2005, Chapter 3
    The Ending of Global Textile Trade QuotasApril 2005, Box 1.3
    What Progress Has Been Made in Implementing Policies to Reduce Global Imbalances?April 2005, Box 1.4
    Measuring a Country’s Net External PositionApril 2005, Box 3.2
    Global Imbalances: A Saving and Investment PerspectiveSeptember 2005, Chapter 2
    Impact of Demographic Change on Saving, Investment, and Current Account BalancesSeptember 2005, Box 2.3
    How Will Global Imbalances Adjust?September 2005, Appendix 1.2
    Oil Prices and Global ImbalancesApril 2006, Chapter 2
    How Much Progress Has Been Made in Addressing Global Imbalances?April 2006, Box 1.4
    The Doha Round after the Hong Kong SAR MeetingsApril 2006, Box 1.5
    Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries: A Long-Term PerspectiveSeptember 2006, Box 1.1
    How Will Global Imbalances Adjust?September 2006, Box 2.1
    External Sustainability and Financial IntegrationApril 2007, Box 3.1
    Large and Persistent Current Account ImbalancesApril 2007, Box 3.2
    Multilateral Consultation on Global ImbalancesOctober 2007, Box 1.3
    Managing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Large and Volatile Aid FlowsOctober 2007, Box 2.3
    Managing Large Capital InflowsOctober 2007, Chapter 3
    Can Capital Controls Work?October 2007, Box 3.1
    Multilateral Consultation on Global Imbalances: Progress ReportApril 2008, Box 1.3
    How Does the Globalization of Trade and Finance Affect Growth? Theory and EvidenceApril 2008, Box 5.1
    Divergence of Current Account Balances across Emerging EconomiesOctober 2008, Chapter 6
    Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting CountriesOctober 2008, Box 6.1
    Sovereign Wealth Funds: Implications for Global Financial MarketsOctober 2008, Box 6.2
    Global Imbalances and the Financial CrisisApril 2009, Box 1.4
    Trade Finance and Global Trade: New Evidence from Bank SurveysOctober 2009, Box 1.1
    From Deficit to Surplus: Recent Shifts in Global Current AccountsOctober 2009, Box 1.5
    Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account SurplusesApril 2010, Chapter 4
    Emerging Asia: Responding to Capital InflowsOctober 2010, Box 2.1
    Latin America-5: Riding Another Wave of Capital InflowsOctober 2010, Box 2.2
    Do Financial Crises Have Lasting Effects on Trade?October 2010, Chapter 4
    Unwinding External Imbalances in the European Union PeripheryApril 2011, Box 2.1
    International Capital Flows: Reliable or Fickle?April 2011, Chapter 4
    External Liabilities and Crisis Tipping PointsSeptember 2011, Box 1.5
    The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro AreaApril 2013, Box 1.3
    External Rebalancing in the Euro AreaOctober 2013, Box 1.3
    The Yin and Yang of Capital Flow Management: Balancing Capital Inflows with Capital OutflowsOctober 2013, Chapter 4
    Simulating Vulnerability to International Capital Market ConditionsOctober 2013, Box 4.1

    X. Regional Issues

    Is Emerging Asia Becoming an Engine of World Growth?April 2004, Box 1.4
    What Works in AfricaApril 2004, Box 1.5
    Economic Integration and Structural Reforms: The European ExperienceApril 2004, Box 3.4
    What Are the Risks of Slower Growth in China?September 2004, Box 1.2
    Governance Challenges and Progress in Sub-Saharan AfricaSeptember 2004, Box 1.6
    The Indian Ocean Tsunami: Impact on South Asian EconomiesApril 2005, Box 1.1
    Workers’ Remittances and Emigration in the CaribbeanApril 2005, Box 2.1
    What Explains Divergent External Sector Performance in the Euro Area?September 2005, Box 1.3
    Pressures Mount for African Cotton ProducersSeptember 2005, Box 1.5
    Is Investment in Emerging Asia Too Low?September 2005, Box 2.4
    Developing Institutions to Reflect Local Conditions: The Example of Ownership Transformation in China versus Central and Eastern EuropeSeptember 2005, Box 3.1
    How Rapidly Are Oil Exporters Spending Their Revenue Gains?April 2006, Box 2.1
    EMU: 10 Years OnOctober 2008, Box 2.1
    Vulnerabilities in Emerging EconomiesApril 2009, Box 2.2
    East-West Linkages and Spillovers in EuropeApril 2012, Box 2.1
    The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro AreaApril 2013, Box 1.3

    XI. Country-Specific Analyses

    How Will the U.S. Budget Deficit Affect the Rest of the World?April 2004, Chapter 2
    China’s Emergence and Its Impact on the Global EconomyApril 2004, Chapter 2
    Can China Sustain Its Rapid Output Growth?April 2004, Box 2.3
    Quantifying the International Impact of China’s WTO AccessionApril 2004, Box 2.4
    Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: New Zealand’s ExperienceApril 2004, Box 3.1
    Structural Reforms in the United Kingdom during the 1980sApril 2004, Box 3.2
    The Netherlands: How the Interaction of Labor Market Reforms and Tax Cuts Led to Strong Employment GrowthApril 2004, Box 3.3
    Why Is the U.S. International Income Account Still in the Black, and Will This Last?September, 2005, Box 1.2
    Is India Becoming an Engine for Global Growth?September, 2005, Box 1.4
    Saving and Investment in ChinaSeptember, 2005, Box 2.1
    China’s GDP Revision: What Does It Mean for China and the Global Economy?April 2006, Box 1.6
    What Do Country Studies of the Impact of Globalization on Inequality Tell Us? Examples from Mexico, China, and IndiaOctober 2007, Box 4.2
    Japan after the Plaza AccordApril 2010, Box 4.1
    Taiwan Province of China in the Late 1980sApril 2010, Box 4.2
    Did the Plaza Accord Cause Japan’s Lost Decades?April 2011, Box 1.4
    Where Is China’s External Surplus Headed?April 2012, Box 1.3
    The U.S. Home Owners’ Loan CorporationApril 2012, Box 3.1
    Household Debt Restructuring in IcelandApril 2012, Box 3.2
    Abenomics: Risks after Early Success?October 2013, Box 1.4

    XII. Special Topics

    Climate Change and the Global EconomyApril 2008, Chapter 4
    Rising Car Ownership in Emerging Economies: Implications for Climate ChangeApril 2008, Box 4.1
    South Asia: Illustrative Impact of an Abrupt Climate ShockApril 2008, Box 4.2
    Macroeconomic Policies for Smoother Adjustment to Abrupt Climate ShocksApril 2008, Box 4.3
    Catastrophe Insurance and Bonds: New Instruments to Hedge Extreme Weather RisksApril 2008, Box 4.4
    Recent Emission-Reduction Policy InitiativesApril 2008, Box 4.5
    Complexities in Designing Domestic Mitigation PoliciesApril 2008, Box 4.6
    Table B1.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita(Percent)
    Averages1Projections
    1995–20042005–142005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Unemployment Rate2
    Advanced Economies6.67.26.35.85.55.88.08.37.98.08.18.0
    United States5.17.15.14.64.65.89.39.68.98.17.67.4
    Euro Area9.69.99.28.57.67.69.610.110.211.412.312.2
    Germany9.07.511.210.28.87.67.77.16.05.55.65.5
    France9.79.69.39.28.47.89.59.79.610.311.011.1
    Italy10.08.87.76.86.16.87.88.48.410.712.512.4
    Spain15.817.69.28.58.311.318.020.121.725.026.926.7
    Netherlands4.54.95.34.43.63.13.74.54.45.37.17.4
    Belgium8.47.98.48.27.57.17.88.27.27.68.78.6
    Austria4.24.65.24.84.43.84.84.44.24.34.84.8
    Greece10.515.29.98.98.37.79.512.517.724.227.026.0
    Portugal5.711.57.67.78.07.69.510.812.715.717.417.7
    Finland11.07.78.47.76.96.48.28.47.87.88.07.9
    Ireland7.110.24.44.54.76.412.013.914.614.713.713.3
    Slovak Republic16.113.416.413.511.29.612.114.513.714.014.414.4
    Slovenia6.87.36.56.04.94.45.97.38.28.910.310.9
    Luxembourg3.05.34.14.24.24.25.45.85.76.16.67.0
    Estonia10.79.37.95.94.75.513.816.912.510.28.37.0
    Cyprus3.78.55.34.53.93.65.46.37.911.917.019.5
    Malta6.76.67.36.96.56.16.96.96.56.36.46.3
    Japan4.44.44.44.13.84.05.15.14.64.44.24.3
    United Kingdom6.26.84.85.45.45.67.57.98.08.07.77.5
    Canada8.17.16.86.36.16.28.38.07.57.37.17.1
    Korea3.93.43.73.53.33.23.73.73.43.23.23.2
    Australia7.15.15.14.84.44.35.65.25.15.25.66.0
    Taiwan Province of China3.54.44.13.93.94.15.95.24.44.24.24.2
    Sweden7.57.57.67.06.16.28.38.67.88.08.07.7
    Hong Kong SAR5.14.05.64.84.03.55.24.33.43.33.23.1
    Switzerland3.43.23.83.32.82.63.73.52.82.93.23.2
    Singapore2.62.43.12.72.12.23.02.22.02.02.12.3
    Czech Republic6.86.77.97.15.34.46.77.36.77.07.47.5
    Norway4.03.34.63.42.52.63.23.63.33.23.33.3
    Israel10.88.411.210.59.27.79.48.37.16.96.86.8
    Denmark5.35.94.83.93.83.56.17.57.67.57.17.1
    New Zealand6.05.33.83.83.74.26.26.56.56.96.05.3
    Iceland3.04.52.11.31.01.68.08.17.45.85.14.6
    San Marino4.63.63.33.03.14.54.95.56.66.15.5
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies6.36.96.35.85.55.98.08.27.77.47.37.3
    Growth in Employment
    Advanced Economies1.00.51.41.61.40.5–2.1–0.10.60.70.40.7
    United States1.20.51.81.91.1−0.5−3.8−0.60.61.81.11.4
    Euro Area1.60.21.11.61.80.8−1.8−0.50.3−0.7–0.80.1
    Germany0.30.7−0.10.61.71.30.10.51.41.10.30.1
    France1.10.30.61.01.40.6−1.20.10.30.10.10.3
    Italy1.00.20.71.81.00.8−1.6−0.60.4−0.3–1.10.6
    Spain3.7−0.85.64.13.1−0.5−6.8−2.3−1.9−4.5–3.9–0.7
    Japan−0.2−0.10.40.50.6−0.3−1.5−0.3−0.1−0.30.6–0.4
    United Kingdom1.10.61.00.90.70.7−1.60.20.51.21.01.0
    Canada2.01.21.31.82.41.7−1.61.41.51.21.31.0
    Other Advanced Economies31.31.41.91.92.11.7−0.31.21.81.51.01.1
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies0.80.41.01.31.10.1−2.3−0.20.51.00.70.7
    Growth in Real GDP per Capita
    Advanced Economies2.10.82.12.32.0–0.7–4.12.51.10.90.71.5
    United States2.30.72.41.70.8−1.2−3.61.71.12.00.81.7
    Euro Area1.80.41.12.72.4−0.2−4.71.71.3−0.9–0.60.8
    Germany1.21.50.94.03.51.0−4.84.03.40.70.71.6
    France1.70.31.11.71.6−0.6−3.71.21.5−0.5–0.30.5
    Italy1.5−0.9−0.11.71.0−2.0−6.21.2−0.1−2.7–2.10.5
    Spain2.9−0.21.92.51.6−0.7−4.5−0.5−0.1−1.7–1.10.4
    Japan0.90.81.31.62.1−1.1−5.54.7−0.52.22.21.5
    United Kingdom3.00.32.62.22.7−1.4−5.80.90.4−0.60.61.1
    Canada2.30.72.21.60.90.0−3.92.21.40.60.61.2
    Other Advanced Economies33.12.23.53.84.00.5−2.15.02.30.91.42.3
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies1.90.71.81.91.5−0.9−4.42.31.01.20.71.4

    Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

    National definitions of unemployment may vary.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.

    Table B2.Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
    AverageProjections
    1995–200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142018
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies4.97.38.38.75.83.17.56.24.94.55.15.5
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe4.05.96.45.43.2−3.64.65.41.42.32.73.7
    Commonwealth of Independent States12.96.78.88.95.3−6.44.94.83.42.13.43.7
    Russia2.86.48.28.55.2−7.84.54.33.41.53.03.5
    Excluding Russia3.27.710.69.95.6−3.16.06.13.33.64.24.3
    Developing Asia7.19.510.311.57.37.79.87.86.46.36.56.7
    China9.211.312.714.29.69.210.49.37.77.67.37.0
    India6.29.39.39.83.98.510.56.33.23.85.16.7
    Excluding China and India4.15.75.96.44.92.36.95.06.25.25.65.7
    Latin America and the Caribbean2.54.75.65.74.2−1.26.04.62.92.73.13.7
    Brazil2.53.24.06.15.2−0.37.52.70.92.52.53.5
    Mexico2.43.25.03.11.2−4.55.14.03.61.23.03.8
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan4.66.06.75.95.02.85.23.94.62.33.64.4
    Middle East and North Africa4.65.56.85.95.03.05.53.94.62.13.84.4
    Sub-Saharan Africa4.56.36.47.15.72.65.65.54.95.06.05.7
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa4.67.26.98.26.93.36.15.95.46.07.06.3
    Analytical groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel3.86.88.07.55.3−1.25.14.84.82.44.04.3
    Nonfuel5.17.48.39.06.04.18.16.65.05.05.35.8
    Of Which, Primary Products4.25.56.26.66.02.06.85.55.45.55.55.4
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor3.96.06.66.74.31.66.85.13.33.44.05.0
    Of Which, Official Financing4.46.65.95.34.92.44.35.14.34.34.35.3
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2007–113.37.57.77.55.92.06.86.43.44.24.14.4
    Other Groups
    Heavily Indebted Poor Countries5.15.75.96.25.94.65.95.45.65.66.06.0
    Memorandum
    Real GDP per Capita
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies3.66.17.07.44.52.06.45.23.93.54.14.5
    Central and Eastern Europe3.55.56.15.12.8−4.04.25.01.01.52.33.4
    Commonwealth of Independent States13.27.09.19.15.3−6.64.64.93.52.13.43.8
    Developing Asia5.88.59.410.56.46.88.96.95.55.55.65.8
    Latin America and the Caribbean1.13.44.34.42.9−2.44.33.41.81.62.02.7
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan2.32.93.02.20.90.23.61.72.30.21.52.3
    Middle East and North Africa2.32.32.91.91.00.34.01.72.20.11.72.2
    Sub-Saharan Africa2.24.14.14.33.50.53.53.42.62.73.73.4

    Georgia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

    Table B3.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
    AveragesProjections
    1995–20042005–142005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Hourly Earnings1
    Advanced Economies3.52.63.42.93.43.12.32.02.32.11.92.7
    United States4.12.73.82.43.92.73.42.41.31.92.02.9
    Euro area3.22.22.92.73.33.62.80.82.12.10.81.1
    Germany2.82.32.12.62.62.73.3–0.72.94.11.51.6
    France2.82.03.63.53.83.01.11.01.01.01.01.0
    Italy2.92.62.83.13.05.02.03.42.82.00.91.2
    Spain4.02.94.34.03.84.85.11.43.01.80.70.4
    Japan0.80.81.20.40.01.4−1.2−0.62.30.30.63.4
    United Kingdom4.12.93.75.13.53.01.83.81.12.32.32.3
    Canada2.92.84.75.12.82.82.6−0.55.02.41.32.4
    Other Advanced Economies25.54.34.65.15.44.71.25.04.83.74.04.2
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies3.22.33.22.63.12.72.31.61.81.91.62.6
    Productivity1,3
    Advanced Economies3.71.93.92.93.3–0.9–3.77.91.81.11.21.6
    United States4.62.14.80.93.9−0.70.26.31.01.82.11.2
    Euro area3.01.33.43.93.1−1.9−7.08.13.2−0.10.00.7
    Germany3.12.05.88.55.5−3.6−15.015.55.4−0.40.01.5
    France4.00.95.03.02.7−0.8−6.52.72.4−0.10.10.7
    Italy0.60.31.62.40.4−1.9−6.26.81.0−1.30.30.5
    Spain3.33.21.51.6−0.1−1.15.012.05.95.41.90.3
    Japan2.9−0.11.92.82.2−4.0−15.312.4−1.51.1–1.03.2
    United Kingdom3.02.24.95.03.2−0.1−4.96.81.61.91.91.9
    Canada1.81.23.62.60.51.5−3.34.32.20.4–1.01.0
    Other Advanced Economies24.23.53.86.23.82.30.58.93.60.72.12.9
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies3.61.64.22.53.3−1.4−4.97.81.31.11.11.5
    Unit Labor Costs
    Advanced Economies–0.10.8–0.50.00.14.16.7–5.30.51.00.71.1
    United States−0.50.6−1.01.60.13.43.3−3.70.40.1–0.11.8
    Euro area0.20.9−0.5−1.10.25.610.5−6.7−1.02.20.80.4
    Germany−0.20.2−3.5−5.5−2.86.621.5−14.0−2.44.51.50.1
    France−1.21.1−1.30.51.13.88.1−1.6−1.41.10.90.3
    Italy2.32.31.20.72.67.08.8−3.21.93.30.60.7
    Spain0.7−0.22.82.43.96.00.1−9.4−2.7−3.4–1.20.1
    Japan−2.10.8−0.7−2.4−2.25.716.7−11.63.9−0.81.50.2
    United Kingdom41.10.7−1.20.20.23.07.0−2.8−0.50.40.40.4
    Canada1.11.71.12.42.31.26.1−4.62.71.92.31.4
    Other Advanced Economies21.30.90.6−0.91.52.40.8−3.11.43.01.81.3
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies−0.40.8−1.00.1−0.24.28.1−5.70.60.80.61.1

    The group composites are computed if at least 85 percent of the share of group weights is represented.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.

    Refers to labor productivity, measured as the ratio of hourly compensation to unit labor costs.

    Data refer to unit wage cost.

    Table B4.Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
    AverageProjections
    1995–200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142018
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies13.05.95.76.59.25.25.97.16.16.25.74.8
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe31.15.95.96.08.14.75.35.35.84.13.53.6
    Commonwealth of Independent States139.012.19.59.715.611.27.210.16.56.55.96.0
    Russia38.312.79.79.014.111.76.98.45.16.75.75.5
    Excluding Russia41.110.68.911.619.410.27.914.19.96.06.47.1
    Developing Asia4.93.74.25.37.43.05.36.34.75.04.74.0
    China3.01.81.54.85.9−0.73.35.42.62.73.03.0
    India6.24.46.76.29.112.410.48.410.410.98.96.7
    Excluding China and India7.57.28.25.99.73.34.96.34.55.35.34.0
    Latin America and the Caribbean13.06.25.35.47.95.95.96.65.96.76.55.1
    Brazil12.96.94.23.65.74.95.06.65.46.35.84.5
    Mexico14.84.03.64.05.15.34.23.44.13.63.03.0
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan7.07.18.210.312.27.46.99.710.711.710.07.9
    Middle East and North Africa7.16.98.210.612.46.36.59.210.812.310.38.2
    Sub-Saharan Africa16.48.77.16.412.99.47.49.39.06.96.35.5
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa23.38.88.36.314.29.46.711.29.66.25.95.1
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel23.610.19.410.414.39.07.89.89.111.39.67.4
    Nonfuel10.54.94.85.68.04.45.46.65.45.14.94.3
    Of Which, Primary Products12.35.15.64.610.15.34.66.96.76.05.74.3
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies13.46.16.36.19.27.26.77.37.16.76.25.2
    Of Which, Official Financing12.07.67.28.212.79.17.711.310.57.57.15.4
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2007–1114.87.89.18.011.56.38.011.811.89.08.77.5
    Other Groups
    Heavily Indebted Poor Countries13.58.87.77.614.68.06.611.711.08.27.25.3
    Memorandum
    Median
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies5.85.46.06.210.33.84.35.64.64.44.54.0
    Central and Eastern Europe11.03.53.84.68.73.42.84.03.32.32.32.5
    Commonwealth of Independent States129.29.98.810.514.76.77.28.44.86.96.35.7
    Developing Asia4.94.54.84.88.94.44.05.44.34.03.94.4
    Latin America and the Caribbean5.94.94.95.88.52.93.85.54.13.44.03.3
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan3.35.25.46.111.22.84.45.04.94.24.54.1
    Middle East and North Africa3.13.84.95.711.22.84.24.94.93.84.04.0
    Sub-Saharan Africa6.46.06.96.410.66.74.36.06.35.55.75.0

    Georgia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

    Table B5.Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators(Percent)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Advanced Economies
    Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing1–2.2–1.4–1.1–3.2–7.5–6.6–5.6–5.0–3.8–3.0
    United States−2.7−1.8−2.2−5.6−11.7−10.0−9.0−7.5–5.1–4.4
    Euro Area−2.3−1.6−1.1−2.2−5.1−5.2−3.5−3.3–2.5–2.0
    Japan−4.3−4.0−2.0−5.1−8.0−7.2−8.0−8.6–7.8–5.0
    Other Advanced Economies20.20.81.20.1−3.4−2.7−1.7−1.1–1.2–0.9
    General Government Net Lending/Borrowing1–2.4–1.4–1.1–3.5–8.8–7.7–6.4–5.9–4.5–3.5
    United States−3.1−2.0−2.7−6.5−12.9−10.8−9.7−8.3–5.8–4.6
    Euro Area−2.5−1.3−0.7−2.1−6.4−6.2−4.2−3.7–3.1–2.5
    Japan−4.8−3.7−2.1−4.1−10.4−9.3−9.9−10.1–9.5–6.8
    Other Advanced Economies20.31.01.2−0.3−4.5−3.6−2.4−2.4–1.9–1.6
    General Government Structural Balance3–3.0–2.3–2.3–3.7–6.1–6.1–5.4–4.7–3.4–2.7
    Long-Term Interest Rate43.64.04.23.73.33.13.12.42.52.9
    United States4.34.84.63.73.33.22.81.82.43.1
    Euro Area3.53.94.34.43.93.54.33.73.23.3
    Japan1.41.71.71.51.41.21.10.90.70.8
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies
    Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing1
    Weighted Average1.41.92.01.5−2.5−1.3−0.10.70.50.5
    Median−1.9−1.1−1.2−1.0−3.7−3.1−2.7−2.7–2.8–3.0
    General Government Net Lending/Borrowing1
    Weighted Average0.71.41.20.7−4.2−2.6−1.2−1.7–2.3–2.2
    Median−1.7−0.7−1.0−1.0−3.9−3.1−2.5−2.6–2.7–2.8
    Growth of Broad Money
    Weighted Average19.521.320.718.116.016.316.914.113.412.0
    Median16.218.719.315.812.513.614.111.511.010.2
    Note: The country group composites for fiscal data are calculated as the sum of the U.S. dollar values for the relevant individual countries.

    Percent of GDP.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.

    Percent of potential GDP.

    Annual data are period averages: for the United States, 10-year Treasury bond yield at constant maturity; for Japan, 10-year government bond yield; for the Euro Area, a weighted average of national 10-year government bond yields.

    Table B6.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Excluding Social Security Schemes1(Percent of GDP)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
    Advanced Economies–2.4–1.4–1.1–3.5–8.8–7.7–6.4–5.9–4.5–3.5
    United States−3.1−2.0−2.7−6.5−12.9−10.8−9.7−8.3–5.8–4.6
    Euro Area−2.5−1.3−0.7−2.1−6.4−6.2−4.2−3.7–3.1–2.5
    Germany−3.3−1.70.2−0.1−3.1−4.2−0.80.1–0.4–0.1
    France2−3.0−2.4−2.8−3.3−7.6−7.1−5.3−4.9–4.0–3.5
    Italy−4.5−3.4−1.6−2.7−5.4−4.3−3.7−2.9–3.2–2.1
    Spain0.92.41.9−4.5−11.2−9.7−9.6−10.8–6.7–5.8
    Netherlands−0.30.50.20.5−5.6−5.1−4.4−4.1–3.0–3.2
    Belgium−2.60.3−0.1−1.1−5.6−3.9−3.9−4.0–2.8–2.5
    Austria3−1.8−1.7−1.0−1.0−4.1−4.5−2.5−2.5–2.6–2.4
    Greece−5.6−6.0−6.8−9.9−15.6−10.8−9.6−6.3–4.1–3.3
    Portugal−6.5−3.8−3.2−3.7−10.2−9.9−4.4−6.4–5.5–4.0
    Finland2.74.15.34.3−2.7−2.8−1.1−2.3–2.8–2.1
    Ireland41.72.90.1−7.3−13.8−30.5−13.1−7.6–7.6–5.0
    Slovak Republic−2.2−2.6−1.6−2.0−8.0−7.7−5.1−4.3–3.0–3.8
    Slovenia5−1.0−0.80.3−0.3−5.5−5.4−5.6−3.2–7.0–3.8
    Luxembourg0.01.43.73.2−0.8−0.9−0.2−0.8–0.7–0.9
    Estonia1.63.22.8−2.3−2.00.41.7−0.20.30.2
    Cyprus−2.5−1.23.50.9−6.1−5.3−6.3−6.3–6.7–7.5
    Malta−2.9−2.7−2.3−4.6−3.7−3.6−2.8−3.3–3.5–3.6
    Japan−4.8−3.7−2.1−4.1−10.4−9.3−9.9−10.1–9.5–6.8
    United Kingdom−3.4−2.8−2.8−5.0−11.3−10.0−7.8−7.9–6.1–5.8
    Canada1.71.81.5−0.3−4.5−4.9−3.7−3.4–3.4–2.9
    Korea60.91.12.31.60.01.71.81.91.41.7
    Australia1.81.81.5−1.1−4.6−5.1−4.5−3.7–3.1–2.3
    Taiwan Province of China−2.3−2.0−2.1−2.6−6.2−5.0−4.0−4.3–3.2–3.0
    Sweden1.92.23.52.2−1.00.00.0−0.7–1.4–1.5
    Hong Kong SAR1.04.17.80.11.54.23.93.22.63.3
    Switzerland−0.60.91.31.80.50.20.30.30.20.5
    Singapore7.97.112.06.5−0.57.49.67.45.34.8
    Czech Republic−3.2−2.4−0.7−2.2−5.8−4.8−3.3−4.4–2.9–2.9
    Norway15.018.317.318.810.511.113.413.812.411.6
    Israel−4.9−2.6−1.5−3.7−6.3−4.6−4.2−4.9–5.1–3.3
    Denmark5.05.04.83.3−2.8−2.7−2.0−4.2–1.7–2.0
    New Zealand4.84.13.21.5−1.5−5.1−4.9−2.0–1.3–0.4
    Iceland4.96.35.4−0.5−8.6−6.4−5.0−3.8–2.7–1.8
    San Marino3.01.31.60.0−2.3−2.2−3.6−2.5–2.6–2.8
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies−3.3−2.2−2.0−4.5−10.0−8.8−7.6−6.9–5.4–4.2
    Net Lending/Borrowing Excluding Social Security Schemes
    United States−2.7−1.2−1.8−5.3−10.3−8.0−6.5−4.8–2.0–1.0
    Japan0.71.93.51.8−2.7−1.5−1.8−1.9–1.21.5
    Germany−0.50.92.72.40.4−0.91.80.60.10.3
    France2.32.82.52.1−0.9−0.11.51.62.63.2
    Italy72.63.65.03.92.74.14.76.16.47.7
    Canada
    Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing
    Advanced Economies–2.2–1.4–1.1–3.2–7.5–6.6–5.6–5.0–3.8–3.0
    United States8−2.7−1.8−2.2−5.6−11.7−10.0−9.0−7.5–5.1–4.4
    Euro Area−2.3−1.6−1.1−2.2−5.1−5.2−3.5−3.3–2.5–2.0
    Germany9−2.1−1.5−0.8−0.7−1.6−3.3−1.0−0.5–0.4–0.3
    France−3.0−2.7−2.1−3.3−6.2−6.3−4.4−3.9–3.1–2.7
    Italy−3.9−2.8−2.0−2.6−4.7−4.4−3.7−2.9–3.2–2.1
    Spain0.20.71.1−2.8−9.4−5.4−5.1−7.8–4.5–3.8
    Japan10−4.3−4.0−2.0−5.1−8.0−7.2−8.0−8.6–7.8–5.0
    United Kingdom−3.0−2.8−2.8−4.7−10.8−9.9−7.8−5.8–6.6–5.8
    Canada0.10.90.9−0.1−1.9−2.4−1.7−1.0–0.8–0.4
    Other Advanced Economies112.22.93.62.6−0.40.20.70.70.70.9
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies–2.9–2.2–1.9–4.2–8.6–7.8–6.8–6.0–4.6–3.7
    Note: The country group composites for fiscal data are calculated as the sum of the U.S. dollar values for the relevant individual countries.

    On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

    Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

    Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included.

    The general government balances between 2009 and 2014 reflect the impact of banking support. The fiscal balance estimates excluding these measures are –11.3 percent of GDP for 2009, –10.6 percent of GDP for 2010, –8.9 percent of GDP for 2011, –7.6 percent of GDP for 2012, –7.5 percent of GDP for 2013 (including exchequer outlays for guarantees paid out under the ELG scheme in the context of the liquidation of IBRC), and –4.9 percent of GDP for 2014.

    Data cover the central government and social security funds and are on a cash basis. The 2011 fiscal balance includes 0.7 percent of GDP in recapitalization costs of the largest state bank, which were treated as state aid.

    Data cover the consolidated central government, including social security funds but excluding privatization.

    Data exclude total social contributions and payments, not only social security.

    Data are on a budget basis.

    Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

    Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.

    Table B7.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(Percent of potential GDP)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Advanced Economies–3.0–2.3–2.3–3.7–6.1–6.1–5.4–4.7–3.4–2.7
    United States−3.5−2.5−2.9−5.0−7.8−8.0−7.3−6.3–3.9–3.2
    Euro Area2−3.0−2.7−2.6−3.3−4.7−4.6−3.7−2.3–1.4–1.1
    Germany2−2.6−2.3−1.1−0.9−1.1−2.2−1.00.1–0.10.0
    France2−3.9−3.4−4.2−4.1−5.7−5.7−4.6−3.5–2.1–1.6
    Italy3−5.4−4.2−3.5−3.8−4.1−3.6−3.5−1.3–0.20.0
    Spain2−1.6−1.3−1.1−5.3−9.3−8.1−8.1−6.3–4.9–4.3
    Netherlands20.2−0.1−1.4−1.1−4.8−4.4−3.7−2.30.10.1
    Belgium2−0.3−0.7−0.9−1.8−3.8−3.7−4.0−3.4–2.7–2.3
    Austria2−1.7−2.5−2.6−2.5−2.9−3.0−2.1−1.3–1.8–1.8
    Greece−6.7−8.7−10.8−14.3−19.1−12.3−8.3−2.60.61.1
    Portugal2−6.1−3.8−4.2−5.4−9.2−9.0−6.6−4.0–3.4–1.9
    Finland1.82.32.11.8−0.1−1.7−1.2−1.4–1.1–0.6
    Ireland2−2.6−4.2−8.7−11.9−9.9−8.3−7.0−5.9–5.1–3.6
    Slovak Republic−1.0−2.2−3.2−2.8−6.3−7.2−4.8−4.4–3.7–3.5
    Slovenia−1.5−2.4−2.8−3.6−4.7−4.9−4.0−1.6–0.5–0.7
    Luxembourg0.31.12.12.40.5−0.6−0.4−0.8–0.6–0.8
    Estonia
    Cyprus−2.6−2.6−1.4−1.9−5.1−4.5−4.0−2.1–2.0–1.6
    Malta−3.4−2.8−3.5−6.2−3.7−4.8−3.6−4.3–3.4–3.3
    Japan−4.7−3.6−2.2−3.6−7.5−7.9−8.5−9.2–9.2–6.7
    United Kingdom−5.2−4.6−5.3−6.6−10.3−8.4−6.0−5.8–4.0–3.9
    Canada0.80.80.5−0.9−2.7−4.0−3.2−2.8–2.6–2.2
    Other Advanced Economies40.40.61.0−0.2−2.2−1.9−1.6−1.4–1.3–1.0
    Korea1.11.12.31.80.71.71.82.21.71.7
    Australia1.81.81.2−1.3−4.5−4.9−4.4−3.7–3.1–2.3
    Sweden1.41.31.61.0−0.10.6−0.1−0.7–1.2–1.3
    Norway5−4.0−3.5−3.3−3.5−5.5−5.4−4.7−5.2–5.7–5.9
    Denmark1.71.42.62.00.1−1.7−1.0−1.1–0.4–0.5
    New Zealand3.22.52.41.3−1.0−4.1−3.7−1.1–0.6–0.1
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies–3.7–2.8–2.8–4.1–6.6–6.8–6.1–5.4–3.9–3.0
    Note: The country group composites for fiscal data are calculated as the sum of the U.S. dollar values for the relevant individual countries.

    On a national income accounts basis. The structural balance position is defined as actual net lending/borrowing minus the effects of cyclical output from potential output, corrected for one-time and other factors, such as asset and commodity prices and output composition effects. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.

    Excludes sizable one-time receipts from the sale of assets, including licenses.

    Excludes one-time measures based on authorities’ data and, in the absence of the latter, receipts from the sale of assets.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.

    Excludes oil and income on the Government Pension Fund-Global.

    Table B8.Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance(Percent of GDP)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies0.71.41.20.7–4.2–2.6–1.2–1.7–2.3–2.2
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe−2.3−2.2−2.0−3.2−6.2−5.0−2.3−2.5–3.1–2.8
    Commonwealth of Independent States16.56.95.54.2−5.1−2.61.80.7–0.6–0.5
    Russia8.28.36.84.9−6.3−3.41.50.4–0.7–0.3
    Excluding Russia1.12.51.42.1−1.40.02.81.5–0.1–1.0
    Developing Asia−2.4−1.6−0.6−2.3−4.3−2.9−2.5−3.1–3.3–3.0
    China−1.4−0.70.9−0.7−3.1−1.5−1.3−2.2–2.5–2.1
    India−7.2−6.2−4.4−10.0−9.8−8.4−8.5−8.0–8.5–8.5
    Excluding China and India−0.50.0−1.1−0.6−3.4−2.1−1.4−2.2–2.6–2.8
    Latin America and the Caribbean−1.4−1.3−1.2−0.9−4.0−3.2−2.9−3.5–3.6–3.6
    Brazil−3.5−3.5−2.7−1.4−3.1−2.7−2.5−2.7–3.0–3.2
    Mexico−1.2−1.0−1.2−1.0−5.1−4.3−3.4−3.7–3.8–4.1
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan10.611.79.511.3−1.21.35.15.02.82.3
    Middle East and North Africa11.813.110.712.7−0.91.86.06.03.72.9
    Sub-Saharan Africa2.64.91.20.8–5.7–4.0–1.3–2.8–3.1–3.0
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa0.86.00.8−1.0−4.4−1.9−0.3−2.0–2.6–2.7
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel11.711.89.09.5−3.3−0.14.53.41.81.5
    Nonfuel−2.2−1.6−1.1−2.1−4.4−3.3−2.7−3.1–3.5–3.2
    Of Which, Primary Products0.64.73.22.1−2.8−0.10.90.2–1.2–1.1
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies−2.4−1.8−1.8−2.6−5.1−4.1−3.4−3.7–4.0–4.0
    Of Which, Official Financing−3.9−2.9−3.6−3.5−4.3−3.5−2.3−4.2–4.4–3.5
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2007–11−1.3−0.5−1.3−0.8−3.7−1.9−2.7−3.6–3.3–3.4
    Other Groups
    Heavily Indebted Poor Countries−1.73.4−1.4−0.9−3.4−1.9−1.9−2.8–3.0–3.1
    Memorandum
    Median
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies−1.7−0.7−1.0−1.0−3.9−3.1−2.5−2.6–2.7–2.8
    Central and Eastern Europe−0.9−0.6−1.2−3.3−5.6−4.3−3.3−3.0–2.8–2.9
    Commonwealth of Independent States11.41.51.21.1−3.3−3.2−1.50.5–2.2–2.2
    Developing Asia−1.7−0.5−0.8−0.5−3.2−2.5−2.1−2.2–2.7–2.5
    Latin America and the Caribbean−2.0−1.4−1.1−1.2−3.5−3.0−2.8−3.2–2.9–2.5
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan0.91.2−0.90.6−4.3−0.7−0.8−2.6–3.1–4.3
    Middle East and North Africa3.02.10.90.7−4.3−0.7−0.7−2.6–3.1–4.3
    Sub-Saharan Africa−2.0−0.7−1.2−1.3−4.1−3.9−2.9−3.0–2.8–3.0
    General Government Overall Fiscal Balance2
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies
    Brazil−3.4−2.3−2.7−2.1−6.2−5.4−3.5−4.1–3.8–4.2
    Indonesia0.60.2−1.00.0−1.9−1.2−0.7−1.7–2.3–2.6
    Turkey−1.4−1.4−2.2−3.0−6.4−3.7−0.9−2.1–2.8–2.9
    Argentina3−1.8−1.1−2.1−0.9−3.6−1.4−3.5−4.3–3.6–4.1
    Thailand−0.20.00.0−0.3−3.5−1.1−1.0−2.0–2.9–3.5
    Colombia0.0−1.0−0.8−0.3−2.8−3.3−2.00.2–1.0–0.7
    Malaysia−3.0−2.7−2.7−3.6−6.2−4.5−3.8−4.5–4.3–4.4
    Nigeria13.08.91.66.3−9.4−6.70.8−1.8–1.8–1.8
    Philippines−1.60.1−0.6−0.1−2.7−2.7−1.0−1.4–1.1–1.1
    Venezuela8.20.70.1−3.0−5.0−9.4−7.6−11.1–10.9–11.1
    Vietnam−3.00.0−2.4−1.1−7.0−4.6−3.4−5.4–4.4–4.4
    Peru−0.41.93.22.6−1.5−0.12.02.10.30.3
    Chile4.57.47.94.1–4.1–0.41.40.6–0.7–0.2
    Note: The country group composites for fiscal data are calculated as the sum of the U.S. dollar values for the relevant individual countries.

    Georgia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

    Net lending/borrowing including policy lending, where policy lending represents the value of transactions in financial assets that are deemed to be for public policy purposes.

    Calculations are based on Argentina’s official GDP data. See footnote to Table A4.

    Table B9.Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing(Percent of GDP)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Central and Eastern Europe–2.3–2.2–2.0–3.2–6.2–5.0–2.3–2.5–3.1–2.8
    Albania−3.4−3.3−3.3−5.1−7.4−4.2−3.5−3.2–5.5–6.3
    Bosnia and Herzegovina0.82.10.2−3.7−5.9−3.9−2.6−2.8–1.6–1.2
    Bulgaria2.33.33.32.9−0.9−4.0−2.0−0.5–1.8–1.7
    Croatia−2.8−2.6−2.1−1.3−4.2−5.1−5.2−3.8–4.7–4.7
    Hungary−7.8−9.4−5.1−3.7−4.6−4.44.2−2.0–2.7–2.8
    Kosovo−3.12.77.0−0.2−0.6−2.6−1.8−2.6–3.8–3.0
    Latvia−1.1−0.50.6−7.5−7.8−7.3−3.20.1–1.4–0.5
    Lithuania−0.5−0.4−1.0−3.3−9.4−7.2−5.5−3.3–2.9–2.7
    FYR Macedonia0.2−0.50.6−0.9−2.7−2.4−2.5−3.9–4.2–3.4
    Montenegro−1.43.26.3−3.2−5.4−4.6−5.2−4.3–2.3–3.2
    Poland−4.1−3.6−1.9−3.7−7.4−7.9−5.0−3.9–4.6–3.4
    Romania−0.7−1.4−3.1−4.8−7.3−6.4−4.3−2.5–2.3–2.0
    Serbia1.1−1.0−1.4−2.0−3.9−3.9−4.3−7.1–7.2–6.2
    Turkey−0.8−0.7−1.9−2.7−6.0−3.0−0.7−1.6–2.3–2.3
    Commonwealth of Independent States16.56.95.54.2–5.1–2.61.80.7–0.6–0.5
    Russia8.28.36.84.9−6.3−3.41.50.4–0.7–0.3
    Excluding Russia1.12.51.42.1−1.40.02.81.5–0.1–1.0
    Armenia−2.1−2.0−2.3−1.8−7.7−5.0−2.9−1.6–2.2–2.3
    Azerbaijan2.41.12.320.06.614.011.33.0–4.9–6.9
    Belarus1.91.21.51.9−0.4−4.3−2.70.6–0.6–3.2
    Georgia2.23.40.8−2.0−6.5−4.8−0.9−0.8–2.2–2.0
    Kazakhstan6.07.75.21.2−1.31.56.04.54.84.1
    Kyrgyz Republic−3.8−2.7−0.61.0−1.1−5.8−4.6−5.8–5.3–4.2
    Moldova21.50.0−0.2−1.0−6.3−2.5−2.4−2.1–2.6–2.8
    Tajikistan−2.91.7−5.5−5.1−5.2−3.0−2.10.5–2.3–1.3
    Turkmenistan0.85.33.910.07.02.03.66.41.82.0
    Ukraine−2.3−1.4−2.0−3.2−6.3−5.8−2.8−4.5–4.3–5.1
    Uzbekistan1.25.45.210.22.84.98.88.51.20.6
    Developing Asia–2.4–1.6–0.6–2.3–4.3–2.9–2.5–3.1–3.3–3.0
    Bangladesh−3.3−3.0−2.6−4.6−3.7−3.1−4.1−3.4–3.8–3.9
    Bhutan−7.2−1.20.60.3−0.51.6−2.1−4.3–1.9–1.9
    Brunei Darussalam18.022.13.440.03.88.428.126.021.619.8
    Cambodia−0.4−0.2−0.70.3−4.2−2.8−4.1−2.7–2.4–2.0
    China−1.4−0.70.9−0.7−3.1−1.5−1.3−2.2–2.5–2.1
    Fiji−3.3−3.4−2.00.6−4.1−2.1−1.4−1.0–2.8–2.0
    India−7.2−6.2−4.4−10.0−9.8−8.4−8.5−8.0–8.5–8.5
    Indonesia0.60.2−1.00.0−1.8−1.2−0.6−1.7–2.2–2.5
    Kiribati−15.2−15.8−16.5−19.6−12.0−12.7−21.2−6.8–21.1–16.1
    Lao P.D.R.−3.4−3.2−2.4−2.6−5.3−4.7−2.1−2.6–4.5–4.7
    Malaysia−3.0−2.7−2.7−3.6−6.2−4.5−3.8−4.5–4.3–4.4
    Maldives−9.2−5.5−3.8−11.9−21.1−16.3−12.3−13.5–6.8–7.0
    Marshall Islands−3.41.40.23.71.44.63.7−1.1–0.10.2
    Micronesia−5.6−5.4−3.5−1.61.90.5−0.60.80.60.6
    Mongolia2.47.62.6−4.5−5.20.5−4.8−11.8–11.3–7.3
    Myanmar−2.8−3.6−3.3−2.4−4.9−5.4−4.6−3.7–5.1–4.8
    Nepal0.30.3−0.8−0.4−2.6−0.8−1.0−0.62.7–0.3
    Palau1.40.1−1.9−1.6−0.8−0.91.2−0.11.83.7
    Papua New Guinea2.76.59.02.5−9.63.11.7−3.2–6.3–5.9
    Philippines−1.70.0−0.30.0−2.6−2.5−0.6−0.9–0.8–0.8
    Samoa0.3−0.50.6−1.5−4.2−7.3−6.2−5.5–4.8–3.1
    Solomon Islands−1.9−1.31.7−0.21.86.29.03.90.80.6
    Sri Lanka−7.0−7.0−6.9−7.0−9.9−8.0−6.9−6.4–5.8–5.2
    Thailand1.52.20.20.1−3.2−0.8−0.7−1.7–2.7–3.2
    Timor-Leste6.119.937.544.931.337.942.747.036.237.1
    Tonga2.73.33.46.14.4−3.7−3.6−0.60.20.7
    Tuvalu−11.6−15.6−12.3−3.51.7−24.0−8.99.9–6.6–7.3
    Vanuatu1.90.50.30.0−0.8−2.5−2.2−1.6–1.0–2.1
    Vietnam−1.20.3−2.0−0.5−6.6−2.8−2.9−4.8–4.0–4.0
    Latin America and the Caribbean–1.4–1.3–1.2–0.9–4.0–3.2–2.9–3.5–3.6–3.6
    Antigua and Barbuda−15.2−8.8−5.0−5.7−18.2−0.2−3.6−1.2–6.21.7
    Argentina3−1.8−1.1−2.1−0.9−3.6−1.4−3.5−4.3–3.6–4.1
    The Bahamas−2.4−1.4−2.4−1.8−3.9−4.3−4.6−5.6–7.6–5.9
    Barbados−5.1−3.5−7.7−6.7−6.3−7.7−4.5−8.6–8.8–7.2
    Belize−3.5−3.9−0.70.4−1.2−1.7−1.1−0.6–1.1–1.6
    Bolivia−2.24.51.73.60.01.70.81.81.51.4
    Brazil−3.5−3.5−2.7−1.4−3.1−2.7−2.5−2.7–3.0–3.2
    Chile4.57.47.94.1−4.1−0.41.40.6–0.7–0.2
    Colombia0.0−1.0−0.8−0.3−2.8−3.3−2.00.2–1.0–0.7
    Costa Rica−2.8−1.40.3−0.3−3.6−5.5−4.3−4.7–5.1–5.7
    Dominica1.03.01.80.7−0.3−3.5−4.5−3.7–3.9–3.3
    Dominican Republic−0.8−1.30.1−3.0−3.5−2.5−2.6−6.6–2.8–1.5
    Ecuador0.62.91.80.5−3.6−1.40.0−1.1–2.0–2.1
    El Salvador−3.0−2.5−1.3−2.7−5.6−4.4−3.9−3.9–4.2–4.1
    Grenada0.4−5.6−6.4−4.1−5.2−3.1−4.4−5.4–9.2–8.7
    Guatemala−1.7−1.9−1.4−1.6−3.1−3.3−2.8−2.4–2.2–2.3
    Guyana−8.5−8.0−4.3−3.6−3.5−2.7−3.0−4.5–2.7–2.2
    Haiti−2.7−1.70.2−2.8−4.62.4−3.7−5.1–5.5–6.9
    Honduras−1.3−2.7−1.6−1.7−4.5−2.8−2.8−4.2–6.5–6.3
    Jamaica−3.3−4.9−3.8−7.5−11.1−6.3−6.4−4.1–0.5–0.4
    Mexico−1.2−1.0−1.2−1.0−5.1−4.3−3.4−3.7–3.8–4.1
    Nicaragua−0.80.50.9−0.6−1.7−0.60.30.0–0.9–1.0
    Panama−2.60.53.40.4−1.0−1.9−2.3−2.1–3.1–2.7
    Paraguay0.70.81.42.70.51.40.5−1.2–1.5–1.3
    Peru−0.41.93.22.6−1.5−0.12.02.10.30.3
    St. Kitts and Nevis−3.3−3.9−3.5−3.9−2.9−7.81.85.22.2–0.4
    St. Lucia−6.9−5.8−1.9−0.9−3.0−4.9−6.4−10.3–7.5–7.3
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines−4.5−3.1−3.1−1.4−3.0−3.9−3.6−2.7–2.6–2.1
    Suriname−2.30.0−1.11.6−2.4−3.10.9−4.0–2.9–4.0
    Trinidad and Tobago4.06.13.68.0−9.1−3.80.0−0.3–1.4–1.4
    Uruguay−0.4−0.50.0−1.6−1.7−1.5−0.9−2.8–2.4–2.7
    Venezuela4.1−1.6−2.8−3.5−8.7−10.4−11.6−16.6–15.0–13.3
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan10.611.79.511.3–1.21.35.15.02.82.3
    Afghanistan0.9−3.1−2.0−4.0−1.30.9−0.80.2–0.60.0
    Algeria13.613.96.19.0−5.4−0.4−0.4−5.1–1.7–2.3
    Bahrain3.52.71.94.9−6.6−7.0−1.7−2.6–4.2–5.0
    Djibouti0.3−2.4−2.61.3−4.6−0.5−0.7−2.7–3.1–4.8
    Egypt−8.4−9.2−7.5−8.0−6.9−8.3−9.8−10.7–14.7–13.2
    Iran3.02.17.40.70.93.04.1−2.5–2.5–4.4
    Iraq4.110.77.8−0.9−12.7−4.34.94.1–0.7–0.3
    Jordan−5.0−3.5−5.7−5.5−8.9−5.6−6.8−8.8–9.1–8.0
    Kuwait43.335.439.119.826.824.533.334.029.025.9
    Lebanon−8.6−10.5−10.9−9.7−8.3−7.7−6.1−9.0–10.4–11.0
    Libya31.431.828.628.36.217.2−6.619.4–5.4–3.9
    Mauritania−1.6−6.5−5.1−1.9−1.52.8–4.4–8.2
    Morocco−6.2−2.0−0.10.7−1.8−4.4−6.7−7.6–5.5–4.8
    Oman12.914.112.116.8−0.35.59.14.56.43.8
    Pakistan4−2.8−3.4−5.1−7.1−5.0−5.9−6.9−8.4–8.5–5.5
    Qatar8.47.99.910.212.52.53.68.110.78.4
    Saudi Arabia21.324.415.031.6−4.12.112.015.09.68.6
    Sudan5−2.5−1.4−3.50.6−5.10.30.2−3.8–2.0–0.9
    Syria6−4.4−1.1−3.0−2.9−2.9−7.8
    Tunisia−2.8−2.6−2.0−0.6−1.2−0.9−3.4−4.9–6.8–4.3
    United Arab Emirates15.820.018.221.4−0.54.711.013.311.110.8
    Yemen−1.81.2−7.2−4.5−10.2−4.0−4.4−6.3–5.8–5.8
    Sub-Saharan Africa2.64.91.20.8−5.7−4.0−1.3−2.8–3.1–3.0
    Angola9.411.84.7−4.5−8.34.68.74.51.2–0.8
    Benin−2.3−0.20.3−0.1−3.3−0.4−1.4−0.3–0.4–1.5
    Botswana10.213.05.5−7.5−13.5−7.5−0.10.20.21.5
    Burkina Faso−5.516.1−6.7−4.3−5.3−4.6−2.4−3.2–2.3–3.2
    Burundi−3.6−1.0−2.5−2.7−5.3−3.6−4.0−3.7–1.7–2.5
    Cameroon3.632.84.72.2−0.1−1.1−2.7−1.1–3.3–3.5
    Cape Verde−6.0−5.1−0.9−0.6−5.9−10.7−7.7−9.9–8.1–8.4
    Central African Republic−4.69.11.2−1.0−0.1−1.4−2.40.0–1.6–1.3
    Chad−0.12.22.53.6−9.2−4.22.40.5–2.4–0.7
    Comoros0.1−2.6−2.0−2.50.67.01.43.418.6–0.8
    Democratic Republic of the Congo−4.3−3.6−3.8−3.8−2.64.9−1.8−0.1–2.8–3.4
    Republic of Congo14.616.69.423.44.816.116.46.414.315.5
    Côte d’Ivoire−1.7−1.8−0.8−0.6−1.6−2.3−5.7−3.4–3.1–3.5
    Equatorial Guinea22.828.321.818.7−9.4−6.11.0−9.7–4.7–4.4
    Eritrea−22.2−14.1−15.7−21.1−14.7−16.0−16.2−13.5–12.5–11.6
    Ethiopia−4.2−3.9−3.6−2.9−0.9−1.3−1.6−1.2–2.8–3.1
    Gabon7.88.38.010.96.82.72.41.5–2.3–2.6
    The Gambia−5.9−5.10.4−1.3−2.7−5.4−4.7−4.4–2.7–2.0
    Ghana−2.8−4.7−5.6−8.4−7.0−9.4−5.5−9.3–7.0–7.3
    Guinea−1.6−3.10.3−1.3−7.1−14.0−1.3−3.3–4.8–2.2
    Guinea-Bissau−7.6−5.5−10.6−2.41.6−2.1−2.1−3.1–0.1–1.7
    Kenya−1.8−2.5−3.2−4.4−5.4−5.5−5.1−6.3–5.8–4.2
    Lesotho4.514.311.18.9−4.0−5.1−10.65.32.02.2
    Liberia0.04.83.0−9.8−10.0−5.7−3.1−1.6–5.5–5.3
    Madagascar−3.0−0.5−2.7−1.1−3.1−1.5−4.8−2.9–2.7–3.0
    Malawi−2.50.7−3.5−4.5−4.42.6−5.3−4.0–2.7–2.1
    Mali−3.131.3−3.2−2.2−4.2−2.7−3.7−1.1–2.5–3.0
    Mauritius−4.7−4.4−3.3−2.8−3.6−3.2−3.2−1.8–1.7–1.6
    Mozambique−2.8−4.1−2.9−2.5−5.5−4.3−5.0−4.0–4.6–7.2
    Namibia−0.52.95.94.2−0.1−4.6−6.6−3.0–4.2–1.6
    Niger−2.040.3−1.01.5−5.4−2.4−1.5−2.6–4.4–4.0
    Nigeria13.08.91.66.3−9.4−6.70.8−1.8–1.8–1.8
    Rwanda0.90.2−1.81.00.30.4−2.2−1.8–2.8–2.9
    São Tomé and Príncipe27.2−12.7125.414.2−18.4−11.0−12.0−10.8–8.0–8.5
    Senegal−2.8−5.4−3.8−4.7−4.9−5.2−6.3−5.6–5.3–4.6
    Seychelles−0.3−6.1−9.55.52.8−0.82.52.42.83.0
    Sierra Leone−1.9−1.620.1−3.5−2.3−5.0−4.6−5.2–3.1–4.0
    South Africa0.01.21.4−0.4−5.5−5.1−4.0−4.8–4.9–4.7
    South Sudan4.4−16.0–9.08.1
    Swaziland−2.010.1−1.6−0.7−6.0−11.5−5.63.7–2.6–7.2
    Tanzania−4.0−4.5−1.9−2.6−6.0−6.5−5.0−5.0–5.3–4.5
    Togo−2.4−2.8−1.9−0.9−2.8−1.6−2.9−6.9–6.0–4.1
    Uganda−0.2−0.8−1.1−2.7−2.3−6.7−3.1−3.5–1.8–6.0
    Zambia−2.820.2−1.3−0.8−2.5−3.0−2.2−3.1–7.8–6.6
    Zimbabwe–8.1–3.2–3.9–2.7–2.80.9–1.7–0.7–0.71.3

    Georgia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

    Moldova projections are based on data available for the first quarter of 2013.

    Calculations are based on Argentina’s official GDP data. See footnote to Table A4.

    Pakistan’s data for the projection years exclude payments for electricity arrears and commodity operations.

    Data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9. Data for 2012 and onward pertain to the current Sudan.

    Data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward due to the uncertain political situation.

    Table B10.Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates
    Exchange Rate
    Assumption
    200520062007200820092010201120122013
    U.S. Dollars per National Currency Unit
    U.S. Dollar Nominal Exchange Rates
    Euro1.2461.2561.3711.4721.3931.3271.3911.2861.326
    Pound Sterling1.8201.8432.0021.8531.5641.5461.6041.5851.541
    National Currency Units per U.S. Dollar
    Japanese Yen110.218116.299117.754103.35993.57087.78079.80779.79096.511
    Canadian Dollar1.2121.1341.0741.0671.1431.0300.9900.9991.027
    Swedish Krona7.4737.3786.7596.5917.6547.2086.4946.7756.521
    Danish Krone5.9975.9475.4445.0985.3615.6245.3695.7925.662
    Swiss Franc1.2451.2541.2001.0831.0881.0430.8880.9380.935
    Norwegian Krone6.4436.4135.8625.6406.2886.0445.6055.8185.865
    Israeli New Shekel4.4884.4564.1083.5883.9323.7393.5783.8583.852
    Icelandic Krona62.8569.8564.0687.95123.64122.24116.04125.11122.76
    Korean Won1,024.1954.8929.31,102.01,276.91,156.11,108.31,126.51,111.1
    Australian Dollar1.3121.3271.1921.1731.2631.0870.9690.9651.040
    New Taiwan Dollar32.1832.5332.8431.5333.0631.6529.4729.6229.82
    Hong Kong Dollar7.7777.7687.8017.7877.7527.7697.7847.7567.757
    Singapore Dollar1.6641.5891.5071.4151.4551.3641.2581.2501.257
    Index, 2005 = 100Percent Change from
    Previous Assumption2
    Real Effective Exchange Rates1
    United States100.099.893.691.296.091.586.189.6−0.8
    Euro Area3100.099.9105.0113.1112.3106.7104.999.80.9
    Germany100.096.597.5102.1104.0102.798.796.60.4
    France100.0102.2105.2105.8103.6104.3105.4104.80.3
    Italy100.0101.5105.9112.1112.5111.3119.4119.80.3
    Spain100.0103.1108.9114.6113.2107.9104.298.00.3
    Netherlands100.099.6100.2104.4102.999.299.197.30.3
    Belgium100.0102.6105.0106.4106.2102.6102.6101.70.3
    Austria100.098.397.894.693.494.094.093.20.2
    Greece100.0103.1105.7104.1104.4103.2102.993.20.2
    Portugal100.0101.4101.3100.898.799.6100.494.30.2
    Finland100.095.291.592.794.291.591.590.40.4
    Ireland100.0100.598.798.183.771.665.462.60.6
    Slovak Republic100.0101.2107.3117.8129.1127.6127.7126.10.2
    Slovenia100.0101.4104.6107.4112.3111.2111.7110.20.2
    Luxembourg100.0102.7104.3105.7105.9102.5102.2101.40.3
    Estonia100.0100.4101.3103.5103.8102.6102.3100.60.3
    Cyprus100.099.7100.4106.8108.5104.7103.7101.00.3
    Malta100.0100.0103.0108.3108.7105.1104.0100.80.5
    Japan100.091.081.889.7108.2109.8118.5119.7−0.7
    United Kingdom100.0102.8105.089.682.588.389.092.5−0.5
    Canada100.0108.9116.2113.7104.9117.5120.5118.90.0
    Korea100.0106.6106.583.971.878.274.477.01.7
    Australia100.0103.4114.8113.4105.4130.3145.5153.8−3.2
    Taiwan Province of China100.094.987.486.475.867.470.065.3−0.1
    Sweden100.094.999.1100.297.193.891.092.20.4
    Hong Kong SAR100.097.693.889.990.889.088.093.7−0.4
    Switzerland100.099.097.5101.0106.4112.5129.0130.30.1
    Singapore100.0106.4111.8119.7116.7131.4142.1153.1−0.9
    Czech Republic100.099.6101.1108.299.398.198.293.70.2
    Norway100.0108.2115.5116.3110.7119.2127.8131.6−0.5
    Israel100.0102.1106.7117.7110.1120.9122.8118.81.0
    Denmark100.0100.0103.5102.0101.995.492.291.70.4
    New Zealand100.096.3102.995.785.996.698.599.11.5
    Iceland100.0100.1112.583.156.263.465.164.2–0.9

    Defined as the ratio, in common currency, of the unit labor costs in the manufacturing sector to the weighted average of those of its industrial country trading partners, using 2004–06 trade weights.

    In nominal effective terms. Average June 1–July 9, 2013, compared with July 29–August 26, 2013, rates.

    A synthetic euro for the period prior to January 1, 1999, is used in the calculation of real effective exchange rates for the euro. See Box 5.5 of the October 1998 World Economic Outlook.

    Table B11.Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates(Annual percent change)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies19.521.320.718.116.016.316.914.113.412.0
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe23.420.616.118.69.011.811.66.68.08.4
    Commonwealth of Independent States137.242.642.117.515.524.522.613.515.113.5
    Russia36.340.541.213.517.324.620.912.113.912.3
    Excluding Russia39.849.345.131.210.024.128.318.218.717.5
    Developing Asia16.417.817.317.022.717.616.114.311.610.7
    China16.317.016.717.828.418.917.314.411.910.0
    India21.121.721.419.316.916.113.213.812.614.1
    Excluding China and India12.716.315.112.812.714.814.914.49.710.4
    Latin America and the Caribbean18.418.616.917.611.316.219.718.216.514.6
    Brazil18.518.018.717.816.315.818.515.915.815.5
    Mexico14.813.011.216.86.112.015.714.411.18.8
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan19.621.624.918.313.011.614.412.716.513.1
    Middle East and North Africa19.622.325.318.513.211.514.312.616.613.1
    Sub-Saharan Africa16.728.926.429.012.712.715.711.814.313.2
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel27.835.633.421.215.717.320.215.617.714.5
    Nonfuel17.718.117.517.316.016.116.013.712.311.4
    Of Which, Primary Products19.219.020.919.111.119.718.514.811.612.2
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies18.718.918.117.511.415.115.513.512.812.3
    Of Which, Official Financing18.217.516.615.112.915.316.914.513.212.9
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2007–1118.524.720.715.417.828.625.626.022.317.3
    Other Groups
    Heavily Indebted Poor Countries17.024.220.620.717.022.919.318.115.214.0
    Memorandum
    Median
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies16.218.719.315.812.513.614.111.511.010.2
    Central and Eastern Europe21.022.416.98.35.28.87.94.56.56.6
    Commonwealth of Independent States129.043.444.420.717.023.322.320.117.516.9
    Developing Asia15.519.418.012.019.615.916.514.610.610.0
    Latin America and the Caribbean12.516.716.113.28.110.110.610.69.38.9
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan14.318.119.316.211.612.112.210.511.210.1
    Middle East and North Africa14.118.719.116.211.611.810.210.511.210.1
    Sub-Saharan Africa16.018.420.122.316.419.114.414.011.310.6

    Georgia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

    Table B12.Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services(Annual percent change)
    AveragesProjections
    1995–20042005–142005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Export Volume
    Advanced Economies6.33.86.18.96.92.1−11.612.45.72.02.74.7
    United States4.84.76.08.98.95.7−9.111.57.13.52.43.6
    Euro Area16.63.35.28.96.60.6−12.711.66.32.32.04.5
    Germany7.45.27.713.18.02.8−13.015.28.03.22.86.7
    France5.71.82.95.22.3−0.3−12.19.55.42.41.23.0
    Italy3.61.63.48.46.2−2.8−17.511.45.92.3–0.62.3
    Spain7.33.62.56.76.7−1.0−10.011.77.62.15.75.8
    Japan5.53.06.29.98.71.4−24.224.4−0.4−0.14.17.1
    United Kingdom5.22.79.112.0−2.11.1−8.76.74.50.92.22.8
    Canada5.40.52.20.91.1−4.5−13.16.94.71.51.74.8
    Other Advanced Economies28.05.17.79.39.54.1−8.113.55.91.53.95.5
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies5.43.55.99.25.81.8−13.212.85.62.42.34.6
    Import Volume
    Advanced Economies6.82.96.37.85.40.5–12.111.74.71.01.54.0
    United States8.12.16.16.12.3−2.6−13.712.84.92.21.53.5
    Euro Area16.62.55.88.56.30.4−11.39.74.4−1.20.43.9
    Germany6.24.96.211.85.43.4−7.812.57.41.43.17.4
    France6.02.35.65.15.50.9−9.68.95.1−1.10.72.7
    Italy5.0−0.13.57.95.2−3.0−13.412.60.5−7.7–4.30.5
    Spain9.60.47.710.28.0−5.2−17.29.3−0.1−5.7–1.01.8
    Japan4.62.24.24.52.30.3−15.711.15.95.42.33.8
    United Kingdom7.11.46.910.0−1.5−1.7−10.77.90.32.8–0.12.0
    Canada5.63.37.35.35.80.8−12.413.65.73.11.53.9
    Other Advanced Economies27.14.97.68.910.04.4−11.615.35.91.63.45.3
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies6.62.55.87.43.2−0.5−11.911.64.71.41.23.9
    Terms of Trade
    Advanced Economies0.0–0.6–1.3–1.20.3–2.12.5–1.1–1.6–0.70.0–0.2
    United States0.1−0.5−1.7−0.6−0.2−5.35.6−1.5−1.30.40.2–0.4
    Euro Area10.1−0.6−1.2−1.50.6−1.63.1−2.1−2.1−0.8–0.20.0
    Germany0.1−0.5−1.7−1.60.6−1.74.2−1.9−2.2−0.4–0.20.1
    France−0.1−0.4−1.3−1.51.3−0.72.8−1.5−2.2−0.7–0.2–0.3
    Italy0.0−1.1−2.8−3.20.9−1.65.3−3.8−3.1−1.70.2–0.6
    Spain0.8−0.40.50.30.8−1.64.1−2.5−3.0−2.2–0.30.1
    Japan−1.7−2.9−6.8−6.7−4.0−9.612.8−5.6−7.1−0.9–1.11.5
    United Kingdom0.7−0.6−1.7−0.50.0−0.9−0.6−0.3−1.6−0.20.00.1
    Canada1.11.03.51.03.04.3−8.94.93.4−0.90.4–0.1
    Other Advanced Economies2−0.2−0.30.1−0.10.2−0.7−0.71.1−0.7−0.9–0.2–0.6
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies0.1−0.7−2.1−1.80.4−2.84.0−1.9−2.0−0.70.1–0.1
    Memorandum
    Trade in Goods
    Advanced Economies
    Export Volume6.43.55.78.85.81.5−13.414.35.91.72.44.7
    Import Volume7.12.86.68.14.8−0.1−13.113.45.20.51.04.1
    Terms of Trade−0.1−0.6−1.5−1.30.4−2.53.8−1.3−1.8−1.2–0.3–0.1

    Calculated as the average of individual Euro Area countries.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.

    Table B13.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods(Annual percent change)
    AveragesProjections
    1995–20042005–142005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports12.011.825.221.819.422.3−22.927.624.84.22.54.8
    Imports10.512.118.618.923.922.9−19.326.223.04.55.25.9
    Volume
    Exports8.85.811.010.38.63.3−8.113.86.74.73.35.7
    Imports8.27.411.111.514.47.7−9.715.29.95.15.36.0
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports3.15.913.210.910.118.3−15.612.817.0−0.5–0.8–0.9
    Imports2.14.57.07.08.314.0−10.39.912.5−0.7–0.20.0
    Terms of Trade1.01.45.83.61.63.8−5.92.64.10.3–0.6–0.9
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports15.89.516.220.224.021.0−22.416.120.10.04.44.8
    Imports16.58.716.322.127.121.5−31.119.323.2−4.64.34.3
    Volume
    Exports11.15.99.812.29.24.5−8.913.16.65.13.55.0
    Imports11.94.57.512.814.12.5−16.111.97.4−0.14.04.7
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports4.23.35.57.213.615.2−14.52.412.0−5.20.9–0.1
    Imports3.74.08.08.311.618.3−17.26.514.2−4.70.2–0.4
    Terms of Trade0.4−0.7−2.3−1.11.7−2.73.3−3.8−1.9−0.50.60.3
    Commonwealth of Independent States1
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports11.111.727.524.720.636.2−35.830.534.53.0–1.31.3
    Imports7.713.622.829.536.230.9−34.227.431.66.71.35.8
    Volume
    Exports7.02.84.77.86.70.7−13.47.37.73.71.43.4
    Imports7.28.515.320.823.012.0−27.618.516.79.41.76.3
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports4.38.921.715.813.035.7−25.022.025.0−0.6–2.6–2.0
    Imports0.84.76.47.210.916.9−8.97.712.8−2.4–0.4–0.4
    Terms of Trade3.54.014.48.01.916.1−17.713.210.81.9–2.3–1.6
    Developing Asia
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports13.513.223.023.121.916.7−15.031.020.15.55.77.5
    Imports12.113.418.417.220.619.4−12.835.425.24.56.07.3
    Volume
    Exports12.48.917.216.913.34.8−8.322.98.54.35.56.9
    Imports9.68.311.710.611.95.3−2.619.010.44.96.36.8
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports1.04.15.15.77.911.5−7.17.010.71.20.10.5
    Imports2.44.86.06.37.713.4−10.113.813.5−0.3–0.30.4
    Terms of Trade−1.3−0.6−0.9−0.60.2−1.73.3−6.0−2.41.40.40.1
    Latin America and the Caribbean
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports9.69.320.719.612.415.8−22.326.723.81.51.92.4
    Imports7.510.718.319.219.421.5−24.629.222.34.24.93.4
    Volume
    Exports7.12.96.95.73.2−0.5−8.98.44.23.42.65.0
    Imports6.16.49.812.812.17.3−18.822.612.92.74.23.8
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports2.46.213.013.39.016.4−14.817.318.8−1.8–0.7–2.5
    Imports1.34.17.95.86.512.9−6.55.68.91.40.7–0.4
    Terms of Trade1.22.04.87.02.43.0−8.911.29.1−3.2–1.4–2.0
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports11.612.538.221.017.232.4−29.924.432.68.0–2.52.4
    Imports8.712.119.915.830.230.7−10.66.910.412.55.85.7
    Volume
    Exports4.03.46.73.34.54.5−4.33.04.67.4–0.34.9
    Imports6.27.913.77.319.916.3−2.20.61.811.26.26.2
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports7.28.729.917.112.025.5−26.420.427.9−0.2–2.4–2.6
    Imports1.74.17.19.18.411.3−9.67.111.5−0.1–1.1–0.4
    Terms of Trade5.44.421.27.33.312.8−18.612.414.7−0.2–1.3–2.2
    Sub-Saharan Africa
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports9.110.927.219.020.123.8−26.829.428.4−2.61.44.5
    Imports8.611.818.816.022.223.6−14.919.625.32.85.75.8
    Volume
    Exports3.66.23.27.82.4−5.26.04.23.52.75.8
    Imports6.87.58.98.115.311.3−4.17.910.74.56.56.7
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports7.420.115.911.221.3−21.622.821.7−3.1–1.8–2.4
    Imports2.14.39.68.16.211.2−10.511.112.2−1.4–0.6–0.8
    Terms of Trade3.09.67.24.79.1−12.410.58.5−1.7–1.2–1.6

    Georgia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

    Table B14.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods(Annual percent change)
    AveragesProjections
    1995–20042005–142005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Fuel
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports11.812.539.022.817.334.3−33.527.534.86.8–2.21.4
    Imports9.013.322.120.434.329.0−18.513.719.810.65.66.1
    Volume
    Exports4.72.86.74.14.22.8−7.13.54.86.00.04.1
    Imports7.38.915.612.824.013.9−12.96.810.010.45.46.7
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports6.99.430.618.012.430.2−28.023.128.30.2–2.3–2.7
    Imports1.24.37.28.08.212.4−7.17.610.0−0.8–0.3–0.4
    Terms of Trade5.64.821.99.33.915.8−22.514.416.61.0–2.0–2.3
    Nonfuel
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports12.111.520.021.320.317.2−17.627.720.53.34.66.2
    Imports10.911.817.918.621.721.4−19.529.423.63.25.15.9
    Volume
    Exports10.26.912.613.010.53.5−8.617.87.44.14.76.4
    Imports8.47.110.311.312.36.2−9.017.29.84.05.35.8
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports1.84.56.87.89.013.3−9.78.912.6−0.8–0.2–0.2
    Imports2.24.57.06.88.314.3−11.110.513.0−0.7–0.20.1
    Terms of Trade−0.40.0−0.10.90.7−0.91.6−1.5−0.3−0.10.0–0.3
    Primary Products
    Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports7.811.723.434.319.610.4−15.231.618.8−3.51.26.7
    Imports5.714.628.118.723.934.1−20.730.525.57.35.06.2
    Volume
    Exports5.93.85.85.06.91.5−3.05.03.70.94.58.4
    Imports4.710.215.911.516.417.4−11.021.813.57.15.57.1
    Unit Value in U.S. Dollars
    Exports2.48.017.128.711.79.1−11.926.115.4−3.9–3.0–1.5
    Imports1.24.211.26.96.514.4−11.07.310.60.4–0.5–0.9
    Terms of Trade1.23.65.320.44.8−4.7−1.117.54.3−4.2–2.5–0.6
    Table B15.Advanced Economies: Current Account Transactions(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Exports6,951.47,838.58,914.99,879.07,745.79,162.210,648.410,478.710,692.711,230.6
    Imports−7,478.7−8,495.2−9,534.4−10,673.3−8,109.1−9,640.0−11,342.2−11,166.8–11,274.8–11,784.6
    Trade Balance−527.3−656.7−619.4−794.2−363.4−477.8−693.9−688.1–582.1–554.1
    Services, Credits2,043.92,285.72,712.63,021.22,723.72,935.73,272.83,289.23,438.53,614.5
    Services, Debits−1,817.7−1,985.3−2,297.3−2,553.4−2,312.7−2,452.0−2,683.1−2,681.4–2,758.2–2,883.7
    Balance on Services226.2300.4415.3467.9411.0483.7589.8607.8680.3730.8
    Balance on Goods and Services−301.2−356.2−204.1−326.447.56.0−104.1−80.398.2176.7
    Income, Net181.2191.1203.4190.8230.2342.7430.2417.9344.3304.0
    Current Transfers, Net−252.9−255.9−315.8−344.9−335.9−361.6−380.8−374.5–380.6–391.3
    Current Account Balance–372.9–421.0–316.5–480.4–58.2–12.9–54.7–36.961.889.3
    Balance on Goods and Services
    Advanced Economies–301.2–356.2–204.1–326.447.56.0–104.1–80.398.2176.7
    United States−707.9−752.4−699.1−702.3−383.7−499.4−556.8−534.7–502.1–531.5
    Euro Area1156.8131.5198.3132.1184.1190.0208.3341.3435.9496.0
    Germany145.4161.7233.9227.2160.8186.3189.1203.1204.8207.6
    France−12.6−22.8−36.6−63.2−34.3−42.6−62.8−48.8–49.4–51.4
    Italy0.0−14.4−5.4−15.8−10.6−40.0−32.122.045.653.9
    Spain−57.8−76.6−93.3−88.0−23.1−26.7−10.714.543.565.7
    Japan69.862.983.917.623.074.9−42.8−104.5–89.6–51.5
    United Kingdom−64.8−64.9−73.5−60.4−36.6−50.8−37.3−53.7–36.0–30.5
    Canada45.435.231.026.7−20.1−30.7−22.1−36.3–32.5–29.8
    Other Advanced Economies2199.6231.4255.4259.9280.8321.9346.6307.5322.5324.0
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies−524.8−594.5−465.8−570.1−301.5−402.2−564.8−552.9–459.2–433.2
    Income, Net
    Advanced Economies181.2191.1203.4190.8230.2342.7430.2417.9344.3304.0
    United States67.643.3100.6146.1123.6177.7232.7223.9183.7175.7
    Euro Area1−10.127.8−20.4−79.0−8.132.338.733.26.3–16.0
    Germany30.455.858.847.782.271.582.182.859.257.8
    France29.637.342.849.145.751.162.838.245.547.5
    Italy−2.23.1−1.6−28.5−14.5−11.0−13.0−17.0–18.7–21.3
    Spain−21.3−26.1−41.2−52.2−36.1−26.4−35.8−24.1–18.6–23.2
    Japan103.9118.7139.8155.3135.9141.5176.0179.1163.3155.0
    United Kingdom43.315.938.060.228.820.736.1−3.63.27.9
    Canada−22.3−15.6−17.5−24.3−17.6−22.8−23.4−22.5–21.4–25.1
    Other Advanced Economies2−1.31.0−37.1−67.6−32.3−6.7−29.87.79.26.4
    Memorandum
    Major Advanced Economies250.3258.6360.8405.7384.0428.6553.2481.0414.8397.6

    Calculated as the sum of the individual Euro Area countries.

    In this table, Other Advanced Economies means advanced economies excluding the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.

    Table B16.Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balances on Current Account(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies407.0627.2596.9669.2253.8323.3410.5380.6235.8240.7
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe−60.5−88.5−136.1−159.0−48.1−82.6−119.3−79.4–84.8–90.1
    Commonwealth of Independent States187.594.065.6108.742.969.0109.476.759.047.6
    Russia84.492.371.3103.950.467.597.374.861.251.8
    Excluding Russia3.11.7−5.84.7−7.51.612.21.9–2.2–4.2
    Developing Asia142.7271.0394.9429.4276.8238.897.6108.7138.5182.9
    China132.4231.8353.2420.6243.3237.8136.1193.1223.7258.9
    India−9.9−9.6−15.7−27.9−38.2−45.9−78.2−88.2–77.6–66.1
    Excluding China and India20.348.857.536.771.747.039.63.7–7.7–9.9
    Latin America and the Caribbean32.846.66.7−39.0−30.3−62.8−77.9−104.5–140.6–142.0
    Brazil14.013.61.6−28.2−24.3−47.3−52.5−54.2–74.0–68.6
    Mexico−8.6−7.4−14.3−19.6−7.7−3.2−11.8−14.2–17.7–20.6
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan206.2276.4256.5333.240.0176.2418.1417.2315.9299.6
    Middle East and North Africa207.5281.5262.9346.649.1179.7417.4421.1317.6300.6
    Sub-Saharan Africa−1.727.79.3−4.0−27.6−15.4−17.3−38.3–52.0–57.3
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa−3.04.71.4−13.7−30.1−18.6−12.5−34.6–39.9–46.2
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel348.7472.8416.4582.6138.8316.9629.5615.1474.4433.2
    Nonfuel58.3154.4180.586.7115.06.4−222.4−231.7–236.8–193.7
    Of Which, Primary Products−3.86.75.5−18.5−7.5−9.3−20.6−48.1–55.4–56.1
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies−100.5−114.4−223.2−374.4−178.5−273.9−391.6−447.4–473.6–469.2
    Of Which, Official Financing−17.0−18.3−21.3−36.2−20.0−13.8−12.5−23.3–19.9–20.7
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2007–11−6.1−4.3−13.7−27.0−20.8−33.7−41.2−52.2–56.1–58.0
    Other Groups
    Heavily Indebted Poor Countries−13.9−12.0−16.1−24.7−22.2−19.8−23.3−42.1–48.0–51.3
    (Percent of exports of goods and services)
    AveragesProjections
    1995–20042005–142005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies0.06.710.413.210.59.74.74.74.94.32.62.5
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe−11.3−14.8−15.1−18.7−23.1−22.2−8.5−12.8−15.6−10.4–10.6–10.7
    Commonwealth of Independent States111.911.822.619.511.213.78.210.312.48.46.55.1
    Russia19.517.631.427.718.319.914.715.317.012.610.48.8
    Excluding Russia−4.80.22.61.1−3.01.8−4.10.73.90.6–0.7–1.3
    Developing Asia4.19.19.414.517.316.112.18.02.72.93.54.2
    China8.815.715.821.826.326.618.213.66.58.69.29.8
    India−3.3−11.9−6.1−4.7−6.1−9.5−13.7−12.0−17.3−19.5–16.5–13.1
    Excluding China and India2.14.43.98.18.44.710.75.53.90.4–0.7–0.8
    Latin America and the Caribbean−11.1−3.95.06.00.8−3.8−3.8−6.2−6.3−8.3–11.0–10.9
    Brazil−29.9−11.310.48.70.8−12.3−13.4−20.2−17.8−19.2–25.9–24.1
    Mexico−6.9−3.8−3.7−2.8−4.9−6.3−3.2−1.0−3.2−3.7–4.4–4.9
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan8.621.928.431.525.024.94.114.827.225.319.518.0
    Middle East and North Africa9.322.829.432.926.226.45.215.527.826.120.118.5
    Sub-Saharan Africa−7.9−3.6−0.710.32.9−1.0−9.4−4.1−3.7−8.2–11.0–11.5
    Excluding Nigeria and South Africa−13.0−8.3−2.83.60.9−6.8−19.2−9.6−4.8−13.4–15.1–16.3
    Analytical Groups
    By Source of Export Earnings
    Fuel12.923.331.634.826.227.59.717.426.123.918.816.8
    Nonfuel−4.20.22.14.64.41.82.90.1−3.7−3.7–3.6–2.8
    Of Which, Primary Products−12.1−7.6−3.14.22.9−8.7−4.1−3.9−7.3−17.6–20.0–18.8
    By External Financing Source
    Net Debtor Economies−8.8−9.4−5.5−5.3−8.7−12.3−7.1−8.8−10.5−11.9–12.2–11.5
    Of Which, Official Financing−11.3−8.3−10.5−9.7−9.3−13.4−9.0−5.2−4.3−8.4–6.9–6.7
    Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience
    Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2007–11−12.7−10.0−3.8−2.3−6.0−9.7−9.1−11.9−11.7−14.9–15.6–15.4
    Other Groups
    Heavily Indebted Poor Countries−24.3−20.6−20.2−14.3−16.1−20.6−21.4−15.0−14.5−26.0–29.0–28.8
    Memorandum
    Median
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies−11.3−14.3−7.7−9.7−15.4−19.7−14.4−12.4−13.9−16.8–17.5–15.3

    Georgia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

    Table B17.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Current Account Transactions(Billions of U.S. dollars)
    Projections
    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Emerging Market and Developing Economies
    Exports of Goods3,389.34,126.94,929.16,028.94,649.25,933.17,403.07,714.57,903.98,282.9
    Imports of Goods−2,838.9−3,377.1−4,187.4−5,146.0−4,152.7−5,244.5−6,448.4−6,736.6–7,086.4–7,506.9
    Trade Balance550.4749.8741.6882.9496.5688.5954.7977.9817.5776.0
    Services, Net−85.5−105.6−135.2−190.8−208.6−230.5−293.1−361.9–359.7–333.7
    Balance on Goods and Services464.9644.2606.5692.1287.9458.0661.6616.0457.8442.2
    Income, Net−241.4−242.6−264.2−301.2−284.2−401.0−525.0−487.9–492.7–500.3
    Current Transfers, Net183.5225.6254.6278.3250.0266.2273.8252.5270.8298.8
    Current Account Balance407.0627.2596.9669.2253.8323.3410.5380.6235.8240.7
    Memorandum
    Exports of Goods and Services3,913.54,743.45,684.76,912.85,446.66,876.38,439.98,795.79,059.29,550.4
    Interest Payments162.5198.6243.2254.6227.5240.3285.7282.6296.9312.1
    Oil Trade Balance559.8666.0754.8988.0595.6765.11,001.51,014.3915.1897.1
    Regional Groups
    Central and Eastern Europe
    Exports of Goods313.2376.5469.0567.3439.8510.7613.5613.7640.5670.8
    Imports of Goods−398.2−486.2−619.8−752.9−518.9−618.8−762.3−727.7–758.6–791.4
    Trade Balance−85.0−109.7−150.9−185.5−79.1−108.1−148.8−114.0–118.2–120.6
    Services, Net27.827.534.342.739.839.148.551.456.460.7
    Balance on Goods and Services−57.2−82.2−116.6−142.8−39.3−69.0−100.3−62.6–61.8–60.0
    Income, Net−22.6−29.4−45.4−44.0−35.4−40.1−48.9−43.9–49.4–55.0
    Current Transfers, Net19.423.125.827.826.626.529.927.126.424.9
    Current Account Balance–60.5–88.5–136.1–159.0–48.1–82.6–119.3–79.4–84.8–90.1
    Memorandum
    Exports of Goods and Services400.2472.7590.0715.9569.1643.7764.6765.2801.1839.1
    Interest Payments25.032.647.751.946.746.854.352.454.259.2
    Oil Trade Balance−41.5−55.4−63.5−89.3−56.1−70.4−99.1−103.2–102.7–105.5
    Commonwealth of Independent States1
    Exports of Goods341.4425.8513.5699.5449.3586.3788.1811.7801.3811.9
    Imports of Goods−214.0−276.8−376.9−493.4−324.5−413.4−543.8−579.3–586.9–621.9
    Trade Balance127.4149.0136.6206.1124.8172.9244.4232.4214.4190.0
    Services, Net−17.2−16.7−25.3−29.9−26.0−33.5−39.9−54.6–57.0–60.6
    Balance on Goods and Services110.2132.3111.3176.298.8139.4204.5177.8157.4129.4
    Income, Net−26.8−42.2−48.1−72.0−59.1−73.8−99.2−103.0–101.3–88.0
    Current Transfers, Net4.13.92.44.43.23.54.21.92.96.2
    Current Account Balance87.594.065.6108.742.969.0109.476.759.047.6
    Memorandum
    Exports of Goods and Services387.8482.8584.6790.7524.0669.7886.0919.0909.4924.1
    Interest Payments15.320.827.631.628.228.733.228.727.721.1
    Oil Trade Balance141.2182.0220.8311.6194.7265.2370.3381.6380.7373.5
    Developing Asia
    Exports of Goods1,316.61,620.51,975.32,305.11,959.52,566.73,083.33,253.73,437.73,694.3
    Imports of Goods−1,190.2−1,395.3−1,681.7−2,008.0−1,751.7−2,371.3−2,968.9−3,103.6–3,290.3–3,529.6
    Trade Balance126.4225.2293.5297.2207.7195.3114.4150.1147.4164.8
    Services, Net−8.5−2.010.814.1−10.7−6.5−25.4−46.9–33.0–0.7
    Balance on Goods and Services117.8223.2304.3311.3197.0188.889.0103.1114.4164.1
    Income, Net−52.8−44.0−28.9−15.9−50.2−93.9−138.8−126.8–126.9–151.8
    Current Transfers, Net77.791.8119.5134.0129.9143.9147.3132.4150.9170.7
    Current Account Balance142.7271.0394.9429.4276.8238.897.6108.7138.5182.9
    Memorandum
    Exports of Goods and Services1,517.21,863.62,285.32,665.42,283.72,980.03,551.43,747.53,981.84,318.7
    Interest Payments33.451.359.659.755.366.685.581.299.6112.8
    Oil Trade Balance−107.3−140.7−172.8−257.7−183.5−255.3−388.0−430.5–446.1–452.6
    Latin America and the Caribbean
    Exports of Goods577.2690.3776.1898.6698.2884.81,095.61,112.21,132.91,160.3
    Imports of Goods−496.7−592.1−707.1−859.1−647.4−836.5−1,023.1−1,066.1–1,118.2–1,155.9
    Trade Balance80.598.269.039.550.848.372.546.114.74.4
    Services, Net−17.2−19.5−26.3−35.5−50.0−52.3−66.2−87.1–87.4–84.5
    Balance on Goods and Services63.378.642.64.00.8−4.06.3−40.9–72.7–80.1
    Income, Net−84.0−96.2−103.1−110.5−88.9−119.6−147.4−125.5–131.4–128.2
    Current Transfers, Net53.564.267.267.457.960.863.161.963.566.3
    Current Account Balance32.846.66.7–39.0–30.3–62.8–77.9–104.5–140.6–142.0
    Memorandum
    Exports of Goods and Services655.3777.2877.01,014.1802.91,019.01,228.91,251.41,273.31,307.3
    Interest Payments48.249.954.254.046.146.954.658.154.954.3
    Oil Trade Balance53.662.754.868.145.447.062.463.445.641.3
    Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
    Exports of Goods643.8779.2913.41,209.4847.41,054.41,398.41,510.21,472.61,507.6
    Imports of Goods−385.1−445.9−580.6−758.7−678.1−725.0−800.4−900.4–952.8–1,006.8
    Trade Balance258.6333.4332.9450.7169.3329.4598.0609.8519.8500.8
    Services, Net−46.8−65.1−84.9−117.4−108.2−118.1−139.4−152.4–159.5–167.6
    Balance on Goods and Services211.9268.3248.0333.361.1211.2458.5457.4360.3333.1
    Income, Net−19.2−1.66.9−1.2−11.1−21.4−23.0−21.9–21.3–13.3
    Current Transfers, Net13.59.71.61.2−10.0−13.7−17.5−18.3–23.1–20.2
    Current Account Balance206.2276.4256.5333.240.0176.2418.1417.2315.9299.6
    Memorandum
    Exports of Goods and Services725.5877.71,027.81,337.8973.71,189.81,534.21,647.31,618.71,663.0
    Interest Payments27.531.240.443.840.139.342.143.641.645.1
    Oil Trade Balance446.6537.2615.1824.9514.8672.7923.7967.5901.1901.7
    Sub-Saharan Africa
    Exports of Goods197.2234.6281.7348.9255.0330.2424.1413.0418.9437.9
    Imports of Goods−154.7−180.9−221.2−274.0−232.1−279.5−349.9−359.5–379.6–401.3
    Trade Balance42.553.760.574.923.050.874.253.539.336.7
    Services, Net−23.6−29.7−43.6−64.8−53.5−59.2−70.6−72.3–79.2–81.0
    Balance on Goods and Services18.924.016.910.1−30.5−8.43.6−18.8–39.9–44.3
    Income, Net−36.0−29.2−45.6−57.6−39.5−52.3−67.7−66.9–62.2–63.9
    Current Transfers, Net15.432.938.143.542.445.346.847.450.150.9
    Current Account Balance–1.727.79.3–4.0–27.6–15.4–17.3–38.3–52.0–57.3
    Memorandum
    Exports of Goods and Services227.4269.5320.0388.9293.2374.2474.7465.2474.8498.1
    Interest Payments13.112.813.613.511.212.015.818.619.019.6
    Oil Trade Balance67.180.2100.4130.480.3105.9132.2135.4136.5138.7

    Georgia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

    Table B18.Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Current Account Transactions(Billions of U.S. dollars)